Skip to main content

Robert Sangster Stakes preview, Morphettville

In a rare attempt at moving racing forward in the state, South Australia has its first million dollar race and it has delivered a high quality field in return. A premier race already, there is now some serious cash behind it.

Taking on the difficult task of a full field with his blog debut, it's a warm welcome to Arif Mutluel, @AMutluel.


UBet Classic registered as the Robert Sangster Stakes
Group 1, Fillies and Mares, 1200M
Morphettville 1604 local, 0734 BST

Cracker edition of the Robert Sangster Stakes for Adelaide’s first $1,000,000.00 race.

Trust me when I tell you I’ve learnt the hard way this is not a race you want to preview - full field of 20 plus two emergencies.

Field size should ensure there is a strong tempo but it won’t necessarily suit backmarkers. Could be a similar scenario to the Oakleigh Plate where horses on speed were advantaged and not many made up ground from the back. I’m tipping the winner will settle better than midfield and those out back will be wanting to ride for luck and hope the gaps open at the top of the straight. Anything trying to loop the field with the expected tempo will bring themselves undone.

As the market suggests, it is a very open race and the winner is likely to come from the Eastern raiders. My take below.

Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
English: After solid performances in the Sydney carnival English has opened up a $4.40 favourite but has been on the drift since. If punters remember her only other runs outside of Sydney she could end up $6+ by race time tomorrow. She is undoubtedly a classy mare and gets in quite well at the weights considering she was 10 metres away from a second Group 1. Although aided by the race conditions that day, she only needs to repeat her performance to go close in this. One for the multiples but I’m willing to leave her out of my numbers after four tough runs in the Sydney wet and her below par performances outside of Sydney.

Sheidel: Super consistent mare racing at the top of her game. Hard to pick against her and I expect her to be outright favourite by they jump. From barrier 10 she’ll ping the gates and should have little trouble crossing over and sitting in the first two or three. Magic Man jumps back on board and looks to keep the partnerships perfect record intact. Two wins from two rides, one being the Oakleigh Plate. She’s met most of the opposition and handled them quite comfortably previously and meets them better off at the weights tomorrow. 44 days between runs but she did win the Oakleigh first-up and she’s in the right stable. Definitely one of the leading contenders.

Secret Agenda: Coming off a very strong win in softer conditions, she will be oozing with confidence. Last start she was able to push forward and race handy however from barrier 17 (16 after emergencies come out) she may find herself further back than hoped and will have her work cut out for her. Also, she does tend to mix her form. Place chance for mine.

Super Cash: Andrew Noblet was quick to tip Super Cash out after the Newmarket with this race in mind. She has been set for this race and if her recent trial is anything to go she will be ready to peak. Mallyon on board is a plus for mine as she’ll be positive and have the horse in striking distance rounding the turn. Forget her last start in the Newmarket when she was caught in the wrong part of the track that day. Her win in the Rubiton was very impressive and she was holding a margin to I Am A Star as they crossed the line. The best comparison between her and Sheidel was four starts back where she was (again) on the wrong side of the Flemington straight. That particular day the first three across the line were all down the grandstand side with Super Cash being the only horse from the inside rail to factor in the first 10 or so across the line. As long as she’s in striking distance rounding the bend I expect her to be fighting out the finish. Top pick.

Viddora: Best hope of the locals and her trainer stated on radio to ignore her record at the distance as he believes he has worked out the trick to her. Strong win last start when the heavens opened up rounding the bend. From barrier three, I expect her to get shuffled back as she lacks tactical speed. With many horses starting their runs early to get into the race she’ll need a lot gun steer and gaps to open at the right time. She’s a query in this class and at the distance, happy to look elsewhere.

Egyptian Symbol: All the rage heading into the Gold Coast Magic Millions race where she ran a credible 6th beaten 1.9 lengths behind Private Secretary. That form line and a win in front of Artistry ties her into this race nicely and she’ll be in this race upto her ears. Very honest and consistent mare with 12 top three finishes out of 15 races, so you know she tries every time. Two trials leading into this race so fitness won’t be an issue and her first up record reads three wins from three. A must for multiples and one of the key chances.

