Skip to main content

Randwick Guineas preview

Amazingly after a week of rain in Sydney, racing will go ahead at Randwick today, with the lush surface rated a Heavy 9. Watch out for the swimmers!

Preview from racecalling prodigy Luke Humphreys, @worldracingluke.

-------------------

Randwick Guineas
3YO, 1600m, Turf
Group 1, AU$1,000,000
Randwick, 1630 local, 0530 GMT
ODDS LISTED ARE FROM TAB BEFORE SCRATCHINGS

1 Prized Icon (6/1): SCR

2 Man From Uncle (5/1): Continues to improve. Finished off his first campaign coming from the back in a LR for the 3YO over 1400m on Stakes Day at Flemington. This time in, his two from two, with a G3 Eskimo Prince victory over 1200m at Randwick before having the run of the race in the Hobartville and getting there in the closing stages to score. Toughest test to date but up to the challenge.

3 Inference (5/1): A horse that continues to improve but such as the toppy will be looking more towards the longer distance classics. Got to the line strongly in the G2 Hobartville and will be doing so again here. Whether that’s good enough to win we’ll find out but he is definitely a top horse.

4 Echo Effect (17/2): A horse that has improved and looks one of the pace angles. Career-best nose second in G2 Hobartville when almost leading all the way. Nice horse but just wonder whether up the straight he will be found wanting.

5 Comin’ Through (15/4): Good horse that was going terrific last preparation but has had every hope the last two times in the G3 Eskimo Prince and G2 Hobartville. Plus that Joao Moreira flies in from Hong Kong to ride but will certainly need to reverse form with a couple of these but should improve.

6 Acatour (12/1): Hit the line ok in the Hobartville. Won three of his first four before going up to Black Type level. Not sure if he is quite up to this level but a place hope.

7 Captain Duffy (100/1): Looking for further and weakened badly first-up after working way too hard, will be outclassed over trip.

8 Land Of Plenty (25/1): SCR

9 Malaise (14/1): Second in G3 C S Hayes last time but form wasn’t much chop before that. Unders 14/1.

10 Manolo Blahniq (70/1): Started favourite in last year’s Karaka Million however since that run has done absolutely nothing however last time did too much work.

11 Harper’s Choice (16/1): First Black Type run today and is also dropping down in trip, second with a big weight last time however. Too many question marks.

12 Hardham (70/1): Terrific return to racing when savaging the line in the C S Hayes. Another one at good value.

13 Impavido (25/1): Massive class rise for this and whilst it was unlucky indeed last time it’s surely no chance at this level.

14 Invincible Gem (17/2): Certainly one of the pace angles here and continues to improve with a strong G3 success over the C&D last time where it did all the work and broke the hearts easing up. Rising in class again but could be rather good.

Ratings: (2) MAN FROM UNCLE – (14) INVINCIBLE GEM - (12) HARDHAM – (8) LAND OF PLENTY – (5) COMIN’ THROUGH – (4) ECHO EFFECT– (3) INFERENCE – (6) ACATOUR – (1) PRIZED ICON – (9) MALAISE

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…