Skip to main content

Australian Guineas preview

The feature event at Flemington this weekend is the 3yo classic, the Australian Guineas. A different source for the preview this time, and providing a new angle on the analysis is Adrian Heilmann, @adrianheilmann, a well-travelled stablehand who used to look after the mighty Trending for us at the Jeremy Gask stable in the UK. Welcome aboard!

---------------------

Australian Guineas
Flemington, R7
Group 1, AU$750,000, 1600m
1630 local, 0530 GMT


Prized Icon- last year's VRC Derby winner who comes into this second up after a even run first up in the Hobartville. The step up to the mile and a good barrier helps his chances but for me he had more chance of staying in Sydney and winning the Randwick Guineas.

Divine Prophet- looked a bit plain first up in the Orr at Caulfield albeit against older horses at WFA. His Caulfield Guineas win tells us he has the class to win this and you can be assured being trained by the Hawkes team, he would have come on a lot from his run in the Orr. Drawn 10 here I envision him somewhere midfield with cover in the run and being presented late, with luck should be right in the finish.

Seaburge- is the horse who can improve a lot on his run in the CS Hayes Stks. There was money for him then suggesting the stable were happy with what he had been showing them at home, his form ties in with Hey Doc (fav) after splitting him and Divine Prophet in the Caulfield Guineas in the spring.

Hey Doc- was lucky enough to have a bit to do with this bloke when working at Kidalton Park last year. He's a gorgeous type that oozes quality, super impressive winning the CS Hayes Stks, showing a great turn of foot and putting the opposition away very quickly. Drawn ideally here in gate two where Luke Currie can place him where he wants and I can only see bad luck preventing him winning this. Clear top pick.

Morton's Fork- looks to come into this ready to peak third up after solid runs this time in, appears to be looking for the mile now. Sandown Guineas winner in the spring but a horror draw makes it tough, although has the services of C. Williams to overcome that. Guessing he will be snagged back and ridden near enough to last and ridden for luck.

Attention- IMO the danger to the favourite. Was very good in the Orr, beaten just on a length behind a serious WFA horse in Black Heart Bart. Looks to be the race the stable have set him for this time in and they are brilliant at getting them to peak on grand final day. Settles in the first four here and will take a lot of running down. Good each-way bet.

Oak Door- has had a excellent prep resulting in a tough win last time out in the Autumn Stks. Has been dealt a tough draw and I've always had my doubts about horses by Commands running out a strong mile.

So Si Bon- positives are a mile at Flemington and Oliver sticks with him, but for me he will find some of these too slick and classy.

Anaheim- nice Fastnet Rock colt who looks progressive. Listed winner here over the spring carnival, from a good stable and at the price you could do much worse then having a few dollars each way on this fellow and throwing him in your multiples.

Throssell- glue-on shoes on suggest issues with his feet so the pen goes straight through his name.

Inside Agent- his three runs at Flemington have all been good including a win and a second at Listed level. Was good behind Hey Doc in the CS Hayes Stks last start but drawn awkwardly here and needs to find a fair bit to turn the tables on Hey Doc.

Snitzon - $51 seems over the odds and he is the best roughie in the race. Class is a question mark but I don't think he got around Caulfield last start. Back to Flemington suits and draws a favourable gate.

Land Of Plenty - although having won just the one race, he has put up a couple of nice performances including a second in the Stutt Stks behind Hey Doc in the spring and a strong third to the same horse here in the CS Hayes. I'm sure will run well but I'm thinking a place chance only.

Harlow Gold- nice filly who comes into this second up off a nice third resuming here in the Vanity. Drawn to get a lovely run in transit, won't be easy taking on a few of these boys here so I'll be risking her.

Legless Veuve- good strong filly multiple Group winner draws a nice gate but suspect at the mile in my opinion.

Furhyk- love this filly; tough, genuine, knows how to find the line in great form. What else can you say? Big chance to topple the boys.

Theanswermyfriend- looks promising by a great sire, drawn OK but prefer in something easier.

Redouble- has shown ability on occasions from a great stable who you can never disregard but looks up against it here if gaining a start.

Hardham- outclassed.

SELECTIONS
Hey Doc
Fuhryk
Attention

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…