Skip to main content

Apollo Stakes preview

The 'autumn' carnival of racing steps into full swing this weekend in Australia with the C.F.Orr Stakes at Caulfield and the Apollo Stakes at Randwick. It's the latter race which has flushed out a new contributor, Paul Nathan, @paulnathan92. Welcome aboard!

----------------------------

Optus Business Apollo Stakes
Group 2, $250,000, 1400m
1625 AEDT, 0525 GMT


1. Who Shot Thebarman.
Classy stayer back from a break. This trip is well short of his optimum. Look for him to be staying on at the end without troubling the eventual placings. He's just here for the run.

2. Magic Hurricane.
British import into his third Aussie prep. Last seen winning the Metropolitan over 2400m. Another who will be looking for further later into his prep however has shown speed since arriving in Australia, winning his debut over course and distance albeit in a weaker race (BM. Goes well on the track form reads 1,4,2,1 look for him to be staying on at the end has a good chance of getting into the placings.

3. Grand Marshall.
Quality stayer back from a break. Needs to go a lot further to get into contention.

4. Dibayani.
X Hong Kong runner resuming after a break ran well on his Aussie debut over 1400m at Caulfield progressed from that running another good race in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes at the Valley over 1600m he will be looking for further in time but has shown speed in he's first Aussie prep which ended in a run to bad to be true. Awkward Barrier in 11 would expect him to be ridden close to the pace which could see him caught 3 wide. Expect him to run a respectable race and be plugging on right to the line. Decent chance of getting into the placings

5. Hauraki.
Nice horse. Last seen running a respectable eighth in the Caulfield Cup at single-figure odds. Another runner who will be looking for further later into his prep. Does not have much chance here for me, was well beaten first- and second-up last campaign but they were also on wet tracks which aren't his favourite. Will be running on, watch and see how he goes. Small chance, trial runs leading into this weren't too bad.

6. Leebaz.
Once again another stayer resuming here has run respectable races over 1400m in the past trialled VERY well for this race. Expect to lead or be up right on the pace look for him to be right there close to home and a few finishing over him. I rate him to have a good chance of getting into the placings. Decent place chance

7. Centre Pivot.
Resuming after a short break since running third at the Gold Coast in the Magic Millions Stayers Cup over 1800m. Will be fitter than most having run on Jan 9 and having trialled for this race on Jan 29. Outclassed here for me, can't see him being a danger. Little chance.

8. Winx.
This horse needs no introduction she's the best horse in Australia she has speed and stamina to suit as shown in her last prep starting over 1300m where she flew home to win in the Theo Marks Stakes, and ending with an effortless win in the Cox Plate over 2040m. Drawn the inside which could cause some problems if the leaders decide to crawl in front, or the rail is off. But she has the tactical speed to get out of any problems she should win here if comes back as good as she was last year. Wins.

9. Gust Of A Wind.
Stayer resuming after running a cracking sixth in the Melbourne Cup. Unlikely to trouble the field here, look out for her over further.

10. Solicit.
Second run back this prep after running second to the classy Our Boy Malachi was no match that day but was staying on well over 1200m. For me, she is the main danger to Winx. Solicit is one of the few horses in the field who can be called a genuine sprinter/miler. Will be fitter for her first run and will be ready to fire here. Gets a gun barrier in four, will sit right on the pace and kick to try and make Winx catch her. Next best winning chance, shouldn't be out of the top three.

11. Bohemian Lily.
Stayer resuming does not have much hope here for me can see her going forward and coming back to them close to home look out for her over further later into prep.

Top 5 Prediction
1st Winx
2nd Solicit
3rd Magic Hurricane
4th Leebaz
5th Dibayani

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

-------------------

Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…