Skip to main content

Brocklesby review - Division II

Doncaster 4.45 Sat Apr 1
Brocklesby Stakes, Div II, Class 4
5f
1m1.31s (slow by 3.41s on RP standards)
Good to Soft.

Requinto Dawn, Apr 19 foal. Started well, parked behind the leaders until halfway. Angled into the clear as leaders faded and kicked away for an impressive win. Ran fastest sectionals for each of the last three furlongs. Should be more to come.

The Love Doctor, Mar 11. From the final crop of the now-deceased Elnadim. A little wayward getting bumped around in the pack and never really settled. Being pushed along from the 3f, much earlier than third and fourth but stuck on well to claim second near the line. Backed from 15/2 into 9/2, stable obviously think plenty of him. Will be better if able to settle.

Black Orange Apr 21. Unwanted at the sales, already with cheekpieces and a 7lb claimer. Jumped well, sat up on the pace and fought on well at the finish. Winner looks smart and was only just edged out of second near the line. Can't see him going to Royal Ascot, but there will be a race or two for him somewhere.

Hellovaqueen, Apr 6. Filly by same sire as Mrs Danvers and Mister Trader (won first Irish 2yo race of last season), so hopes were up for a speedy debut. From a Somerset yard which has won this race three times in past ten years. Jumped well, sat up on the pace and weakened late. Showed talent.

Cruel Clever Cat Mar 12. 25/1 shot from small yard in decent form. Jumped OK, squeezed early and lost stride. Didn't appear to relish sitting behind the pace and wobbled around a bit to find room. Lost momentum again when leader edged left, has no confidence yet racing in a pack. Never shirked the task, couple of cracks with the whip for education and worked home OK. Not beaten far, worth keeping an eye on. Trainer won a few races with her half-sister, watch for her as she learns more about racing.

Jurisprudance Jan 10. Clearly the oldest in the field, and had the benefit of race experience last week at Saint Cloud, running third in a field of 17. Flew the gates from barrier 2, set the pace but came under pressure 2.5f out. Ridden out with hands & heels the whole way, not over-taxed once out of contention.

Quick Skips Lad, Apr 4 - missed start, slow to begin, soon last. Ran fastest sectional from 4f-3f. Gelded already, not a good sign. Trainer has 2% record with 2yos on turf over past five years. Kept on OK, decent run for a 66/1 shot.

Captain Kissinger May 29. Trainer sent two runners to France last week for the first 2yo race of the season, fair to assume this colt isn't top of the stable's juveniles. Slow to begin, but just wanted to go flat out once up and running. Started losing touch 3f out and went steadily backwards from there.

Bee Machine Feb 10, 50k yearling. Jumped well, jockey tried to restrain him to get some cover but just wanted clear air. So instead of sitting behind The Love Doctor, he tried to go around him and got left behind. Beaten a long way.

One Last Hug, Mar 14 - slow to begin, always out the back, never improved. Yard hasn't had a 2yo winner for at least five years, and his other one was tailed off in the first division. Puzzled why anyone would give a 2yo to a stable with such stats.

Move To The Front Feb 10. Woeful performance. Jumped well, then completely allergic to racing with other horses. Resented being near any other runner, horrible ride for Adam Kirby. Must have done something on the gallops to start 7/2, couldn't just be for the trainer & jockey combination. Gelding operation might be significantly sooner than originally planned.

KEY POINTS

Can follow a few out of this - Requinto Dawn will go to better races, The Love Doctor won't be far behind, while Black Orange, Cruel Clever Cat and Quick Skips Lad can win at the right level if placed well.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…