Something different for the blog this week, new contributor Matt Baird starts a new article analysing how to spend a 100 unit punting bank over the course of a day. First target, Day 1 of The Championships.
You can follow Matt on @Mattyb1819.
The Sydney Autumn carnival takes us to Randwick on Saturday for Doncaster Day and what a cracking day we have ahead of ourselves here. We find ourselves with a dry deck and the rail in the true, as such I am expecting a significant advantage to runners on the speed here. In recent years Randwick has had rain-affected conditions for The Championships so it will be good to see what impact a fantastic forecast has off the track as well. These two days are really building in their importance to the racing landscape in this country and the prizemoney on offer continues to grow.
Like most grand final race days, you do get a lot of exposed form coming into today with runners having had multiple runs into their preparations. In some cases this level of exposed form can lead to great confidence, while in others tying in form from all over the place can be head scratching. I have outlined a plan below on how I will attack the card from a 100 unit perspective. Obviously on exciting days like today there is a temptation to open the shoulders on a few runners and play into every race. However today I believe it to be more advantageous to stay out on a few races here and save some bullets for high confidence plays.
The Kindergarten Stakes is the traditional curtain raiser to a terrific day to follow. Usually a race for the B grade 2 year olds, this years race offers an exception in Enbihaar. This Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig runner comes into this after being scratched on Golden Slipper eve and her last race start she split Oohood and Written by in the Blue Diamond. If she has come through her minor setback in the lead in to the Slipper and Parish finds himself better than midfield she will be hard to hold out.
Bet: Enbihaar 8w
Villermont comes out of a high rating Rosehill Guineas and back to the mile should suit him down to the ground here. Appeared to be really travelling last start before letting down and not offering much. The 2000m there appeared too far and back in grade and distance goes up at a wild price of $7/$2.5. From barrier 4 if Mark Zahra can have him in the front half of the field he can’t do anything but run well here. Fellow Victorian Holy Snow is the danger here, he looked all over the winner last start before being edged out by Unforgotten. I need to keep him safe here so will look to save on him.
Bet: Villermont 2w/6p & Holy Snow 2w
Early market support here for She’s So High who meets very different conditions to her first-up victory. She finds herself on the Sydney leg, round a bend and up in trip. She went like a rocket last time but may have been flattered by a clear bias that day at Flemington. She is the form horse of the field but on a tough day it is a race I am looking to stay out of.
Bet: No Bet
Race 4 presents the final of a fantastic series for the country trained gallopers and with it its own set of unique challenges. When it comes to tying in form its hard to get a race tougher than this. Coming from a series of races I have decided to go off peak performances to help me out here. That undoubtedly leaves me with Don’t Give A Damn. If he can back up in six days of his Wildcard win then he will ping the gates and lead throughout here. The market has it right here with his main danger being Suncraze. Mel O’Gorman has got this boy converting placings into wins now so don’t let me put you off him if you’re a fan.
Bet: Don’t Give A Damn 2w/5p
Another race I’m not overly keen to get involved in here. With the staying ranks in Australia getting receiving a lift recently with more overseas imports it is still hard to get enthused by watching this lot go around. A Group 2 though in name only for mine with Alward turning up here favourite leaves me well and truly waiting for the first of our Group 1s coming up next.
Bet: No Bet
Most of these runners extend to 1400m for the first time here. With the 2 year olds up in trip I find that they normally walk early in these races leaving a distinct advantage to those who can settle close to the slow speed. With that in mind I think Tchaikovsky can run a bold race here having got a taste for victory last start. The Snowdens won this race last year with Assimilate and I am confident they can do it again. Early market support suggests I’m not the only one with him here. It would be wise to keep Outrageous safe here though having had the run last start at 1400m and from a SP profile perspective is an interesting runner. The Slipper combination of Team Hawkes and Avdulla reunite to go for more juvenile glory here.
Bet: Tchaikovsky 2w/6p & Outrageous 1w/3p
The long-time Derby favourite in Ace High arrives today to find himself a dry track and a soft inside draw. Something that hasn’t really been in his favour in his lead up runs to this. He covered every blade of grass in the Rosehill Guineas and fitness for this runner certainly won’t be an issue. It is often hard to be confident in these really big fields but at $5/$2 he appears to be one of the best each way plays I have seen for a long time in a big race. Most of the dangers have been found in the market but I would be willing to give Mongolian Marshal a small look in here. Backing up from the Tulloch last week should have him in good order for this and is from a smart yard who knows how to win this race.
Bet: Ace High 3w/8p & Mongolian Marshal 1w/3p
The autumn carnivals Everest, The T.J Smith, is a race at the mercy of the reigning Everest champion Redzel. Presents here of two super lead in runs and a scorching trial with the blinkers on. Winner of six of his last seven and a beast at Randwick he will be tough to toss here. Don’t get cute here trying to find one to knock him off, just load up and collect. For him to be in the black here is value and the conditions of this race couldn’t suit him any better here. Blinkers, leading, Randwick, 1200m, rail true… get in the cue.
Bet: Redzel 20w
The premier mile event of the Autumn carnival is here and what a field we have! As a New South Welshman, it feels a bit off to tip a New Zealand bred and Victorian trained runner on top. But Humidor comes here off a Flemington win that didn’t really show his true potential. His best runs are when the tempo is genuine and he can really motor late. The speed here should be good enough to take the juice out of a few of his rivals and have him steam over the top of them here to give D.K Weir his biggest win in Sydney to date. The only caveat here is the map can be a bit tricky, he will be behind Happy Clapper in the run who has to be a massive danger here after getting to within a length of Winx. If the track is playing leaderish the Clapper could overcome his Doncaster previous placings.
Bet: Humidor 3w/10p
The easiest race of the day to access for mine. If Luvaluva is 100% over her setback last week she beats these with a bit in hand. Any market support for her on the day should lead to her being hard to hold out even with the 60kg. In a trying and testing day at Randwick she should present as an easy get out to punters here, giving us some more ammunition for Day 2.
Bet: Luvaluva 15w