Skip to main content

Belmont Stakes preview

Final leg of the Triple Crown and we will see three different winners in 2017. So no superstars from this crop but then again, Arrogate proved to be the best horse in the world from last year's US crop of three year olds, and he had barely started his career by this time in 2016.

With the preview, it's international racing aficionado, Luke Humphreys, @WorldRacingLuke.

-----------------------

Belmont Stakes
Group 1, US$1,500,000, 1m4f
Belmont Park 1837 local, 2337 BST, 0837 AEST
ODDS LISTED ARE BEST AVAILABLE AT TIME OF WRITING (FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

1 Twisted Tom (20/1): Winner of all three runs this season, most recently over 9f at Laurel Park in a feature conditions race, the Federico Tesio Stakes. Dodged Preakness for this but big class rise.

2 Tapwrit (8/1): G2 Tampa Bay Downs Derby winner by 4¼ Lengths in March. Subsequently beaten a long way by Irap in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes over 9f at Keeneland. Fighting sixth in G1 Kentucky Derby, will appreciate rise in distance I feel.

3 Gormley (14/1): Two times G1 winner at Santa Anita, including Derby. Off the bit all the way virtually in the Derby at Kentucky last time and weakened late. Place claims.

4 J Boys Echo (16/1): Biggest success to date was the G3 Gotham Stakes over subsequent Preakness winner Cloud Computing, at Aqueduct. Well beaten however at Churchill Downs but his race was over when he was one of the casualties of the early interference can be forgiven for that, place claims.

5 Hollywood Handsome (50/1): Beaten into fourth and fifth in Louisiana and Illinois Derbys. Winner of an Allowance event at Churchill Downs last time.

6 Lookin At Lee (5/1): Very consistent type finishing top four in all four G1s he has competed in. Great ride by Corey Lanerie to get him into second in the Kentucky Derby. Stayed on in Preakness last time from well back when coming wide, opposite to Churchill Downs where he was game enough. If he can handle running in all three legs of the Triple Crown, big chance.

7 Irish War Cry (7/2): Two times G2 winner of the Holy Bulls Stakes and the Wood Memorial. Bombed out of the G1 Kentucky Derby last time after causing interference at the start and being caught wide all the way. Have a feeling he won’t stay.

8 Senior Investment (7/1): Stayed on strongly late in the day in the G1 Preakness. On that run with a bit more luck here will be hard to beat.

9 Meantime (16/1): Second in G3 Peter Pan at this course over 3f shorter when leading all the way bar the last furlong. Maiden winner by 7½ Lengths at Keeneland before that. Yet to run over ten furlongs let alone 12.

10 Multiplier (20/1): Narrow G3 Illinois Derby winner two back. Sixth in G1 Preakness last time. Not up to it.

11 Epicharis (5/1): Japanese raider prepared by Kiyoshi Hagiwara raced by U Carrot Farm and to be ridden by French jockey now based in Japan, Christophe Lemaire. 30 Length winner of a LR in Japan last year. If Thunder Snow hadn’t done what he did at Churchill Downs at the start it would’ve been easier to compare the form against the Americans. Game 2nd in G2 UAE Derby when beaten by a better horse who is a G1 horse. Quarantine restrictions kept him running in the First Two Legs of the Triple Crown but this has been the target for a little while. Hard to beat.

12 Patch (40/1): G2 runner-up in the Louisiana Derby and then well down the track in the G1 Kentucky Derby after being wide. Drawn the outside here.

Ratings: (11) EPICHARIS - (8) SENIOR INVESTMENT - (6) LOOKIN AT LEE - (2) TAPWRIT - (4) J BOYS ECHO - (7) IRISH WAR CRY - (3) GORMLEY - (12) PATCH - (10) MULTIPLIER - (9) MEANTIME

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…