Bath Monday May 1 2yo race review

Bath 1600 Mon May 1
Median Auction Stakes
5f10yds, Class 4, 1m1.73s (slow by 1.23s)
Firm

Rock of Estonia. Won on debut at Windsor three weeks previous. Jumped straight to the front. Challenged at 2f on both sides, showed big heart to fend off rivals on both sides and win pushed out hands & heels in the end, giving at least 11lbs to rest of field.

Joe's Spirit. Apr 1, £42k yearling (17k gns foal). Settled on the rail behind leader. Pushed through on the rail to lead by half-length at the furlong but run ended, only just held onto third.

Ghepardo. Apr 30, €20k yearling. Dam very slow but half-sister to handy 2yo Sir Reginald among others. Parked outside leader and appeared to be going better when challenging at 2f but couldn't go with front two. Kept working home late and still seemed to have something up sleeve on the line.

Cranworth Phoenix. Apr 6, half-sister to several winners. Reared at start, settled a few lengths behind. Never got near them.

Watch Tan - withdrawn at gates for refusing to go in.

KEY POINTS
Exceptionally tough effort from the winner conceding 11lbs. Second and third showed enough on debut to be confident of decent run next time out.

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track. There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------

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