Thursday, 7 January 2016

Fremantle Pacing Cup preview

The Inter Dominion might have finished a few weeks ago but now it's time for the traditional summer features. Once again Trent Orwin, @themightytrent3, chips in with the preview.

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Retravision Fremantle Pacing Cup
Group 1, $300,000. 2536m
Gloucester Park
2100 local, midnight AEDT

Form Analyst: Trent Orwin
Twitter: @themightytrent3
Website: BettingPro
Form guide

The Fremantle Cup (2536m) at Gloucester Park on Friday night is one of WA’s most prestigious races. I have provided a runner-by-runner guide of the Group 1 feature that outlines the best odds available at the time of writing on Thursday, January 7.

Speed Map:
Bettors Fire has the pace to lead and Beaudiene Boaz is likely to sit outside him. Alternatively, Bettors Fire could hand up to Beaudiene Boaz which would allow the breeze position to be occupied by Lovers Delight.

Assuming Bettors Fire holds up, Devendra will be behind him, Libertybelle Midfrew and Our Blackbird are likely to be three pegs and four pegs respectively. Beaudiene Boaz breezes, John Of Arc settles 1 out 1 back and Waylade 1 out 2 back. Coming three-wide late will be Lovers Delight if he hasn’t found the breeze along with Run Oneover and My Hard Copy.

Runner-by-runner guide:

1. Bettors Fire – $6.50 UBET
His excellent gate speed will ensure he is leading the race for as long as trainer-driver Kyle Harper desires. A recent setback means he could be vulnerable late and with pressure from Beaudiene Boaz, the lead could be on offer to that horse. Races well when driven cold or leading so rates as one of the leading hopes. Each-way chance in the race.

2. Waylade – $10 bet365
A few months ago he looked like the number one or two seed for the Gary Hall Snr stable but his efforts recently have been good without being great. Will be close to midfield after getting shuffled back early and is going to need some luck along with finding his peak form to win here. Suited by the staying distance and is a small each-way hope.

3. John Of Arc – $9 UBET
This horse has speed to burn and could be the quickest point-to-point horse in the race (even quicker than My Hard Copy). Maps perfectly to be 1 out 1 back trailing Beaudiene Boaz or Lovers Delight and he was hitting the line better than anything last start in a 26.7 final quarter. If anything is vulnerable late and he gets luck then expect him to be charging home. Strong each-way chance.

4. Beaudiene Boaz – $2.80 bet365
Superstar four-year-old that is the horse to beat. Has already won five Group 1 contests and has beaten most of this field in recent times. He has been beaten when breezing on a number of occasions so could be vulnerable if he races there for the entirety here. If he finds the lead then it looks game over but even from the breeze, rates as the one to beat.

5. Lovers Delight – $10 CrownBet
Was an excellent second in the Inter Dominion Grand Final behind Lennytheshark but this is much tougher from the draw. Would love to find the lead but would need to get across the Hall Snr runners inside to be any chance of that. The breeze won’t be on offer if Beaudiene Boaz can hold him out at the start and will likely be the horse leading them up three-wide or on the back of Run Oneover. Each-way chance but place may be best.

6. Run Oneover – $18 UBET
Run Oneover is another four-year-old from the Hall Snr stable and he has been a surprise find with enormous runs at his past three starts. Has to go back from his draw and will need to cover extra ground in order to salute. Coming from off the speed to beat Mach Alert last start is a positive but this is much harder. Place chances appear best.

7. Classic American – $101 Ladbrokes
Sit-sprinter that generally finds open class racing too tough for him. The barrier draw hurts his chances and will need plenty of luck to be figuring. Doesn’t look any chance of winning and I’d be shocked to see him run a place.

8. Jason Rulz – $151 Sportsbet
Another sit-sprinter that has been hurt by the wide draw and will settle close to last. Yet to win in WA and couldn’t see it coming in a Group 1 feature from barrier eight. Happy to oppose and deserves to be one of the rank outsiders.

9. My Hard Copy – $13 Sportsbet
One of the quickest closers in WA but from barrier nine, he will be restraining and giving some of the best horses in the race a 15m-30m headstart which looks too big a task. Can win if they run the race upside down and declare war up front, otherwise place chances appear best and he could start well under the odds given his following.

10. Devendra – $7.50 TAB
Won two heats of the Inter Dominion and has an excellent turn of speed. Trailing Bettors Fire could be a benefit or a hindrance as he will rely on that horse keeping him close to the action. The Hall camp will be mindful of this horse and could lock him into a pocket so luck will determine where he finishes. Has to be respected and is an each-way chance.

11. Libertybelle Midfrew – $26 Ladbrokes
WA’s star mare and the only female in the event. Should land the back of Devendra and be three or four back on the fence. She has very little chance of winning from the draw but could be a cheeky place chance at massive odds if the pegline holds up. One to include in wider exotics.

12. Our Blackbird – $81 Sportsbet
He will be too far back in the run to have an impact and running fourth looks to be about his best chance. Will most likely beat a couple of runners home but won’t pose a winning threat at any stage in the run. Throw him in for fourth if playing a first four but it would be a remarkable effort for him to run top three.

13. Mach Alert (1st Emergency) – $51 CrownBet
He would need to draw the fence in order to be any hope of running top three. Hard to give an assessment considering he isn’t in the field at present, but he can’t do work in this company. If he draws wide, forget he is even in the race.

14. Smokey The Bandit (2nd Emergency) – $51 UBET
One of the most popular horses in WA but the grey looks unlikely of gaining a start. Has a very good turn of foot and would need to be close to the action, preferably on the rail, to be finishing close to them. Oppose if he gets a run from barrier three or wider on the front line.

Suggested Bets:
Beaudiene Boaz & John Of Arc to win – bigger stake on Beaudiene Boaz

Ratings:
1. Bettors Fire $6
2. Waylade $14
3. John Of Arc $6.50
4. Beaudiene Boaz $2.80
5. Lovers Delight $16
6. Run Oneover $18
7. Classic American $251
8. Jason Rulz $201
9. My Hard Copy $41
10. Devendra $8.50
11. Libertybelle Midfrew $101
12. Our Blackbird $151
Note: Emergencies not rated

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