Lowther Stakes preview

One great day of racing at York down (how impressive were Cracksman and Ulysses?!), three to go. The juvenile feature of the day is the Lowther Stakes for the fillies, and stepping in with a preview is David from Allweatheranalysis, @AWAnalysis.

-----------------------------

Sky Bet Lowther Stakes
Group 2 for 2yo Fillies, 6f, £250k
1425 local, 2325 AEST

No really strong trends but horses returning from a decent break have a good record here with those returning from 61-90 days absence having a profitable 26% strike rate.

Last time out winners have won 15 of the last 19 races but are unprofitable to follow as are horses having their fourth run yet they have a 21% strike rate.

Only one horse fits the absence criteria and that is Happy Like A Fool but the ground and step up in trip have to be a major concern with the two-year old progeny of Distorted Humour failing to win over 6 furlongs on good to soft ground in eight attempts.

Actress is my Today PF Top Rated but struggled last time out when stepped up to Group 1 company although will find this a little easier.

Natural is having only her fourth run but has already finished 2¼ lengths behind Madeline on good to soft ground.

Runners stepping up in trip for the first time have a 19% strike rate and are just about profitable so Special Purpose has to be considered having won his only two starts both over 5 furlongs the latest on good to soft ground.

Her sire’s two-year olds have a 15.2% strike rate over 6 furlongs.

W Haggas is also very profitable to follow here with his two-year old fillies at this time of year with a 62% strike rate.

Madeline won a Listed Race on good to soft ground in style last time out and tops my ratings so just edges my vote so my play will most likely be a forecast.

SELECTION : MADELINE
DANGER : SPECIAL PURPOSE

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog