Skip to main content

Ripon Thurs Apr 20 2yo race review Div II

Ripon 1450 EBF Fillies Novice Stakes Div II
5f, Class 5, 59.90s
(slow by 1.90s)
Good to Firm

Capla Dancer. Apr 4, €6500 yearling out of mare who won once at Southwell. First crop sire who has now had two winners this week. Sat handy to the pace, moved up inside 2f to make her run. Battled hard to get past the leader in the final strides without being punished. Nice win. Started 66/1, Betfair SP was double, tote price less than half.

Faithful Promise. Feb 18, £48k yearling out of stakes-placed Coolmore mare who peaked at OR107. Backed up after debut run at Wolverhampton 12 days earlier. Straight to the lead from the gates, without much pressure. Challenged inside 2f, fought hard but overtaken in final strides. Solid run.

Flo's Melody. Feb 17, £28k yearling. Half-sister to three winners, dam had six tries at a C7 at Southwell and couldn't win off 40. Stable on fire with six 2yo winners (from 13 individual runners) already. Jumped right at the start, kicking off a chain reaction. Parked just behind the pace, couldn't go with them at the furlong when leaders went away, beat the rest clearly.

Listen Alexander. Jan 15, £55k yearling buyback by vendor. Trainer can't buy a winner at the moment (0-40 last 14 days) but has had several seconds with his 2yos. Sat handy, urged along at halfway, outpaced at crucial point and only plugged home.

Bow Belles. Apr 1, £19k yearling buyback by vendor. Half-sister has won one from 12 so far, peak of OR81. Forced right at the start due to wayward horses inside her. Settled at the back, never got into the race, battled home.

Showdancing, Feb 13, first foal, 42k gns yearling. Dam was a maiden from seven starts. Sat midfield, under hard riding at halfway. Checked for a few strides near the 2f pole but didn't show a great deal after that.

Kirbec, Feb 7. Feb 7, €6k yearling. Dwelt slightly, settled at the back, a bit green, didn't really know what to do. Wobbled around in the middle late, making no ground.

Nobrassnolass. Well supported on 10-day backup from Redcar. Spooked when Flo's Melody jumped right out of the gates, and went much further right without receiving any contact. Wanted to overrace after that, and ran a shocker. I'd forgive her, not sure those who backed her at 7/4 would.

KEY POINTS
When a 66/1 shot wins, it's unlikely to be a high-rating race. And based on RPRs, that is the case - in the bottom five of 2yo races so far this season.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…