Skip to main content

Kempton Sat Apr 15 2yo race review

Kempton 2.00 Sat Apr 15
EBF Novice Stakes
5f, Class 4, 1m1.74s
(slow by 3.04s)
Standard

Plunger, Mar 31. Dam very precocious 2yo, winning four of her first six starts including a Listed and a G3 in France, peaking at OR109. Sat outside the leader after interference out of the gates. Challenged on straightening under confident ride, took control, kept on nicely.

Dragon's Teeth, Apr 15. Backed up from the weaker division of the Brocklesby where he led and found nothing under pressure. Well backed into 2/1 (they bet 5/1 in the morning). Led, not a lot of peace, properly challenged on straightening, started to weakened but hung on well to retain second.

Quick Skips Lad. Third start in a fortnight for this one. Sat on the rail behind the leaders, switched into the clear over a furlong out, kept working but just unable to claim second.

Kodiac Express, Apr 12. Sold twice as a yearling, €64k and then 50k gns eight months later. Second foal, half-sister yet to race. The Racing Post claimed this was the best backed horse of the race yet it drifted from 4s to 7s. Sat fourth, outpaced on the bend, kept on without making any ground.

Afterthisone. Backed up after terrible run in the Brocklesby (Div I), and didn't help his cause by playing up behind the gates. Beaten long way out, already gelded, good luck trying to find something in this horse.

Heavenly Pulse, Mar 23. €34k yearling, dam won four of 16, 5-6f specialist, peaked at OR91, retired after 3yo season. Fractious coming onto the track and then behind the barrier. Well supported, but had ran his race before the gates opened. Forgive.

KEY POINTS
I backed the winner on breeding and connections, plus the others didn't look crash hot. Decent win without being anything special, rated one point lower on RPR than Friday's race at Newcastle - not strong. Forget Heavenly Pulse went around and Dragon's Teeth will eventually find a race where he can dominate from the front.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Wimbledon preview - women

Unfortunately this year I don't have the time to write comprehensive Slam previews anymore so I'll sum this one up pretty quickly - it's all about Serena. 1 - Serena Williams. In incredible form. Since bombing out in R1 of the French Open last year, she has lost just three times - to Kerber (Cincinnati QF), to Stephens (Aus Open QF) and to Azarenka (Doha final). She has won three of the last four Wimbledon finals plus the Olympic gold last year where she dropped just 17 games in six rounds, against opponents which included four former world #1s. All that considered though, I can't have her at 1/2 (1.50) on Betfair. She just has to be opposed. I can't put a finger on who is going to beat her, but I have to side with her prospective opponents. If you want a smokey to put some small change on, try Maria Kirilenko. Her record in the Slam isn't so great but it has been improving - a best result of R4 last year beaten by finalist Radwanska 7-5 in the third, and