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Flemington R6 preview - TAB Rewards Stakes

Time for some new blood on the blog this week and a meeting at Flemington is the perfect venue for it. Please welcome to the blog @puntingstars. Read more of their work on their website.

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TAB Rewards Stakes
Flemington R6, 1400m
Group 3, AU$150,000
Saturday 1550 AEDT, 0450 GMT


A competitive Saturday level race with some proven weight-for-age (WFA) horses in the field. Not really many notable gear changes accept that Hooked will race with the blinkers off today which may indicate that he needs the run and will be given the chance to settle.

The speed in the race will come from Sadaqa and Kirani while Kenjorwood is at his best when chasing a testing tempo as is He Or She who presents here first-up at a distance short of what is his best winning range but he does have very sound WFA form from the Spring.

The really interesting map runner as noted earlier is Hooked who has lead them up and run well in Group 1 company before in both Sydney and Melbourne but was kept very cold in a recent trial. Does he go forward or look for cover and a cosy run this time around?

After four runs at 1600m or above Kenjorwood returns to 1400m after a 66-day break. Tough horse that is good enough to win but doesn't appear to have the platform to run near his peak in this race.

He Or She was 5.5 lengths of Black Heart Bart at Group 1 level fresh at 1400m last prep, that effort would likely be good enough here.

Hooked is a genuine 1400m horse at his best but hasn't captured anywhere near a peak rating for a long, long time. Looks a risk at this stage and taking up too much market percentage.

Charlie Boy gets Brett Prebble aboard but has only placed once over the 1400m trip and is a non-winner. Hard to price this horse with much confidence and looking at the current odds we are happy to risk once again.

Grande Russo will be one of the horses trailing the speed, dropping back from the one run at 1600m he has the platform to run close to his peak and is a genuine winning chance in the race. Confident he runs well but might be a roll or too short in the current market.

Zebrinz looks to have returned this prep in great order but his racing style makes it hard to get excited about the $4.80 currently on offer.

Inspector would have to run a career best figure to win this and is a risk here second-up while Sadaqa with Damien Oliver is set up to run close to his best rating and is a small overlay at the $10 currently on offer.

The gap between he and Zebrinz is too big in the market most likely due to Zebrinz beating him home last time around. Different race shape and situation here and there should only be a few market percentage points between them.

Kirani rises up to 1400m for the first time in over a year and will likely need both Hooked and He Or She to not go forward and pressure the leaders to be able to feature in the finish.

Finally we have Orient Line who can run a strong 1400m but might be a run short of producing his best, even at a peak rating we'd prefer others in the race.

Suggested betting plan (to a 100 unit bank)

He Or She @ $4 (assessed at $3.20) x 1 unit win
Grande Russo @ Top Fluc (assessed at $5.00) x 0.3 unit win
Sadaqa @ $10 (assessed at $8) x 0.2 unit win

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1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

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