Skip to main content

Lingfield Tues Apr 11 2yo race review

Lingfield 2yo Tues Apr 11
Novice Median Auction Stakes
5f, Class 5, 58.87s
(slow by 1.77s)
Standard

Corinthia Knight, Jan 26, €15k yearling. Half-brother to ten-time winner Chiswick Bey who won a Brocklesby on debut and is still winning aged nine. Flew the gates, restrained to settle behind leader, edged closer down the side, then outpaced on turn as leader kicked. Showed nice turn of foot when asked to go at the furlong, won very nicely. Drifted from 5s out to 13/2, either outshone his work at home or stable not keen to back their own.

Black Orange, Apr 21. Backed up quickly after placing in one of the Brocklesbys at Doncaster and started 11/10. Started OK, urged along to hold the rail and take the lead. Kicked for home on the turn but winner far too good. Weakened sharply once passed inside the half-furlong. Think this one is fairly limited, just ready to go early and trainer will try to cash in while she can.

Crownthorpe, Mar 24, passed in as a yearling (14k reserve). Dam won twice as a 2yo, retired with peak rating of 72. Half-brother still a maiden after five starts. Settled at rear of pack but only 3-4L off the lead. Outpaced when leader went for home on the turn, took a while to balance up in the straight but worked home nicely without much urging. Straight track, perhaps over further... in top stable, expect him to be well placed shortly.

Our Man In Havana, Apr 6. £16k yearling (11k gns foal). Dam won once from 18 starts, off rating of 50 in heavy going. Started OK, restrained and tucked in behind. Alongside Crownthorpe on the turn, cornered better and got ahead of him under hard riding from Morris, but overtaken late and not pushed out to the line.

Brian Ryan, Apr 20. 15k gns foal, 3200gns yearling - not a good sign. First runner for £2500 sire. Third foal of dam, other pair both winners. In behind leader to the home turn then left behind when leader kicked. Didn't get any closer in the straight, even with the whip pulled.

Swiss Psalm, Apr 26. First foal of seven-time winning dam, 5-6f, Class4-6. Started OK, restrained to take a position and then just didn't want to go. Beaten long way out.

Tie Em Up Tel, Apr 12, £8k yearling. Dam placed once from six starts, peak rating of 69. Full brother Oakledge is five start maiden rated 77. Went hard early to challenge for lead then hung badly on turn, caught three wide and lost the plot completely for the final bend. Headcase.

KEY POINTS
Winner looked impressive, nice turn of foot, but don't rate the runner-up. Crownthorpe will win a decent race.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…