Something different for the blog this week, new contributor Matt Baird starts a new article analysing how to spend a 100 unit punting bank over the course of a day. First target, Day 1 of The Championships.
You can follow Matt on @Mattyb1819.
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The Sydney Autumn carnival takes us to
Randwick on Saturday for Doncaster Day and what a cracking day we have ahead of
ourselves here. We find ourselves with a dry deck and the rail in the true, as
such I am expecting a significant advantage to runners on the speed here. In
recent years Randwick has had rain-affected conditions for The Championships so
it will be good to see what impact a fantastic forecast has off the track as
well. These two days are really building in their importance to the racing landscape
in this country and the prizemoney on offer continues to grow.
Like most grand final race days, you do get
a lot of exposed form coming into today with runners having had multiple runs
into their preparations. In some cases this level of exposed form can lead to
great confidence, while in others tying in form from all over the place can be
head scratching. I have outlined a plan below on how I will attack the card
from a 100 unit perspective. Obviously on exciting days like today there is a
temptation to open the shoulders on a few runners and play into every race.
However today I believe it to be more advantageous to stay out on a few races
here and save some bullets for high confidence plays.
Race 1
The Kindergarten Stakes is the traditional
curtain raiser to a terrific day to follow. Usually a race for the B grade 2
year olds, this years race offers an exception in Enbihaar. This Hayes, Hayes
and Dabernig runner comes into this after being scratched on Golden Slipper eve
and her last race start she split Oohood and Written by in the Blue Diamond. If
she has come through her minor setback in the lead in to the Slipper and Parish
finds himself better than midfield she will be hard to hold out.
Bet: Enbihaar 8w
Race 2
Villermont comes out of a high rating
Rosehill Guineas and back to the mile should suit him down to the ground here. Appeared
to be really travelling last start before letting down and not offering much.
The 2000m there appeared too far and back in grade and distance goes up at a
wild price of $7/$2.5. From barrier 4 if Mark Zahra can have him in the front
half of the field he can’t do anything but run well here. Fellow Victorian Holy
Snow is the danger here, he looked all over the winner last start before being
edged out by Unforgotten. I need to keep him safe here so will look to save on
him.
Bet: Villermont 2w/6p & Holy Snow 2w
Race 3
Early market support here for She’s So High
who meets very different conditions to her first-up victory. She finds herself
on the Sydney leg, round a bend and up in trip. She went like a rocket last
time but may have been flattered by a clear bias that day at Flemington. She is
the form horse of the field but on a tough day it is a race I am looking to
stay out of.
Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Race 4 presents the final of a fantastic
series for the country trained gallopers and with it its own set of unique
challenges. When it comes to tying in form its hard to get a race tougher than
this. Coming from a series of races I have decided to go off peak performances
to help me out here. That undoubtedly leaves me with Don’t Give A Damn. If he
can back up in six days of his Wildcard win then he will ping the gates and
lead throughout here. The market has it right here with his main danger being
Suncraze. Mel O’Gorman has got this boy converting placings into wins now so
don’t let me put you off him if you’re a fan.
Bet: Don’t Give A Damn 2w/5p
Race 5
Another race I’m not overly keen to get
involved in here. With the staying ranks in Australia getting receiving a lift
recently with more overseas imports it is still hard to get enthused by
watching this lot go around. A Group 2 though in name only for mine with Alward
turning up here favourite leaves me well and truly waiting for the first of our
Group 1s coming up next.
Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Most of these runners extend to 1400m for
the first time here. With the 2 year olds up in trip I find that they normally
walk early in these races leaving a distinct advantage to those who can settle
close to the slow speed. With that in mind I think Tchaikovsky can run a bold
race here having got a taste for victory last start. The Snowdens won this race
last year with Assimilate and I am confident they can do it again. Early market
support suggests I’m not the only one with him here. It would be wise to keep
Outrageous safe here though having had the run last start at 1400m and from a
SP profile perspective is an interesting runner. The Slipper combination of
Team Hawkes and Avdulla reunite to go for more juvenile glory here.
Bet: Tchaikovsky 2w/6p & Outrageous
1w/3p
Race 7
The long-time Derby favourite in Ace High
arrives today to find himself a dry track and a soft inside draw. Something
that hasn’t really been in his favour in his lead up runs to this. He covered
every blade of grass in the Rosehill Guineas and fitness for this runner
certainly won’t be an issue. It is often hard to be confident in these really
big fields but at $5/$2 he appears to be one of the best each way plays I have
seen for a long time in a big race. Most of the dangers have been found in the
market but I would be willing to give Mongolian Marshal a small look in here.
Backing up from the Tulloch last week should have him in good order for this
and is from a smart yard who knows how to win this race.
Bet: Ace High 3w/8p & Mongolian Marshal
1w/3p
Race 8
The autumn carnivals Everest, The T.J
Smith, is a race at the mercy of the reigning Everest champion Redzel. Presents
here of two super lead in runs and a scorching trial with the blinkers on.
Winner of six of his last seven and a beast at Randwick he will be tough to
toss here. Don’t get cute here trying to find one to knock him off, just load
up and collect. For him to be in the black here is value and the conditions of
this race couldn’t suit him any better here. Blinkers, leading, Randwick,
1200m, rail true… get in the cue.
Bet: Redzel 20w
Race 9
The premier mile event of the Autumn
carnival is here and what a field we have! As a New South Welshman, it feels a
bit off to tip a New Zealand bred and Victorian trained runner on top. But
Humidor comes here off a Flemington win that didn’t really show his true
potential. His best runs are when the tempo is genuine and he can really motor
late. The speed here should be good enough to take the juice out of a few of
his rivals and have him steam over the top of them here to give D.K Weir his
biggest win in Sydney to date. The only caveat here is the map can be a bit tricky,
he will be behind Happy Clapper in the run who has to be a massive danger here
after getting to within a length of Winx. If the track is playing leaderish the
Clapper could overcome his Doncaster previous placings.
Bet: Humidor 3w/10p
Race 10
The easiest race of the day to access for
mine. If Luvaluva is 100% over her setback last week she beats these with a bit
in hand. Any market support for her on the day should lead to her being hard to
hold out even with the 60kg. In a trying and testing day at Randwick she should
present as an easy get out to punters here, giving us some more ammunition for
Day 2.
Bet: Luvaluva 15w
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