Skip to main content

Clipper Logistics Stakes - York 15/5/19

The day to call time on this blog seems to be approaching, but I'll breathe life into it for just a little bit longer to keep my eye in...

York is one of the great racecourses of the world. A lovely spacious track, without the pomposity of Ascot or the drunken busloads of morons that turn up at Goodwood. This week forms a key lead-up to Epsom and Royal Ascot so it's important to do your form for the present and the future.


Duke of York Clipper Logistics Stakes
Group 2, 6f, £125,000
York 1500 BST

Limato - probably peaked two years ago when he won the July Cup and Prix de la Foret but still classy. Won three of his last four and wouldn’t have appreciated the soft conditions on Champions Day. Two starts here for a small field win and a second in the Nunthorpe. 3lb penalty irrelevant, big show.

Brando - rated the same as 12 months ago when beaten two lengths by Harry Angel. Hasn’t won in seven starts here, always thereabouts but can’t see him winning.

El Astronaute - 5f specialist stretching to six for the first time in his 41 start career, but has won over 5.5f. Not quite up to these, even if taking to the longer trip.

George Bowen - honest sprinter who has run three of his highest four RPRs this campaign, all on the AW. Will run a big race but feel the favourites will need to run below their best for him to win.

Hey Jonesy - won at his second start, and hasn't saluted the judge since. That win did come here, and has run placings at his two other course visits. First thought is he's not up to these but finished 3L behind US Navy Flag in the Middle Park (ahead of Sioux Nation and Sands of Mali), and within two lengths of Eqtidaar in the Commonwealth Cup (ahead of Invincible Army, Equilateral and Sioux Nation), so logic suggests he must have a decent show in a G2. Gelded and given a wind op over the winter, he tuned up for this at Chelmsford, his first start on AW, in a Class 2 Conditions race. He'd have won that race if he didn't round the bend like a drunken sailor and leave a massive gap for the winner to drive through. Perhaps the Kevin Ryan third string on jockey bookings but still a pretty big price for a horse with close-up G1 form.

Invincible Army - impressive winning on Flat opening day at Doncaster, reinforcing his strong record first- and second-up. Beat Eqtidaar and ran Sands of Mali to a nose last May, making him the obvious favourite. Tiny concern is that he was a non-runner at Newmarket on good-to-firm last season, similar to what is expected tomorrow, although York is not known for ever being 'rattling' quick.

Major Jumbo - another from the Kevin Ryan stable. Incredibly honest sprinter, only twice beaten more than three lengths in his past 20 starts - once on a bog track, the other in an apprentices race. Two lengths behind Invincible Army at Doncaster, followed by two lengths behind Mabs Cross at Newmarket. Just doesn't turn those honest runs into wins very often.

Ornate - three lengths behind Mabs Cross at Newmarket and lowest-rated in this field by 7lb. Not going to happen here.

Projection - tough sprinter with form overlapping with most of his rivals. Gets a weight advantage for defeats last season to Yafta and Limato. Hasn't run since October which is concerning as his better results have generally come further into his campaign. In the mix if Roger Charlton has him primed to go fresh.

Yafta - has only missed the quinella twice in a dozen starts and was a bit stiff not to win the G3 Abernant at Newmarket first-up. Has mostly campaigned in G3s and handicaps so far, leaving a query if he's up to this but on ratings, should be right in the finish. 


As it seems with every race at York, a tough race with several chances. Invincible Army has come up clear favourite but the classiest beast in the race is still Limato. He has the points on the board and looks a big price if he's retained his brutal speed. Looking for Hey Jonesy to run a big race at odds. 

2pt win Limato 13/2

1pt EW Hey Jonesy 16/1 


Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...