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ATC Sires Produce preview

The first day of The Championships at Randwick, not quite so glamorous with the prize purses due to COVID-19, but Group 1s are still the trophies you want on your shelf. The Sires Produce is the traditional merge in form between those coming off the Slipper, and others campaigned more patiently looking for the extra furlong. Either the favourite romps home or it's wide open...

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ATC Sires Produce
G1, AU$500k, 1400m
1515 local, 0515 BST

1. Mamaragan - third in the Golden Slipper at just his second race start. Strong form but drew the fence, got a cosy run and the inside was heavily favoured. Probably still the best horse in the race but watch the price. From gate 2 with Nash Rawiller on board, it has the potential to get crunched into a ridiculous price. No shorter than 3.5 for me.



2. Larimer Street - strong win at Moonee Valley (Listed, good, 1200m) last start after always looking to have plenty up his sleeve. Runner-up a fortnight earlier in the VRC Sires Produce (G2, 1400m) on a Soft 6, with the form for that race looking OK as Holyfield (9th) came out and won the G3 Baillieu at Randwick last weekend. Plenty of talent and the trainers will have a good gauge on his ability with the Blue Diamond winner in their stable. Right in this.

3. Prague - battled on well in the Slipper after being caught wide in the front half of the field. Change of jockey with Marquand being suspended, and appeared to be suited by the visiting jockey's hard-riding style. Gate 15 will make it tough. Has finished at least 2L behind Mamaragan on both that rival's starts. Can't see him turning the tables but in the mix for the placings.

4. King's Legacy - midfield in the Slipper, had fastest 800m-400m sectional in the race but simply travelled the shortest distance rather than made any great move. Stopped soon after. Snowden and Bowman are always handy to have up your sleeve but I couldn't have him.

5. Glenfiddich - forgive his flop in the Blue Diamond and his record is quite solid. Made a mess of the start in the Diamond and was never in it, but a fortnight ago won the Mornington Sires very easily. Distance not a concern but this is still a big jump in class.

6. Holyfield - only ninth in the VRC Sires Produce but then comfortably won the Baillieu Hcp last week, sitting on the pace and kicking clear on the turn. Distance not a concern but unless there was some hidden reason for his Flemington flop, he still has a bit to prove.

7. Aim - boom colt in December, went into the Magic Millions as favourite, and then hasn't lived up to the hype since. Beaten by Mamaragan in the Skyline, Prague in the Pago Pago, the step up in distance might help but can't have him at this price.

8. Ole Kirk - pronounced 'Olay' after the Danish inventor of Lego, Ole Kirk Christiansen. Impressive Flemington win on debut and then unlucky (just behind Larimer Street) in the VRC Sires. Won a trial here last week, this race has been a target. Ideally drawn in three, Tommy Berry climbs aboard. Has a powerful finish, watch how the track is playing. Definite chance.

9. Bartley - the second of the China Horse Club horses with Snowden (also Aim). Runner-up in the Black Opal, claimed in the final stride after sitting three wide without cover. Was heavily backed that day (6.50 into 4.40, before starting 5.0), and had hot sectionals at his previous starts. James Macdonald stays aboard, obviously has talent.



10. Return With Honour - no luck in the straight in the Black Opal when finishing on the heels of the placegetters. Dropped out to last in the Baillieu against the pattern, made a big move out wide on the turn but ran out of puff in the straight. Better drawn this time, much better than his last result.

11. Mission River - unbelievably well bred, by Redoute's Choice out of multiple G1 winner Yosei. Pulled up lame in the Skyline last start, previously ran a pair of seconds behind decent juveniles. Drawn 14 adding to the big price, there will be more in the tank but not sure it will be good enough.

12. Pioneer River - ran a solid third behind Larimer Street last start, having to do a lot more work against the shape of the race. Won his previous start at Flemington. Same ownership as Mission River, extra furlong should suit.

13. Cultural Amnesia - convincingly won his maiden at a midweek Randwick fixture on the inner track. May have also relished the firmer track after two second placings in heavy going. Hard to compare against rivals but lean to not being up to these.

14. Tempel One - beaten in two provincial maidens so far. No.

15. Dismissal - only filly in the field, still a maiden but ran third in the Sweet Embrace (behind Hungry Heart, ran a nice fifth in the Slipper) and beaten a length by Holyfield and Prime Star (Inglis Millennium winner) at Newcastle in January. Ignore last start when no luck from wide gate. Not the worst but place at best.

SUMMARY

I can see Mamaragan getting into a ridiculous price and I'd rather look elsewhere, ripping this race wide open. Ole Kirk looks to have been set for this race and has had a light campaign. At around 9.0, he's the bet for me. Larimer Street looks like there's more to come and should get a good cart into the race, worth an each-way ticket.

Ole Kirk
Larimer Street
Bartley
Mamaragan


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The Lexus Melbourne Cup
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AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
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