Skip to main content

Brighton Tues May 2 2yo race review

Brighton 1400 Tues May 2
Novice Auction Stakes
5f59yds, Class 5, 1m2.58s
(slow by 1.98s)
Good (Good to Firm in Places)

Starlight Mystery. Third on debut at Leicester, missed start slightly here and had to settle behind leader (after being checked). Bit green/unbalanced coming down the hill. Got off the back of leader at 1.5f, went past these easily and kept going.

Super Florence. Apr 17, €9k yearling. Settled at tail, caught behind others when winner went for home and always struggling to make that ground up. By Zebedee, should be ready early, will be competitive once she learns to jump.

Floss The Hoss. Fourth on debut at Beverley when drawn wrong side. Away well, wanted to overrace early, sat outside leader coming down the hill. Under pressure at the 2f and just battled on from there.

Firenze Rosa. 100-1 on debut at Windsor. Led against the rail on a contested lead, went for home at bottom of the hill (2f) and got a small advantage but winner then loomed up and she weakened quickly.

Llamrei. Jan 30, £1k yearling. Sat three wide without cover. No acceleration when asked for it, got closer in final stages as others eased down.

KEY POINTS
Weak race, winner did it quite easily, runner-up will improve sharply if she gains barrier manners.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…