Skip to main content

Ripon Thurs Apr 20 2yo race review Div I

Ripon 1415 EBF Fillies Novice Stakes Div I
5f, Class 5, 1m0.05s
(slow by 2.05s)
Good to Firm (Good in Places)

Maggies Angel. Jan 26. €36k yearling. First foal of three-time 2yo winning dam who peaked at OR 98. Jumped well, tried to take a sit but ran greenly. Pulled out into middle of track in plenty of time to make her challenge. Once Hanagan asked her to go, she kicked away, Quite impressive, still plenty to learn.

Mount Victoria. Jan 21 foal, dam won at 25/1 on debut. Easy to track in running, lovely white blaze. Jumped straight to the front without much pressure. Had the others covered but winner pretty handy.

Under Offer. Mar 17, 52k gns yearling (€40k foal), dam G2 winner in Argentina, half-sister to seven winners. Broke well, settled mid-pack. Gap appeared at the 2f, kept on well, but without making much ground. Not fully extended, only one tap with the whip to keep her mind on the job.

Che Bella. Mar 23, £90k yearling. Started well, settled just behind the lead. Asked to go at the 2f, no acceleration so rider didn't thrash her. Stayed on OK but made no ground.

Autumn Belle. Mar 17, £2k yearling. Settled at the back, in close proximity to the winner. Outpaced at crucial stage and just plodded home without being stretched.

Society's Dream. Feb 28, €12k yearling. Slow to begin, sat well back on the rail, and never got any closer.

Runthatbymeagain. Apr 29, €5k yearling, half-sister to six winners. Under pressure at halfway and made no impression. Dropped out.

St Helens Gate. Jan 31, €3k yearling. Four of five half-siblings are multiple winners. Sat up no the pace but rider went for her around halfway and she soon went backwards in a hurry.

Beau Times, Apr 10. Began awkwardly, sat at the back but not far away. Under riding at halfway and made no impression.

KEY POINTS
Winner quite green but definite talent in there. Placegetters useful, not rushing to back anything behind them. Bear in mind the front two had an age advantage on most of them.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…