Skip to main content

Strensall Stakes preview

Opening the card on the final day of the Ebor meeting is the Strensall Stakes. Taking the reins again is David from AllWeatheranalysis, @AWAnalysis.

----------------------------

Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes
Group 3, 1m1f, £85k
1355 local, 2255 AEST

A race that in which it generally pays to concentrate on the younger horses with three, four and five year olds accounting for 17 of the last 19 winners. Fancied runners also look the ones to concentrate on with 17 of the last 19 winners coming from the top three in the market 6 were favourite and 7 were second favourite. There is a split in the trends for the days since last run with 22% of winners returning from an eight to 15 day break and 27% returning from 61 to 90 days absence.

This looks like it could be a tactical race with no obvious early speed runners so those that like to come from off the speed could be slightly inconvenienced.

Mondialiste who won this in 2015 sets the standard and looks to be edging his way back to form following a similar routine of four or five prep races then a decent Autumn campaign. He is versatile regarding the ground and looks one that will be suited by a tactical race and may even be sent forward, proving difficult to beat.

Mustashry represents the bang in form combination of J Crowley and Sir M Stoute. The four-year old won lto out on only his second start of the season when beating some well weighted three-year olds but that was in a Chelmsford 0-105 Handicap and needs to improve.

Forest Ranger looks a lively outsider the three-year old colt is closely matched with Make Time on the last run at Goodwood over 8 furlongs. He looks more likely to be suited on pedigree by the step up in trip as his sire was a Group 1 winner over 8 and 10½ furlongs also over this trip in Group 3 Company as a three-year old.

SELECTION : MONDIALISTE
DANGER : FOREST RANGER

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...