Skip to main content

Lowther Stakes preview

One great day of racing at York down (how impressive were Cracksman and Ulysses?!), three to go. The juvenile feature of the day is the Lowther Stakes for the fillies, and stepping in with a preview is David from Allweatheranalysis, @AWAnalysis.

-----------------------------

Sky Bet Lowther Stakes
Group 2 for 2yo Fillies, 6f, £250k
1425 local, 2325 AEST


No really strong trends but horses returning from a decent break have a good record here with those returning from 61-90 days absence having a profitable 26% strike rate.

Last time out winners have won 15 of the last 19 races but are unprofitable to follow as are horses having their fourth run yet they have a 21% strike rate.

Only one horse fits the absence criteria and that is Happy Like A Fool but the ground and step up in trip have to be a major concern with the two-year old progeny of Distorted Humour failing to win over 6 furlongs on good to soft ground in eight attempts.

Actress is my Today PF Top Rated but struggled last time out when stepped up to Group 1 company although will find this a little easier.

Natural is having only her fourth run but has already finished 2¼ lengths behind Madeline on good to soft ground.

Runners stepping up in trip for the first time have a 19% strike rate and are just about profitable so Special Purpose has to be considered having won his only two starts both over 5 furlongs the latest on good to soft ground.

Her sire’s two-year olds have a 15.2% strike rate over 6 furlongs.

W Haggas is also very profitable to follow here with his two-year old fillies at this time of year with a 62% strike rate.

Madeline won a Listed Race on good to soft ground in style last time out and tops my ratings so just edges my vote so my play will most likely be a forecast.

SELECTION : MADELINE
DANGER : SPECIAL PURPOSE

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...