Musselburgh May 5 2yo race review

Musselburgh 1430 Fri May 5
EBF Maiden Stakes
5f, Class 2, 58.8s (slow by 0.80s)
Good to Firm

Faithful Promise. Third start of career, second last time (to 66/1 shot) at Ripon Apr 20. Jumped well, straight onto the lead, one-off the rail. Kicked clear approaching 2f and comfortably held them off.

Shobrom. Sixth on debut at Newmarket on Apr 18 in a high-rating race. Shifted right at start, settled just behind the pace and urged along near halfway. Tried hard but never got any closer to the leader. Backed from 10/11 into 4/6 , couldn't see why there'd be any clear advantage over his form than the winner.

Shanghai Elastic. Feb 8, 5k gns yearling. First foal of dam who ran second on debut and that was as good as it got from six starts. Contested lead early but got left behind at 2f, suffering minor interference at the winner crossed to the fence. Battled on OK but not up to first two, at least without the advantage of experience.

Hypnotic Dancer. Third start, managed to get slightly closer to the winner this time - previous best nine lengths. Jumped OK, settled at rear, no acceleration, just plugged on late.

Holmfirst. Feb 21, €2k yearling. Dam, a 14 start maiden peaked at OR59. Slowly away, settled at the back, got left behind at 2f, weakened badly over final stages.

KEY POINTS
Winner returned a figure which puts her in the middle of most 2yo victors this season, she's decent but that's about it. The debutant Shanghai Elastic made a decent debut, will learn from that.

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track. There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------

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