Skip to main content

The Melbourne Cup preview - part 3, the bets!

And now for the important bit! I hope you've read the rest of the preview, otherwise it feels like I've wasted a lot of time...

Runners #1-13
Runners #14-24

SPEED MAP

Viewing from inside the course after about 500m, still well short of the first turn.



Expecting a solid early pace where they string out passing the post the first time, no notable interference and any horse who wants to get in, can. The above graphic probably gets stretched even further if there is genuine competition for the lead. But pace maps are hard enough to nail in a six-horse race let alone a 24-runner handicap worth Steve Austin (the original). Last year's map was all based around early speed and then Kingfisher got smashed out of the gates and it all went tits up, chaos theory reigned and a 100/1 shot got the chocolates.

There are enough out & out stayers in this field to want a war of attrition. And whether it's deemed team tactics or not, when you have a big hand from Godolphin and Lloyd Williams, they will ride to set up a contest for the best horse to prevail.

Two horses get into this race 'light' - Hartnell and Oceanographer, meaning if the handicapper had another go at setting their weights now, they'd both go up two to four kilos. Both possess the sprint to catch the leaders off a solid pace, if they avoid those falling off the pace from the 800m and are in position to unwind as they straighten. Oceanographer unleashed a ridiculous 56.81 for the last 1000m on Saturday, that'd win decent quality sprint races but this field is much stronger. Hartnell has been set for this race and will be much better suited in the wide open spaces of Flemington rather than the wet camber of the Valley.

The Japanese horse will get them running along, he has no interest in the Australian sit-sprint style, or the European gradual build-up of the speed. Tommy Berry knows if he can run them off their legs, most of them will lose their acceleration when it counts. But, if he happens to miss the start, it could mess the speed hypothesis up completely.

Ratings, in predicted finishing order
Oceanographer
Hartnell
Curren Mirotic
Almandin
Secret Number
Who Shot The Barman
Wicklow Brave
Our Ivanhowe
Grey Lion
Big Orange
Qewy
Bondi Beach
Exospheric
Grand Marshal
Almoonqith
Heartbreak City
Jameka
Sir John Hawkwood
Beautiful Romance
Rose of Virginia
Pentathlon
Assign
Gallante
Excess Knowledge

which leaves a trifecta something like this:

6,20
x
2,3,6,7,8,17,19,20,21
x
1,2,3,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,23


$72 for 50%

Work out your own win and place bets around the top few. Best of luck everyone!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. ===============================================
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengths behind P…

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2019

We're back again for the greatest race on turf, the world's richest staying race and the only race in the world which creates a public holiday for millions of locals.




Once again a fine international field has been assembled and it's worth a deep look at the race. So get a cuppa and find a comfortable seat to plough your way through my preview!

--------------------------------

The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)


1. Cross Counter
Trainer - Charlie Appleby (one previous Cup win)
Jockey - William Buick
Breeding - Teofilo - Waitress
Drawn 5, Weight 57.5kg

Last year's impressive winner who doesn't get the 3yo weight advantage this time. Won first up at Meydan in March but has run fourth, third, fourth in the big set weights staying races in England and Ireland, never quite making it as the next big staying star. While running close behind Stradivar…