Skip to main content

Newbury Fri Apr 21 2yo race review

Newbury 1400 Fri Apr 21
EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes
5f34yds, Class 4, 1m3.38s
(slow by 3.98s)
Good to Firm

All previously unraced.

Gold Town. Mar 28. Didn't go to the sales. Dam a Listed winner and won four times at two, peaking at OR106 from 11 starts. Stable's first 2yo runner in 2017 won on Tuesday (Sound and Silence). Away well, restrained to sit handy to the pace. Came off Qaaraat's back at the furlong and put in a few nice strides to promptly take control. Nice turn of foot and held the others at bay, still had something left on the line.

Headway. Mar 14. 60k gns yearling (38k gns foal). Dam won three times 1m2f-1m3f. In astute stable, backed from 9/1 into 7/1. Broke well, wanted to overrace early when restrained to the back of the field. Edged forward to challenge at the furlong pole in a line of five and couldn't quite hold off the winner. Couldn't see the whip pulled at all, certainly one to watch.

Embour. Apr 28. £145k yearling (€98k foal). All dam's progeny to race in UK/Ireland (seven) have won and full sister Cake won Listed race at two, peak OR 102. Jumped well, straight onto the pace, marginally behind Tony Soprano. Challenged inside the furlong and fought hard, but unable to hold off the winner.

Qaaraat. Feb 20. 200k gns yearling, dam won a Listed and peaked at OR 100. First 2yo of the season for stable. Straight onto pace, marginally behind Tony Soprano. In line of five contesting lead at the furlong but run ended. Decent run, will learn from that.

Spoof. Jan 26. €50k yearling (20k gns foal). Dam Listed-placed in Italy. Drew the inside, quite green early, settled at the back, made progress from halfway. Shared lead at the furlong in a line of five, but weakened 1/2f later and showed more signs of greenness. This was a high-rated race, performance still strong enough to win most 2yo races so far this season (on RPR figures). In smart stable, expect more from him.

Jim Rockford. Mar 23. £47k yearling. Dam moderate but won six from 35 (including three of final four starts), mostly around one mile. Already rated higher than half-sister after this run. Very green, erratic stride pattern and throwing head all over the place. Ran home nicely towards the end, a run which screamed 'watch me next time when I have a clue what I am doing'.

Mysaan. Mar 17. £30k yearling (€32k foal), related to several winners. Sat just behind the pace with clear space ahead but unable make any ground when others were winding up and soon faded.

Motown Mick. 2k gns yearling. Third of the dam's progeny to race for Richard Hannon, half-brothers have both won a race. Rest of the family yet to break the duck. Slightly slow to begin, restrained and hooked back to settle behind the field in the centre of the pack. Under hard riding at the 2f, making very little progress.

Tony Soprano. Mar 6. €50k yearling. Dam unraced but three of her progeny (of four) have won. Broke well from the inside, straight to the front. Challenged inside 2f and found nothing. Weakened quickly

Owen The Law. Mar 11. Half-brother to six winners, two of them cracked the RPR100 mark. Widest drawn, a little slow to begin, under pressure at halfway, wanted to lay in. Found very little when urged along and dropped right out.

KEY POINTS
This was a hot race and the front three finished very close together. Even fourth-to-sixth looked quite handy. Top of my list to back next time would be Headway and Spoof, but in the right race, all of those first six could win next time out. Jim Rockford might need a couple of runs to gain a race brain but he should win some.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…