Skip to main content

The Melbourne Cup preview - part 3, the bets!

And now for the important bit! I hope you've read the rest of the preview, otherwise it feels like I've wasted a lot of time...

Runners #1-13
Runners #14-24

SPEED MAP

Viewing from inside the course after about 500m, still well short of the first turn.



Expecting a solid early pace where they string out passing the post the first time, no notable interference and any horse who wants to get in, can. The above graphic probably gets stretched even further if there is genuine competition for the lead. But pace maps are hard enough to nail in a six-horse race let alone a 24-runner handicap worth Steve Austin (the original). Last year's map was all based around early speed and then Kingfisher got smashed out of the gates and it all went tits up, chaos theory reigned and a 100/1 shot got the chocolates.

There are enough out & out stayers in this field to want a war of attrition. And whether it's deemed team tactics or not, when you have a big hand from Godolphin and Lloyd Williams, they will ride to set up a contest for the best horse to prevail.

Two horses get into this race 'light' - Hartnell and Oceanographer, meaning if the handicapper had another go at setting their weights now, they'd both go up two to four kilos. Both possess the sprint to catch the leaders off a solid pace, if they avoid those falling off the pace from the 800m and are in position to unwind as they straighten. Oceanographer unleashed a ridiculous 56.81 for the last 1000m on Saturday, that'd win decent quality sprint races but this field is much stronger. Hartnell has been set for this race and will be much better suited in the wide open spaces of Flemington rather than the wet camber of the Valley.

The Japanese horse will get them running along, he has no interest in the Australian sit-sprint style, or the European gradual build-up of the speed. Tommy Berry knows if he can run them off their legs, most of them will lose their acceleration when it counts. But, if he happens to miss the start, it could mess the speed hypothesis up completely.

Ratings, in predicted finishing order
Oceanographer
Hartnell
Curren Mirotic
Almandin
Secret Number
Who Shot The Barman
Wicklow Brave
Our Ivanhowe
Grey Lion
Big Orange
Qewy
Bondi Beach
Exospheric
Grand Marshal
Almoonqith
Heartbreak City
Jameka
Sir John Hawkwood
Beautiful Romance
Rose of Virginia
Pentathlon
Assign
Gallante
Excess Knowledge

which leaves a trifecta something like this:

6,20
x
2,3,6,7,8,17,19,20,21
x
1,2,3,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,23


$72 for 50%

Work out your own win and place bets around the top few. Best of luck everyone!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term ' Ponzi scheme ' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up. So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done. T