Skip to main content

Moir Stakes preview

Group 1 sprinting on Grand Final eve in Melbourne, at the night racing spectacle which is Moonee Valley.

The astute judges from Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS, return with the preview.

--------------------------------

Moir Stakes
G1 WFA 1000m
$450,000
1945 local, 1045 BST


PRS Speed Map



As expected in almost all sprint races at this track there is very good speed on paper with three runners wanting the lead. Is more than likely that jockey Damian Lane will be adamant to cross and be the leader or be an equal leader to the outside of either Buffering or Ball Of Muscle. A fast first 400m sectional is expected.

Few runners drawn a little wide may have to shuffle back and settle further back than desired.

Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$22 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.



Only current overlays:
BUFFERING – Is first up off an injury which left him missing the autumn/winter. Won this race first up last preparation beating Lankan Rupee in small field. Will want to lead but is likely to be crossed, is much more pressure here than last year. He is an extremely tough horse though and unlike the 3YO fillies in this race we know he can produce the winning rating required.

FONTITON – First up. Produced some excellent wins as a 2YO, in particular Blue Diamond Prelude. Was then short Blue Diamond favourite and suffered setback in the race. No trials/jumpouts into this interesting. Has shown she has an excellent turn of foot and has a very sharp sprint on her. With age improvement she can win well.

Recommended Bets:
We will be backing the overlays present in the race using excluding Angelic Light, who is expected to drift with the bandages on first up.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…