Skip to main content

Chelmsford May 2 2yo race review

Tidying up one that slipped through the net...

Chelmsford 1810 May 2
Filles Novice Auction Stakes
5f, Class 5, 1m1.51s (slow by 3.51s)
Standard

Blessed to Empress. Feb 1, 17k gns. First foal of dam, a sister to Listed winner Bounty Box. Jumped OK, worked to the lead, kept going. Whip not pulled but ridden fairly hard H&H.

Three Little Birds. Mar 22, 11k gns vendor buyback as yearling. Sat midfield, pulled out top of the straight and pushed right to the line to claim second in final stride. (8/1 into 5/1)

Princess Lyla. Apr 10, £3k 2yo sale. Half-sister to two winners but family is pretty limited. Settled directly behind the leader on the rail. Switched off her back at the furlong, never closer and then nabbed on the line, pushed back to third.

Dorcas. Feb 27, £8500 yearling, dam won at two. Sat outside the leader, couldn't match her, then under pressure approaching furlong and soon weakened.

Asheena. Sixth between Bengali Boys on debut Apr 19. Settled near the tail, pulled out to make run upon straightening and simply nothing there.

Sweet Vixen. 21 Apr, 13k gns vendor buyback as yearling. Slow out from gate one, settled last, always hard ridden, very ordinary.

Arabian Jazz. Mar 25, half-sister to Ancient King, Italian Derby placegetter now running over sticks in Australia. Backed from 6/1 into 7/2, started 9/2. Rodeo display at start, jockey unseated.

KEY POINTS:
Weak lot, winner should improve from that but not panels.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…