Cavaloce: Decent record at the track and distance however won’t have the class at this level.

Now or Later: Former European galloper who has contest mile Group 1 races in her last three starts. Hard to get a guide against the locals and her trial wasn’t much to go by. Will need to watch market as Smerdon is on fire at the moment but I can’t have her first up based on her recent form and trial.

Scarlet Billows: Hard to get a real sense of where this mare is at, from memory she was to be retired after the Brisbane carnival last year and sent to the breeding barn. She was in better form last year for this race and started a $7 chance before failing to feature in the finish. She was just OK in her first up run. I prefer others but Darren Weir is a genius and best guide will come from betting.

I Am Zelady: From barrier 7, I expect her to be in the first 6 in running and run a bold race but can’t see her factoring in the finish.

Ravi: Opened surprisingly short at $7 when the markets first came up but getting out to her right price now. From the barrier she’ll end up in the second half of the field and will be giving the leaders a head start. Will need a strong tempo to see the best of her but If they’re storming down the outside towards the end of the day she’s the back-marker with the best chance. One for the multiples.

Miss Gunpowder: A super juvenile, she matched it with some of the best as a three year old. Her form did taper off a little, and although she wasn’t terrible, she never looked a winning chance her last three starts under Phillip Stokes. She’s had six months off, changed stables and was convincing first up when starting her run early. One at odds that wouldn’t surprise.

A Lotta Love: Get back run on type who needs races run to suit to factor in the result. Tomorrow she should get a healthy tempo and from barrier nine and with a bit of luck she can find herself midfield and within striking distance. She has a third behind Sheidel and Silent Sedition and her second up form is solid (4-3-0). I have her as my best value bet of the race and think she is one of the better $51 chances.

Beautiful Flyer: Prefer in something easier.

Lake Como: She was super first up but may prefer the Flemington straight. Think she’ll run a credible race but not in my numbers.

Every Faith: Trialled nicely but has not won below 1300 metres. Can’t see her measuring in the finish.

I Am A Star: Super filly racing in superb form. I must say, I do feel she is one of the better placed horses and she tends to draw a good gate more often than not. (last 10 barriers 2, 9, 2, 1, 10, 1, 16, 4, 8 & 1). Forget her last run in the Doncaster, she didn’t handle the conditions at all. Track drying out will be a bonus for her. Not sure how she’ll handle the high pressure as her best efforts have been over further with slower tempos but she’ll push forward early and hold her spot and she’s demonstrated her versatility before. One of the top chances.

Missrock: Locked in as a sprinter now, her form this prep has been very good. Ignore her galaxy run as she didn’t handle the heavy conditions like a lot of horses that day. Solid second behind Secret Agenda ties her in well. Gun draw and jockey on board plus the soft conditions won’t bother her, one to consider for your first four bets.

Legless Veuve: Tough filly who boasts a win over Hey Doc this prep. Not a fan of her prep as they tried to stretch her over 1600 metres. I’ll be more keen to back her in the Spring when they focus on sprinting.

Hear The Chant: Stable are not afraid to take a throw at the stumps. Prefer others.

Sweet Sherry (emergency): She has a nice race in her but won’t be the Sangster if she gets a strart.

Selenia (2nd emergency): Two wins from 15 starts doesn’t scream confidence. Another that is always thereabouts in her races but will work around her if she gains a start.

I’m hoping Super Cash jumps cleanly, they are positive with her early. Ideally she’d end up three wide 2/3 back and is allowed to find her rhythm. She’s been primed for this race and will have no excuses from a decent gate for a race of this profile. Sheidel ticks all the boxes and picks herself. No surprise to see the money coming for Egyptian Symbol and I can see A Lotta Love storming down the centre of the track for some added excitement. Could quite easily pick eight chances here and will definitely go wide in the quaddie, below are my top four. Happy punting.

4. Super Cash
2. Sheidel
6. Egyptian Symbol
13. A Lotta Love

Quaddie: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11, 12, 13 & 17


Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...