Skip to main content

The Melbourne Cup preview - part 3, the bets!

And now for the important bit! I hope you've read the rest of the preview, otherwise it feels like I've wasted a lot of time...

Runners #1-13
Runners #14-24

SPEED MAP

Viewing from inside the course after about 500m, still well short of the first turn.



Expecting a solid early pace where they string out passing the post the first time, no notable interference and any horse who wants to get in, can. The above graphic probably gets stretched even further if there is genuine competition for the lead. But pace maps are hard enough to nail in a six-horse race let alone a 24-runner handicap worth Steve Austin (the original). Last year's map was all based around early speed and then Kingfisher got smashed out of the gates and it all went tits up, chaos theory reigned and a 100/1 shot got the chocolates.

There are enough out & out stayers in this field to want a war of attrition. And whether it's deemed team tactics or not, when you have a big hand from Godolphin and Lloyd Williams, they will ride to set up a contest for the best horse to prevail.

Two horses get into this race 'light' - Hartnell and Oceanographer, meaning if the handicapper had another go at setting their weights now, they'd both go up two to four kilos. Both possess the sprint to catch the leaders off a solid pace, if they avoid those falling off the pace from the 800m and are in position to unwind as they straighten. Oceanographer unleashed a ridiculous 56.81 for the last 1000m on Saturday, that'd win decent quality sprint races but this field is much stronger. Hartnell has been set for this race and will be much better suited in the wide open spaces of Flemington rather than the wet camber of the Valley.

The Japanese horse will get them running along, he has no interest in the Australian sit-sprint style, or the European gradual build-up of the speed. Tommy Berry knows if he can run them off their legs, most of them will lose their acceleration when it counts. But, if he happens to miss the start, it could mess the speed hypothesis up completely.

Ratings, in predicted finishing order
Oceanographer
Hartnell
Curren Mirotic
Almandin
Secret Number
Who Shot The Barman
Wicklow Brave
Our Ivanhowe
Grey Lion
Big Orange
Qewy
Bondi Beach
Exospheric
Grand Marshal
Almoonqith
Heartbreak City
Jameka
Sir John Hawkwood
Beautiful Romance
Rose of Virginia
Pentathlon
Assign
Gallante
Excess Knowledge

which leaves a trifecta something like this:

6,20
x
2,3,6,7,8,17,19,20,21
x
1,2,3,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,23


$72 for 50%

Work out your own win and place bets around the top few. Best of luck everyone!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...