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Doomben 10,000 preview

The Aussie racing spotlight heads to Adelaide and Brisbane this week, and after a promising debut last week, Arif Mutluel, @AMutluel, is back in the ring for another swing....

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James Boag's Premium Doomben 10,000
Group 1, AU$700,000 1200M
Weight for Age
Doomben R7, 1604 local, 0704 BST


Just what Australian racing needed, another WFA 1200m Group 1 sprint. Although I’m not the biggest fan of the distance change, this year’s edition presents an intriguing contest. The speed in the race have drawn out wide, there’s three or four consistent but non-winning performers, there’s also mudlarks on a drying track and we also have one of the few remaining boom 3-year-old colts.

No real advantage for the 3-year-olds at WFA conditions this time of the year and with the track drying out should give every horse a chance. Luck and tactics will play the biggest role in this race and I’ll be searching for the horse most likely to get the best run in transit.

My thoughts below...

Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
Fell Swoop: Goes into this race fourth up after a nice freshen up of six weeks. He’s had a recent trial and if it’s anything to go by, fitness and condition will not be an issue. An exceptional performer, who has become a non-winner – his last win was over a year ago at the same track and distance. Solid 3rd in the TJ Smith, albeit having conditions to suit that day. Barrier 12 (after scratchings), he’s likely to find himself wide and working overtime to stay in reach of the leaders. Too good and consistent of a horse to write off but likely to find one better again.

Japonisme: Doesn’t appear to be in the same vein of form he showed as a 3-year-old. Not the quickest out of the gates, from barrier one there’s a strong probability he gets shuffled back and ends up settling worse than midfield. Recent trial was very good and the heavy tracks in Sydney don’t seem to have taken much out of him. He’ll appreciate the tight turning track and will bob up one day at odds, however can’t see that being this race.

Takedown: Talented horse who made the leap to this grade in Spring last year. Genuine Group 1 horse who loves a dog fight. His run in HK was huge but the travels might’ve taken a bit out of him now. Trialled impressively but his two runs since have been below par. Had excuses last start and trainer insists he is 100% for this. From the barrier he doesn’t get an economical run and likely to end up three wide which shouldn’t bother him too much as he’s a big horse who will appreciate the galloping room. I think he’s much better than a $17 chance but there’s question marks on how well he’s come up this prep. Value.

Rebel Dane: Had a good career and although he’s beaten a couple of his competitors in the Group 1 Manikato, I can’t see him measuring up in this race.

Music Magnate: Bjorn was quick to pull the pin after his two failures in the very heavy conditions. It could prove to be a winning move and the improving track will only add to his chances. He led last start but I expect him to be behind the leading group saving his energy after drawing the perfect gate. Ticks a lot of boxes and if the right gaps appear for him he will be in the finish.

Redzel: Flying this prep and his racing style eliminates the possibility of bad luck. I expect him to get to the front from barrier three and at some point down the straight he will look like the winner. There are some queries about his ability to run out a strong 1200 metre race but he showed last start he’s very capable at 1200 metres. Loves the soft conditions and meets his stablemate 2kgs better off from the Galaxy. Any downgrades to the track will suit him more than others, very good chance and a must for all multiples.

Counterattack: Chris Waller has tried everything to get this stallion a Group 1. He is a very good horse and this is one of his better chances of winning a Group 1. Hugh Bowman gave him a peach of a ride last start and he had every chance of running down Redzel but wasn’t good enough. He’ll need to find two lengths on that performance to measure up here as he’ll be giving the rest of the field a head start here. Tempo gives him every chance to improve, place chance for me.

Start Wondering: NZ Group 1 winner coming over for a first up crack at a group 1 in Australia. I generally prefer NZ form over longer distances and am willing to risk here first up. None the less I will monitor the market as I’ve been burnt a few times ignoring the NZ raiders.

Upstart Pride: Coming off a fifth place in a Toowoomba Listed race last start, he’s at the right price. He’ll play a critical role in the tempo of the race but not one you want to be behind rounding the home turn. Prefer him in easier races.

The Monstar: Loves the conditions but another that is out of his depth here.

Sooboog: Scratched (thank god)

Russian Revolution: What a classy beast, seven starts for five wins! He had no right to win the Galaxy after playing up in the yard and racing wide the whole trip (amongst other things) but he dug deep and stuck his neck out on the line. Started favourite next start in TJ Smith but over raced that day and was never comfortable in running. Cross-over nose band added to help him settle but this talk of taking a sit looking for cover can be a dangerous recipe. From barrier four, he could end up one-back on the fence if they elect to take a sit. If the leaders decide to slow down mid race on the tight turns he could find himself in an awkward position pulling his head off with nowhere to. Not many better than McEvoy in big races at the moment and he’ll ensure Russian Revolution finds his rhythm and takes the gaps when they appear. Clearly the one to beat.

Derryn: Coming off three very good runs in the heavy conditions in Sydney, his connections would be praying to the rain gods for the heavens to open up. I want to say he’s only a wet tracker and needs it to be a Soft 7 or worse to be a factor in this race but winning form is great form and his last three runs in Sydney were very good. If he hasn’t trained off he is a live chance.

El Divino: Scratched

In Her Time: I have a lot of time for this mare and with a better barrier she could’ve measured in the finish. The goal is the Tatts Tiara and stable have indicated they don’t want a gut buster first up so there’s a chance she’ll avoid the speed battle and try slot in. A classy mare who will have circumstances against her, one to follow throughout the winter carnival.

Verdict:
Russian Revolution has been heavily backed and I wish I was on him earlier as he’s hard to tip at his current price. I’m also concerned he won’t find the luck he needs if the stable elect to take a sit and ride for cover. I’m quite happy with the $21 I got early with Music Magnate. He seems to have thrived missing the Sydney carnival and gives himself every chance to defend his title. Derryn is in career best form and he’s in the right stable to hold his form. Takedown is a huge price and will take on trust. If he’s fit and well, he can definitely measure up in this.

5. Music Magnate
12. Russian Revolution
13, Derryn
3. Takedown

Quaddie: 1, 3, 5, 6, 12 & 13

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