The Group 1 entertainment continues in Australia with the Festival of Racing now officially entering autumn. A slight lull in tempo for Melbourne racing this week filling the gap between the cracking Blue Diamond and Australian Cup meetings, but the Australian Guineas is a genuine G1 of its own right. The honour roll lists such greats as Zabeel, Triscay, Mahogany, Flying Spur, Reset, Miss Finland, Mosheen, Shamus Award and last year's winner Hey Doc - and the first edition was only run in 1986.
After nailing the Futurity Stakes last week in his return to the blog after a long hiatus, Darryl Frenc, @winningpunter1, is in form. You can find more of his work at winningpunter.org.
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Australian Guineas
AU$1m, Group 1, 1600m
Flemington, Saturday 3/3/18
1630 local, 0530 GMT
Speed Map
Only a slightly above average speed in this. There aren’t
too many horses that will be keen to take up the running. That should allow
John Allen to take his time getting across from the wide draw on Cliff’s Edge.
There are a lot of people I have noticed lamenting Cliff’s Edges wide draw but
it is probably the best place he could’ve drawn. From there Allen will get
choice of taking up the lead or sitting outside leader or even getting to the
one out one back spot. Addictive Nature has been leading but I don’t think they
will here. Bred to stay but I don’t think he’ll get the mile so more likely
that they let Cliff’s Edge go past them. Black Sail ends up right up on the
speed from the inside draw. Grunt and Aloisia follow Cliff’s Edge but likely
get posted three wide. Tempo won’t be overly strong so I don’t think that
completely takes their chances of winning out of the race.
My Market
It’s a fairly open market and my assessed market represents
that as well, I have only two runners in single figures.
The Runners
Mighty Boss - I warned about backing him after the C.F Orr
and most punters fell into the trap. $101 winner of the Caulfield Guineas, I
can’t back him in this.
Cliff’s Edge - Deserves to be favourite. Perfect race shape
and perfect draw. Second best run of the day last time out behind Grunt who
beat him. He has a few swings on Grunt in this race. Weights don’t matter as
much as people will have you think but he does get a 3.5kg weight swing on
Grunt. Out to a mile in a slower race is the other swing that Cliff’s Edge gets
his way. It was very likely that Grunt was primed last start as they needed to
win to get his rating high enough to get in, where Cliff’s Edge had plenty of
improvement to come in him. He can get close to peaking here now that he is
finally out to the mile. We saw him last prep need to get right out in trip
before we saw his best. The fact that he just about matched his PB over 1400m
is a sign that he is flying and will be very hard to beat now getting out to a
trip.
Embellish - He lacks the turn of foot that others in the
race have. He was really strong through the line in the CS Hayes and after the
post was just about in front of the other runners. He just takes a long time to
get wound up. He might need further than the mile and I won’t be backing him
here but exotic players would be remiss to leave him out of their calculations.
Levendi - Blinkers go on but I don’t see him having the
speed to settle in the first five or six. Plain first up, only travelling a length
faster than Holy Snow to the 400 but over the last 400 was nearly four lengths
slower. His Carbine Club win was good to the eye but not really impressive on
the clock. Would need to improve a lot to win this.
Muraaqeb - Another horse that I would be having in the
exotics. Will be getting back and running on. Horse has no early speed
whatsoever so that’s a big issue. Likely to be outsprinted by Main Stage. Can’t
back it the win but could have it in the exotics.
Villermont - Was my Derby horse last pep before he had a
tough run and they skipped the Derby and went to the Sandown Guineas. First up
was plain but didn’t really get a crack at them. Finding horses with the right
platform is where I gain an edge. Villermont has no platform at all to win
this. Sat out the back and wasn’t asked for an effort. It’s almost as if he
goes into the Guineas first up. I’ll be losing on him.
Main Stage - Strong winning chance. From gate five they can use
a bit of speed and have him sitting in the first half of the field. Has shown
previously he can sit on pace / just off the pace and still perform. He was
huge in the CS Hayes. Second best last 800m of the whole day, seventh best last 600
and ninth best last 400. He peaked in fitness late but had the best mid-race and
late speed exertions. Has the Flemington win over Cliff’s Edge over 1800m. He’s
a serious horse and at $14 I’ll definitely be backing him.
Addictive Nature - Fan of the horse. He did it tough last
start so forgive run there. I just don’t think he will run out a strong mile
and he’d have to hit a new PB at the mile to win.
Holy Snow - Blackbooked him after a strong trial leading
into his first-up run. Good win first up but it was a weak race. Rated very
poorly on the day and on top of that he was in the perfect position to make the
run he did. Chance for exotics but I can’t back him.
Salsamor - Has a good run over the mile behind Showtime in
the Stutt Stakes. Beaten by Kings’ Command who had the perfect lead up first up
this prep. He’s the blow out chance. Has been beaten multiple times by horses
in this field but always runs competitively. If it had a lot of luck it could
win.
Grunt - Can’t not back this horse. Only loss was to Aloisia.
Strong through the line in the CS Hayes when winning. Had the perfect run on
the back of Cliff’s Edge that day but doesn’t get the worse run here either.
Most people are forgetting that he was only a length of Cliff’s Edge in the run
so he still travelled at a strong speed. Had fast sections early compared to
horses on the day. There are reasons to say Cliff’s Edge can turn the tables but
Grunt is also still improving and will be right in the finish.
Black Sail - Get’s a race shape to suit but hasn’t run a
figure yet that suggests he could win this. Happy to bet around him. Could
finish fourth - tenth just due to race shape.
Peaceful State - Good win fresh and has the SP profile on
his side, starting favourite against these horses. Didn’t perform well enough
for me though. I’ll be betting around him.
Mr So And So - 1800m back to 1600m gives him a strong
fitness platform. Got a suitable run in the Autumn Stakes and couldn’t beat
Holy Snow. Hit the line ok last start but don’t think that’s the A grade form.
Happy to risk.
Aloisia - She has the pattern to suggest she can win this.
First up last prep was a plain effort she then put a length and two lengths on
Shoals and Alizee respectively. Then went to The Valley over 2000m and put
Cliff’s Edge to the sword. Trialled averagely heading into her first-up run.
Was never going to be there to win. She got snagged back out of the gates. Had
the fifth best last 800m of the day. Her peak rating has her in the top ten best
3yos in the country, top three if you only look at runs a mile and longer. At
her best, she’s the horse to beat. You have to at least save on her.
Bring Me The Roses - Back in the field and drawn gate 1. No
thank you.
Betting Suggestions
There isn’t much wiggle room in the market at the moment
with most corps still at 130%. I’ll be looking to have big wins on Aloisia and
Main Stage. Aloisia should get to at least $8-10 hopefully. Then I think by
tomorrow we should be able to at least get $5 for Cliff’s Edge and $7 about
Grunt.
Grunt - 0.8 Units
Cliff’s Edge - 1 Unit
Aloisia - 0.3 Units
Main Stage - 0.3 Units
(based on 100 unit punting bank)
(based on 100 unit punting bank)
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