Skip to main content

Cheltenham 2021 Day 1 previews

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Disappointingly small field. This is the race which sets off the roar. This year there'll be no roar and quite a limited level of excitement.

Appreciate It is the dominant favourite and probably wins. He's beaten all the Irish brigade at least once, the only hole I can pick in him is I don't think he sprinted up the hill in the Bumper last year, when he was beaten by Ferny Hollow. Clutching at straws probably but I won't be getting involved much on this. The form behind Metier hasn't been great but when you're winning comfortably, that's their problem.

METIER, Appreciate It, Irascible.

Arkle Novices' Chase

A real shame to see Energumene come out of this on Friday, every racing fan was looking forward to a great battle with Shishkin, now it's very hard to see last year's Supreme winner getting beaten. Allmankind will set a cracking pace and Shishkin will just stalk him until the final couple of fences. Captain Guinness can be in the mix if he stands up.

SHISHKIN, Allmankind, Captain Guinness

Ultima Handicap Chase

The Irish have a terrible record in this race, no winner since Dun Doire back in 2006 with just a smattering of placings. Aye Right ran third in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby followed by second in the Ladbrokes Trophy which is the premier handicap chase form of the season. Gets a significant riding change from Callum Bewley to Richard Johnson, must give this a big shake. Alnadam has been impressive over fences so far apart from a flop at Kempton over Xmas where he 'was unsuited by the tight track', while Happygolucky has been in the frame at every start so far and has run well here on both occasions.

AYE RIGHT, Alnadam, Happygolucky

Champion Hurdle

The mares dominate the market here and rightly so. Honeysuckle has won the last two Irish Champion Hurdles and is undefeated in ten career starts. Epatante is the defending champ who disappointed on Boxing Day, falling to Silver Streak who'd she'd beaten easily the year before. The young challenger is Goshen who was waltzing away with the Triumph before a desperately unlucky stumble at the last. After a disappointing Flat campaign in the autumn, he sprang back to life last start in the Kingwell at Wincanton.  

HONEYSUCKLE, Goshen, Epatante

Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle

Concertista bolted up in the Mares' Novice here last year and Roksana ran fourth in this race behind Honeysuckle, but I don't think they dominate the race as much as the prices suggest. Dame de Compagnie won the Coral Cup from Black Tears, Indefatigable won the Martin Pipe, Great White Shark won the Guinness Hurdle at Galway and the Cesarewitch last season, plus plenty of other crosslinked form. Indefatigable has had a wind operation since her last run. She came from the clouds to win the final race of the Festival in 2020 and is fancied to go close again at a big price.

INDEFATIGABLE, Dame De Compagnie, Concertista

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

See full preview here.

BALKO SAINT, Her Indoors, Nassalam

National Challenge Cup Novices' Chase

Galvin has been laid out for this and despite the enforced stable change, is entitled to be favourite. Irish stables have a very strong record in this race but they don't get the advantage of the excellent Irish amateur jockeys this year. Is undefeated in four runs since running second in the Northern Trust Novices' Handicap Chase here last season. Remastered is 3-3 since going chasing and took a G2 last time out, while Next Destination is fast making up for a 30 month break, winning two G2 Novice Chases and a second to Roksana in another.

GALVIN, Remastered, Next Destination

No stonking certainties but Indefatigable each-way at 16/1 will probably be my biggest bet of the day.

Colossus Place 6 Ticket - come and join my syndicate

1,7 / 6 / 2,6,7,14 / 3,10 / 2,3,4,6,7 / 1,6,8,12,13,16,21


Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track.  There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------