Saturday, 31 October 2015

Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf preview

More from the Breeders Cup, this time the Filly and Mare Turf from American racing form student, Jon da Silva, @creamontop.

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Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Group 1, 1mile 3/16s, US$1.8m
1310 local, 1810 GMT, 0710 AEDST


With the Nassau, Yorkshire Oaks, l'Opera, St Leger and Champions Day F&M all going to 3 yo fillies and Found almost doing the colts in the Irish and UK Champion Stakes and Legatissimo with claims to be the best, Legatissimo is the one to beat. Euro 2nd tier hosses like Cannock Chase, Curvy, Flintshire, Secret Gesture & Mondialiste have all crossed the line first in North America. She is well drawn [3] inside to stalk likely pacesetter Sentiero Italia [2]. The contrary view would be that at a mile the 3yo fillies have been found out to a degree with Esoterique, Amazing Maria and Integral handing out the slappings. In the Matron which Legatissimo won easily Amazing Maria did not give her running. Legatissimo has lost 3 of her 6 races this year to horses who would show at 99/1 here only because the tote board cannot show bigger. Nassau bunny Wedding Vow was murdered in the Secret Gesture Beverley D DQ - one can hardly claim Arabian Queen ran to Golden Horn beating form there. Qualify who denied her the Oaks has hidden in shame after being brutalised by Jack Hobbs in the Irish Derby. She may be the best but I want to oppose at 5/4.

Miss France and Bawina appear to be Euro Group 1.5 even in Fillies company and is without a win since her 1000 Guineas. Both have a high level of form without winning. Queen's Jewel went off 11/8 in the French Oaks only to run a shocker and was not much better in l'Opera. The logic is Head is sending a horse for Lasix as there is no other reason he would send her. Arguably her Saint-Alary early season win as good as almost any. Bawina is a non runner.

Sentiero Italia was badly beaten 3 weeks ago at 3/5 in a Group 1. Her Sands Point win points to her being potentially special but not fresh and loss says not at peak form. She may be lone speed if they revert to forward tactics. Hard Not to Like is felt to want to run on hard going which it will not be here and coming off a poor un. Photo Call bt Sharla Rae and Elektrum last time but is likely not quite good enough on the numbers. Dacita the pride of Chile [as lazy UK comms would say] ran down Tepin (US shortest priced for Mile) on first US start and that is probably why Tepin heads to the Mile.

Secret Gesture and Stephanie's Kitten probably the same horse based on Bev D. Slight preference for the former as she will be more forwardly positioned and is slightly bigger odds.... I'd like to think at least one of this field can beat them. Watsdachances 3rd best horse in the Bev D promoted to winner over these 2 handles ground and distance and might fill out a big Superfecta here.

Talmada Wide draw should see the behinds of plenty of these all the way to finish. 2nd in the EP Taylor which is nice but this race is deep and she looks Group 3.

Conclusion

For me this is the best transatlantic all age turf race on the card for me with top US horses competitive to a degree. Every horse has a flaw bar Legatissimo who could be too good but with so many Grade 1 horses I can't take 5/4 she takes to track, US turf, Lasix and she has lost to weaker fields. 3 I believe could step up to a higher level Sentiero is probably worth a small cover and the Head spinner Queen's Jewel. Dacita with worries about pace and going at 16s in a race too stacked for me to EW is a tentative selection.

Bets
Dacita to win UK 16s
Sentiero small saver at 20s
box exacta them with Legatissimo

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