The party might be over in Sydney but the quality racing hasn't finished. Featuring two Group 1s and a bunch of Group 3 races, it's a card worth analysing closely - who's on the way up, and who's going to the well one time too many?
Matthew Baird, @mattyb1819, returns with his advice on how to spend 100 units on Randwick this Saturday.
The Championships have ended but the autumn carnival still has one great day left in it. The racing returns to Randwick for the third week in succession and the rail comes out a further 3 metres this week to the 6 metre position. Sydney looks to have thrown another week of super weather and we should be racing on a Good track again this weekend. Commendations must go to track manager Navesh Ramdani and his staff for the way Randwick has played over the past fortnight. He hasn’t been given a fair crack at it over recent seasons with Sydney’s autumn carnival being heavily rain effected. I expect we are met with another great track where all horses have their chance. After having a losing day last week I’m looking to hit back hard here today and end the carnival in the black. Below is how I am going to attack the day's racing using 100 units.
A reminder that winter really is coming with the return of the TAB Highway Handicap to metropolitan Saturdays. It certainly isn’t a knock on the concept but I’ve really struggled as a punter to get excited about these races. Week after week I sift through the form trying to find a winner of these races and I’m left scratching my head as they go past the post. I wouldn’t be running at a profit with these races so they are just a clear stay out for me.
Bet: No Bet
A BM85 here as we continue to ease into the day. Test The World presents here off two good trials and brings super first up form with her 3:2-0-1. She loves the trip with three career wins at this journey and the Baker stable have elected to claim here with apprentice Jean Van Overmeire taking off 2kg. She should lead these without too much pressure and with the rail out 6m, racing on pace early in the day could be a real advantage. As always with this stable though, the last 15 minutes of betting will tell the tale, if she drifts we are in real trouble but if she firms Giddy Up! At the good odds I’m keeping Chalk safe. She did win a BM80 here over this track and trip second up last campaign so she could prove to be a real blowout here.
Bet: Test The World 2w/6p $6.50 the win seems about her mark & Chalk 1w 3p
The Snowden’s really have got Dothraki humming this preparation and he presents here going better than ever. He has been a hard horse to catch over the journey but is as honest as they come. Last start he was super at Rosehill where he finished second to Spright after carrying 6kg more than her. She has come out and run well again last week giving even more credence to the performance and for mine he gets in really well at the weights against this lot. Finishing seventh in that Rosehill race was Mark Newnham-trained Burning Passion. They just went too slow on her in the early stages for her to be competitive there. Back on her home track, she needs to bowl along early here from the wide draw to be a winning hope for mine.
Bet: Dothraki 15w just wait for the day for this bet he is sure to get out past $3
Off peak performances Astoria has the class to win this having run Levendi to a half-length in the Tulloch. Last start he failed in the Derby and I’m inclined to think he has had enough this prep so I’m taking him on here. A few of these runners come out of the Carbine Club a fortnight ago, where Muraaqeb was successful. Definitely could make the case that he had all the favours there and the two runs of the race were Holy Snow (wide all the way, huge mid-race move) and Sambro (Brenton Avdulla is still looking to get up the rail). At set weights here though Tangled gets in really well for Waller and Walker. He ran third in the ATC Derby behind Levendi and Ace High and prior to that ran second in the Rosehill Guineas to D’Argento. Dropping back in trip to the 2000m suits here, with all three 2000m runs ending with him in the money. Maps to get a perfect run from barrier five and should simply be a sit and steer job for Walker.
Bet: Tangled 10w/10p the place bet here at $2 should see us at least collect money back this race.
A race in two for mine with emerging trainers Ed O’Rourke and Archie Alexander looking to make their mark on the carnival. They both look to have exciting fillies in Frolic and So Far Sokool, which in any other year could have really made their mark in the three-year-old division. This current crop of fillies however are really something special with Alizee and Shoals both winning at open mares' G1 grade. Whilst the cats are away the mice will play here however and there is still some ‘crumbs’ of the carnival to grab with a bit of black type and $84,000 to the winner. So Far Sokool comes here in terrific form off a last-start domination of the boys in the Bendigo Guineas. She made an absolute mess of them there, with the jockey soft on her late and still a four-length margin recorded. She comes here today however to Frolic’s home deck and with that in mind I’m going to give this girl one more chance. Her best career runs to date have been on rain-affected tracks and although she won’t get that in her favour here I’ll still be with her. I would like to see her ridden a touch more positively out of the gates today from the good inside draw. She is too often allowed to just flop out the back and then come home hard. The step up to 1400m should suit her in keeping up with them early and with not a lot of speed engaged here if she can be in striking distance on the bend she can salute at big odds.
