Skip to main content

Charlie Hall Chase preview

October's a funny time for racing in Britain but jumps season really gets going with the Charlie Hall Chase. This year, be thankful we actually know what distance the race is being run over.

Taking up the challenge is the astute Nick Palfrey, @8palfrey8, and you can read more of his work on his blog.

----------------------

Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase
Grade 2, £100,000, Three Miles 45y
1505 local 0205 GMT

Saturday's renewal of Wetherby's greatest race has a small but very select field for the second consecutive season - In fact I can't remember off the top of my head two better renewals. Menorah attempts win the race again and faces a tough task with his 10lb penalty. Yes, he had to give away the same sort of weight last season but the two horses who benefited the most, Wayward Prince and Medermit, haven't the class that Cue Card, Dynaste and Ballynagour have. These three high class animals are most advantaged by the penalty values in tomorrow's contest which sees Many Clouds and Sam Winner carrying the same burden as Menorah and Holywell giving them 6lbs.

Menorah I can see running well again, he been a terrific servant for his connections but that weight concession will probably be too much for him given that this is a slightly better edition than last year's contest. I think the same comment broadly applies to Many Clouds and Sam Winner also. I also think the trip is on the short side for both these creatures though, they are strong staying types who ideally need further than three miles (I won't go into the controversies that have surrounded the actual distance of this race in the past, I'm going with the published trip of 3m45yds for the purpose of this piece.)

I'm a big fan of Holywell and have taken fancy prices about him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup but he seems to be a spring horse and the rain the track has had today (the ground is now soft) is against him unfortunately. I see the winner of this event coming from the trio on 11st. Cue Card would murder this field at his best but the last time he ran close to his best was almost two years ago when he beat Dynaste by four lengths or so in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. He's had multiple injuries since then and folded tamely behind Don Cossack at Aintree and Punchestown towards the tail end of last season and so is easily passed over at his rather cramped odds.

Dynaste and Ballynagour represent the David Pipe stable and with the weather forecast generally dry from now until race time I expect them both to line-up and fight out the finish. The former has had a pipe (geddit?) opener over hurdles in France which should see him spot on for this and at his best is the second best horse in the race behind Cue Card. Unlike that horse though there is little sign that he is on the downturn having run a stormer behind Silviniaco Conti in last season's King George. I admit the fact that this is his first outing over fences since he was sidelined from the spring Festivals due to injury is not ideal, but at his price (4/1) the other positives he has make him a worthwhile bet. His stable companion is worth a bit of cover if that's your thing, he runs well fresh and might have won the Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April (Menorah and Holywell in behind) but for a bad jump at the fourth last. However I think he's more ground dependant over fences than Dynaste and for that reason with the rain I will leave him alone.

In summary this is a cracking renewal of a famous race and I expect Dynaste to come on top.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...