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Blamey Stakes preview

It's almost time for the Flat season in Europe and it's right in the heat of the action on the sunny side of the equator. While it's raining cats, dogs and hamsters in Sydney for the Golden Slipper, it'll be gorgeous weather yet again in the world's most liveable city.

Taking on the Blamey Stakes is astute Australian form analyst, Callum Gogerly, @_gogs10.

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Incognitus Blamey Stakes
Group 2, AU$200,000, 1600m
Flemington Saturday, 1505 local, 0405 GMT


Conditions: The state of the Flemington track has been hotly debated over the past two meetings. Clearly, the inside has been the place to be and it hasn’t made for the most attractive racing. To his credit, track manager Mick Goodie has come out and stated that he underestimated the effect of mowing at slightly different lengths. He has said that the track should race more evenly this week, the rail coming out to the 3m mark should certainly aid things. A little rain around on Thursday, but the track should be in the “good” range yet again.

Speed: Not one iota of speed engaged in this race on paper. Sir Isaac Newtown raced handy in a Caulfield Cup, but first up at 1600m is another story. Harlem has been racing over longer trips in Europe so I doubt he could show the zip to lead this field. The other locals aren’t known leaders. Messy.

Black Heart Bart- Scratched

Palentino- Never really stood a chance last start with the slow tempo, but was my no means poor in the run home. He gets back “home” where he has done his best work before and it looks like the mile will be tailor made for him. He ran right past Black Heart Bart in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this T/D in the spring. Looks like he’s ticking over nicely, value runner.

He Or She- Last year’s winner of the race back to defend his crown. Hit the line nicely to score here first up. He performed admirably at G1 level in a handful of starts throughout the spring placing on two occasions. He might not have the out and out class of some of these, but he gets conditions to suit (Flemington/Mile). He could be the absolute blowout hope.

Sir Isaac Newton- Team Williams galloper resuming for the first time as an Australian-trained horse. Was well spruiked in the Caulfield Cup but was possibly a little disappointing (over-raced). The stable tend to give their gallopers a one or two run autumn before setting them for a bigger spring. Pass today.

Real Love- Generally reliable mare who has been building up nicely this prep. Interesting to see that they are coming back to the 1600m after last starting running at the 1800m. I’ve always regarded her as at her best at 2000m and above. If the race is run as slow as is expected on paper then she’ll face a really difficult past to run over them in the straight.

Tosen Stardom- Ex-Japanese galloper who put in a bottler first up, only to just miss to Black Heart Bart. That was what you wanted to see after an injury enforced lay off. Would have met Black Heart Bart 4kg better for that effort. If he doesn’t have a case of “second up syndrome” and isn’t too far off them at the turn, he looks like he is the one to beat given the conditions of the race.

Harlem- Has never raced at a distance under 2000m, not unusual for a British import. I’m sure the Hayes/Dabernig yard have trained a little speed into his legs, but to win this first up would be a total shock.

Tips: These small fields can often be tricky races and this doesn’t look to be any different. Provided he is sound and came through the first up run well, then I’m with Tosen Stardom. He’s always shown promise when he has run in Australia in the past and with the weight swing on some key rivals, he looks like he will get his chance to break through for the first time in Australia today. Both Palentino and He Or She will benefit from getting to the 1600m and loom as the most logical challengers.

1. Tosen Stardom
2. Palentino
3. He Or She

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The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)


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