Southwell Apr 6 2yo race review

I'd actually overlooked this race in the schedule and going by the figures returned, I didn't miss much. In the interests of being thorough...

Southwell 14.30 Thurs Apr 6
EBF Novice Stakes
5f, Class 5, 1:0.64s (slow by 3.14s)
Standard

Jasi, Apr 15. £50k yearling. Backed from 2/1 into 5/4. Jumped straight to the lead and rider always appeared confident. Urged along at the 2f, kept going but required several cracks with the whip to stick to the task. Not much left in the tank at the line.

Kheleyf's Girl, Feb 9. £1k yearling, From six-start maiden mare who topped out at OR52. Jumped well, sat on pace. Urged along before the 2f, whip pulled and used several times. Gave as much as she could, beaten a head. Little upside left.

Ventura Knight, Mar 22. £40k yearling (£36k foal). Slow to begin but sat on the pace until pressured at 2f, became erratic when whip pulled and dropped away to finish third. Even money favourite, pretty disappointing.

Glen Valley, Jan 26. £10k yearling, first foal of a one-time winning mare who peaked at OR67. Slow to begin, struggled to keep up, only horse to be affected by any kickback. Hated the surface?

KEY POINTS
Wouldn't get too excited about this race, reckon this lot are pretty ordinary. Equal lowest RPR figure of any 2yo race so far this season and none of them were given a soft run.

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog