Skip to main content

Cranbourne Gold (Pacing) Cup

It's been a great few weeks of harness racing in Australia, including the Miracle Mile & NSW Derby last weekend at Menangle. This weekend, the spotlight returns south with the running of the Cranbourne Cup, one of the nation's finer provincial trophies. Returning to the blog with his analysis is racecalling prodigy Luke Humphreys, @worldracingluke.

-----------------

Cranbourne Gold Cup
FFA 2555m, mobile
Group 2, $75,000
Cranbourne, 2120 local, 1020 BST

ODDS LISTED ARE PERSONAL ASSESSMENT

1 Hotasel (25/1): Has been getting a lot better this time in and racing like himself this campaign, compared to last. No luck in G3 Charlton Cup on Sunday. From this gate he would be hoping to finish first four as he should get one of the nicest runs in the race.

2 Kotare Roland (100/1): Model of consistency in these country cups and was fifth last year however disappointing in his last two country cup runs before a unlucky 9th in the Pure Steel at the end of January. First-up for just over a month here and won a trial at Yarra Glen on Sunday morning however beat his stablemate. Last win was in Boort Cup. Will he be fit enough is the question.

3 Flaming Flutter (9/4): As been as good as ever since returning from Western Australia. Three runs back and has finished fourth in a strong FFA, won the G3 Terang Cup, and a game second in the G2 Bendigo Cup. Draws prominently here and should be up there all of the way. Third in 2014.

4 Maximan (9/4): Looks the clear leader and has been terrific in his three runs back. Second to Have Faith In Me in the Pure Steel before turning tables with him the week after and whilst on paper his Bendigo Cup run looks poor he did a lot of work in the first lap in a fast lead time. Should be leading and will be hard to run down. Eigthth in 2014.

5 Im Corzin Terror (14/1): Tonight he makes his 28th start in a Country Cup in this state. Finished third in 2013, sixth in 2014 and second 12 months ago and all three times has been unlucky. Terrific second in G3 Charlton Cup on Sunday and the draw isn’t great but he will go close as you’d expect.

6 Cold Major (200/1): Hasn’t been racing at his best for a while and called his recent Bendigo trial which wasn’t great. First-up here.

7 Looks Like Heaven (200/1): Good sit-sprint mare that ran fourth in the Terang Cup however she draws poorly here and I would’ve thought would have no chance.

8 Smudge Bromac (40/1): Hit the line strongly after an economical run in the G2 Bendigo Cup. What a horse he has been, 11 year old that makes start 208 and his 32nd start in a Country Cup in this state. Should get a nice peg line run and just needs luck in the straight to go well.

9 Lets Elope (50/1): Two times Tasmania Cup winner. Never got into the Hamilton Cup and then was disappointing up at Mildura before a game fifth in the Charlton Cup. Outclassed by a couple here.

10 Milly Perez (11/2): Super mare. Third in G1 Ladyship Cup for the Mares three back and then was 9th in G2 Bendigo Cup and then after a soft run in the G3 Charlton Cup she got into the clear at the perfect time to swamp them. Terrific turn of foot when the race is run right and could get a nice run into it.

11 My Kiwi Mate (9/4): Good horse. Third on Hunter Cup night behind Maximan but his last two runs his been right back to his best with a gutsy second to Flaming Flutter in the G3 Terang Cup and then had the perfect run into it in the G2 Bendigo Cup to swamp Flaming Flutter. I expect Flaming Flutter and Maximan to go nose for nose throughout and I think he can swamp them over the top and do it again.

12 Stunning Grin (200/1): Good horse when in front. Was a HUGE drop back in class last time and despite drawing the worst barrier was much too good for them. In this class he needs to draw the front row and he has drawn outside the second line so his race is more than likely over before it started now.

Ratings: (11) MY KIWI MATE – (10) MILLY PEREZ – (4) MAXIMAN – (3) FLAMING FLUTTER – (1) HOTASEL– (5) IM CORZIN TERROR – (8) SMUDGE BROMAC – (9) LETS ELOPE – (2) KOTARE ROLAND – (7) LOOKS LIKE HEAVEN

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…