Neptune Novices Hurdle preview

And back again we go! This is where it gets difficult, at least from my angle. Backing up day after day, with only 24hr decs for most races, makes it bloody hard to do the form properly. This race is the main competition to the Supreme Novices' - with Melon going down yesterday, has Harry Fry made the right decision with Neon Wolf? We'll know just after 1.30...

Saddling up for the preview is recent addition to the blog Alex Peperell, @al_peps. Start the day right with this great analysis...

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Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle
Grade 1, £125,000, about 2m5f
Cheltenham Wednesday 1330 GMT 0030 AEDT

To kick off the second day of the greatest show on turf we have the 2m5f Neptune Novices’ Hurdle. This looks like it could be a very competitive race with some potential superstars embedded within the declarations. It’s a shame Finian’s Oscar has picked up an injury and misses this contest, but he is one to look forward to next season.

Neon Wolf heads the market and with good reason, he looked imperious last time out when hammering Elgin at Haydock. The vibes coming from the yard and jockey Noel Fehily would fill you with confidence if you already fancy this horse. Unbeaten in four starts including a point to point he certainly looks the one to beat, he jumps well and won’t have a problem staying the trip. If you are looking for a reason not to back him you would look at the fact he hasn’t been to Cheltenham and he hasn’t experienced good ground, personally I don’t feel either will be an issue.

Alan King’s horses weren't firing at the festival last year and he will be hoping to chalk up more winners this time around. Messire Des Obeaux looks to hold strong claims as he has already won a Grade 1 this season in the Challow Hurdle. He beat some good horses that day in Baltazar D’allier and Ami Desbois quite comfortably, prior to that he beat Ballyandy in a Grade 2 at Sandown. Giving 8lbs to Keeper Hill last time out he performed admirably to only go down a neck and that rival re-opposes again here but based on that run the form should be reversed off level weights. A seventh in last season's Fred Winter means he has experience of the track and he might be able to outrun his odds.

The Irish have a number of worthy contenders to challenge the British horses and Bacardys leads the line. His Bumper form is very strong with a third here at last season's festival, a win in the Aintree Bumper and a third at Punchestown behind Blow By Blow and Moon Racer. On his latest run he just got the better of stablemate Bunk Off Early in the Deloitte and this extra distance should suit him really well, he has festival form and shouldn’t be overlooked.

Shattered Love looks like a very strong candidate for Gordon Elliot and is potentially overpriced at 14/1. Her form ties in closely with Airlie Beach and Let’s Dance (at the time of writing I’m not sure where the latter runs, wherever she lines up she has a great chance) and those two are well regarded. Third in what looks like a strong Mares Bumper at Aintree last season that race is working out well and she beat Forge Meadow easily last time out who has subsequently won a Grade 2 by eight lengths. With her 7lb allowance I think she has a cracking chance.

Willoughby Court wasn’t too far behind Bacardys in the Aintree Bumper but based on his victories he would be much better suited to a bit of cut in the ground and I don’t believe he is going to get that here.

1) Neon Wolf
2) Shattered Love
3) Messire Des Obeaux

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track. There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------

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