Bet: Frolic 2w 6p at time of writing, she is paying $19/$5 that to me is a fantastic gamble! I have her marked closer to a $9 chance on current form but at her best even shorter still. Worth a throw at the stumps.
The day's two-year-old feature, the Champagne Stakes, sees many of today’s runners come out of the Sires Produce a fortnight ago. El Dorado Dreaming was successful there in nosing out hotpot and the country’s best bridesmaid Oohood at $101. That day we had a little collect out of the Hawkes’ colt in Outrageous who was fantastic in running third. Through no fault of jockey Brenton Avdulla he just didn’t get a fair crack at them in the straight and could only be extended over the last 125 metres. He brings a great fitness base with him after having two runs at 1400m so the increase in distance of a furlong should be no issue. Taking on the super stables is emerging trainer Matt Cumani. Matt has seen significant growth is his Australian training base and gets a crack at having a big autumn carnival winner with Akkadian here. Looking at his form on paper it reads six starts for one career placing. This doesn’t exactly scream 'Back Me!' But if you go through his replays you can make a case he should have a much better record. I want to save on him here and if he gets his overdue luck he’ll be charging at them late.
Bet: Outrageous 4w/10p he should be favourite this boy and again even money the place looks appealing & Akkadian 1w/4p the market has predictably undervalued him at $17/4.6
Today’s feature is the G1 All Aged Stakes, run over 1400m and at weight-for-age conditions with an almost capacity field this year. There is interest from mine in an ex Japanese runner in Satono Rasen for the Sydney Cup winning combination of Waller/Shinn. Having his first run in Australia the market suggests he isn’t here to win but the engagement of Blake Shinn says to me that this horse can be a serious player when he acclimatises in future seasons. The favourite Trapeze Artist sizzled on by Redzel in the T.J Smith a fortnight ago and on his best figures would win this. However, he is an inconsistent horse with his best being world class and some real head-scratching runs in between. He has been a hard horse to catch over the journey and has yet to post back-to-back wins over his career. From a price perspective I can’t be with him at anywhere near $3. Dare I say it I want to take him on with proven headcase Tom Melbourne. There has to be a big race in this guy one of these days and today for mine presents as good as any. Coming back in trip to the 1400m off last start's Doncaster I think can really suit him. He raced well first up behind Comin’ Through and a repeat of that performance would see him in the finish again. The barrier draw has really helped him here, first up they took him back from the wide draw and last start in the Doncaster they went forward with him from a similar gate. Today he can land in a position where he can be close enough on cornering whilst still having petrol in the tank to finish it off. It’s a delicate balance with Tom but he comes here with more upside in him this prep than most of his rivals who are at the end of their campaigns.
Bet: Tom Melbourne 2w/8p If you don’t quadruple your place bet on Tom, are you even a punter?
A very tough race here over 2000m with the Waterhouse & Bott-trained Arbeitsam going forward and looking to dictate. He is in super condition for this coming off a career personal best in running third in the Doncaster. I have landed on one coming out of the Donny but from the Hayes & Dabernig camp in Cool Chap. This High Chaparral gelding gets plenty of ticks here with two lead-in 1600m runs setting him up for to peak over his preferred 10 furlong trip. A good track here, coupled with a good gate should see him up to these in a race where there are plenty of dangers. He is going as well as ever but does struggle to convert good runs to wins so I’d rather be with him more the place. One of the dangers for mine is the Godolphin-trained Interlocuter, he was really well backed there last start at Rosehill and just didn’t fire a shot in the straight. Tye Angland couldn’t do much from the barrier draw but he certainly wasn’t in the right part of the track there, the step up to 2000m should suit off a couple of dour early runs this time in.
Bet: Cool Chap 3w/7p I was thinking this guy was going to sneak under the radar of the bookies but at $8/2.8 he’s priced correctly. Interlocuter 2w saving units
I’m not breaking ground here by putting Osborne Bulls on top. He has been extremely good to punters over his career and I expect him to be popular again today. He is the one to beat with only bad luck getting the better of him in his career to date. I have marked him a $2.80 chance so the $2.40 currently available is a little short. Hopefully over the course of Saturday he winds out a little bit, if you can get over $3 on the day bet up! But for now we are left to try to extract a pay day out of him through the multiples. I have got the John Thompson-trained galloper in Special Missile as second top rater, I thought he went super behind Osborne Bulls last start and gets a change of jockey here as the stable have elected not to claim. In playing multiples I have to throw Savapinski in, I have a lot of time for this girl and although short of her best trip she will be winning a good race up in Qld over the coming months.
Bet: Osborne Bulls standout in an exacta with Special Missile for second 3w and Osborne Bulls standout in an exacta with Savapinski 1w.
As always, feel free to get in touch with me on Twitter with any feedback be it positive or negative! You’ll find me @mattyb1819 and may the Punting Gods be kind to you this weekend.