Skip to main content

Coongy Cup preview

Springtime hits fever pitch in Melbourne this weekend with Cup Day at Caulfield. While it's the eponymous Cup taking all the attention, the support card holds some tantalising betting prospects.

Making his debut on the blog at the height of the Melbourne spring, it's welcome aboard to Australian racing form student Callum Gogerly, @_gogs10.

--------------------------

Priceline Pharmacy Coongy Cup
Group 3 Handicap, 2000m, AU$150k
Caulfield R6
1510 AEST, 0510 BST

Prices quoted from Sportsbet at time of writing

Speed: Whenever The Cleaner (2) is racing, you know that you are assured of a solid tempo. Tom Melbourne (6) looks like being the one to sit off him, while the favourite It’s Somewhat (1) looks to get a nice run on paper, one or two back on the fence. Expect every horse to get their chance.

1- It’s Somewhat ($2.60)- Import for the O’Shea yard who is into his fourth prep since being brought to Australia. Often you find these horses improve dramatically once they have had multiple Australian preparations (have you heard of Hartnell??) and he comes down here from Sydney in winning form. You can only beat your opposition and he did that convincingly last start, but you do have to query who he was up against. First time going Melbourne way and negotiating a quirky track at Caulfield as well as 59kg are three factors that he must overcome to salute.

2- The Cleaner ($11)- Shot to cult figure prominence two springs ago and recent runs this prep show that there is still some life in the legs of the 9YO. While his days in the top echelon that saw him compete in consecutive Cox Plates seem over, his recent form has been good enough to warrant consideration in this race. He beat home Caulfield Cup favourite Jameka two runs ago and was 3.8L off Cox Plate contender Black Heart Bart at WFA Group 1 last start. Back to handicap conditions he has to be some hope here.

3- Maurus ($4.60)- Had an extended winter program in Queensland and has basically come back into racing in Melbourne with no break. A significantly improved and eye catching run last start behind Real Love, no doubt appreciating the step up in trip. Best form has been at this distance range, including an Ipswich Cup win. Any rain would be a bonus. Include.

4- Vanbrugh ($5.50)- Highly promising early in its career, but has not seemed to carry on with potential. Admittedly has been running in relatively high grade races. Was never going to be a factor early in prep against Winx and co. but would’ve like to see more last time out. Up to 2000m a positive? First way Melbourne going? I’m not sure what to make here, think I’ll look and see at that quote.

5- Bring Something ($17)- Not a bad effort first up off two nice trials. Was caught on fence/flat footed, but picked up and hit the line nicely (note: before that run was 5: 0-0-0 first up). Interesting to note he was $91 to $41 that day too. Had not come up previous prep/s, but worth remembering he did show talent at 2000m+ early in career. If you’re happy enough to go on that first up run and trials, then he is right in this.

6- Tom Melbourne ($8)- The bookmaker’s horse! It must warm the insides of the bag boy’s when this boy runs around. Has started $4 or under in its past four starts without saluting. He maps to sit second off The Cleaner, which has proven in the past to not necessarily be a good thing due to the pressure that comes on the race from the 800m mark. I’m not sure how genuine he is either. If he wants to win today, he can do it without me.

7- De Little Engine (Scratched)
8- Tarquin (Scratched)

9- Blizzard ($21)- Dour NZ type who ran last in the Moe Cup on Thursday. Would have to improve significantly off that run to figure here.

10- Calvin Williams ($41)- Import for Darren Weir who has been quite disappointing since arriving down under from France. Improved run last time out at Bairnsdale where he was ridden closer to the speed. Expect a more forward position taken today, but would still have to improve significantly to win you would think.

11- Nozomi ($15)- Interesting runner. Excellent form in the staying trips as a 3YO, winning the Geelong Classic and placing to Preferment in a Derby. Was a strange win last start, rider committed early and was left a sitting duck, but could not be reeled in, admittedly in BM84 grade. The further he goes the better.

12- Rose of Virginia ($101)- Another runner from across the ditch. Placed in an Auckland Cup in March. Not today, but keep an eye on going forward: 2800mm race on Cup Day or Sandown Cup (3200mm)??.

13- Honorius ($41)- October 5, 2013. Yes, that was the last day Honorius saluted the judge first. If he broke through here you’d just have to dip your hat and say “that’s racing” and move on. Not for me.

Tips: Slightly tricky race to assess. It seems that the favourites are a little too short in the market. I think The Cleaner out in front making his own luck will at least provide something to chase and make whoever wants to beat him earn it. Bring Something can run a race at big odds, while Maurus and It’s Somewhat are clearly chances as well.

1. The Cleaner
2. Bring Something
3. Maurus
4. It’s Somewhat

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

The Cup review

James McDonald feels the emotion of winning the Melbourne Cup on Verry Elleegant. (photo credit Darrian Traynor/Getty Images) With every man and his dog doing Cup previews these days, perhaps a postmortem of the race provides more value - at least for these more serious about the game or want something to refer back to in 363 days' time. It was great to see Flemington basking in the warm spring sun, with no threat of rain which buggers up the confidence you have in the state of the track, an integral part of betting on horses. The crowd was back, at least about 10% of the normal Cup day crowd, but 10,000 more than were allowed last year. Let us never have to deal with these restrictions again in our lifetimes. The TV coverage - well, um, ugh. On Derby Day, I was able to watch the racing.com stream in the UK while Sky Sports Racing kept to their normal NSW-controlled Sky Racing Aus coverage which denies that Victoria and South Australia exist. For Cup Day, they switched to the Chann