Skip to main content

Yarmouth May 2 2yo race review

Yarmouth 1420 Tues May 2
Maiden Stakes
5f42yds, Class 4, 1m1.57s
(slow by 1.57s)
Good to Firm

To Wafij. Mar 14, 130k gns yearling. Brother to No Leaf Clover, 2yo winner, peak OR of 99. Away well, contested lead on moderate pace. Pushed along approaching 1f, couple of cracks with the whip and found enough to win. Looks to have decent scope for improvement.

Choice Encounter. Fourth at Nottingham on debut 10 days earlier behind Simmy's Copshop in high-rating race. Led, pushed out at 1f when challenged, couldn't go with winner but didn't give up.

Validator. Apr 11, home-bred. Dam won on debut, peak OR 98. Awkwardly away, soon caught up on slow pace. Switched right at 2f to find space, worked home nicely late without use of whip.

Indian Warrior. Feb 18, 45k gns yearling. Half-brother to six winners. Nicely away, camped right on the pace, but under pressure at 2f and soon outpaced. Battled on OK late.

Contribute. Eighth of nine on debut at Newmarket, but finidhed ahead of Frozen Angel who then won at Ascot. Settled at rear, urged along 2f out, no impression.

City Guest. Mar 27, 38k gns yearling (65k foal). Dam was slow. Missed start, settled at tail, hard riding at halfway, never a chance.

KEY POINTERS
Winner looked OK (after-timing, I know he has since been beaten), but the third horse Validator looked the best prospect for the future, ran home nicely without a lot of effort.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…