Skip to main content

Weatherby's Super Sprint preview

A glorious format for a 2yo race where runners are handicapped based on their yearling sales price, with penalties for those who have won Pattern races so far. You won’t see any Coolmore or Godolphin blue-bloods here, nor any big-spending owner for that matter, this is a race for the battlers, and should be lauded for trying to put a big prize within reach for just a few grand. The top price paid for any of these was €57,000 for Raging.



WEATHERBY'S SUPER SPRINT
Newbury, Saturday
5f, 2yo, £200k, special weight conditions
1540 local, 0040 AEST

1.Raging

Finished 2.5L behind Sierra Bonnie in the Woodcote and is another 10lb worse off here. Never got into the race that day and perhaps his first run at Epsom can be forgiven but his only win was on a soft track in a field of three, needs a lot more here.

2. Zoltan Star

Hasn’t recovered from being beaten by a 150/1 shot on debut. Still a maiden after four starts and while he’s consistent at that level, and the Hannons have a solid record in this race (Sr won it seven times, three so far for Jr), he needs significant improvement to be in the finish.

3. Amazonian Dream

Unruly before the start at Royal Ascot when he finished a long way behind Chipotle at 80/1. No reason to expect a sharp reversal of form.

4. Chipotle

Obvious fav after winning the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. Unbeaten in three dry track runs, all over the straight 5f, including the first 2yo race of the English season, the Brocklesby in late March, where he beat Vintage Clarets by 4L. Regular rider Charles Bishop gets a few days off for being naughty so the in-form David Probert takes over.

5. Adnaan

Yet to be placed in three starts, finished just over 3L behind Bellarena Lady at Yarmouth and just ahead of Latin Lover but meets the latter 7lbs worse off under today’s conditions. Nope.

6. Gubbass

Won on debut early in the season but not been seen on track since. That has to be a concern but on jockey bookings, he looks the stable no.1 hope from the six Hannon runners. Plenty of speed in his bloodlines, solid chance if he has been aimed at this.

7. Delmona

Won handily on debut at Bath over a next-start winner (Symphony Perfect, runs here) then ran fifth in a Listed race at Newmarket when I thought she hit the front too early in a decent field (runner-up then ran second in G2 Duchess of Cambridge last weekend). The experience and dropping back to 5f should be in her favour here. Jockey Jane Elliott is flying at the moment, she has ridden six winners for Tom Dascombe in the past fortnight, from just 11 rides.

8. Latin Lover

Was beaten 4.75L on debut behind the once-raced Vintage Clarets, then followed up with a win at Beverley. After running fifth in a novice at Yarmouth under a penalty (behind Bellarena Lady who was 12/1 for this race before not declaring), he was put away for this. Jockey is just 2-85 for the year and one of those wins was on this colt. 

9. Vintage Clarets

Two horses dominate the betting here, this one and the aforementioned Chipotle, who beat him on debut in the Brocklesby back in late March. Since then this son of Ardad has won a pair of novices and ran third in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, a stronger race than Chipotle's Windsor Castle win but their relative runs produced the same RPRs, so there's little between them. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race three times in the past decade.

10. Prince Kendeux

Beaten 10L in a maiden at Bath on Tuesday. You've got to be in it to win it, but achieving the latter would require 20 rivals not completing the course...

11. Income

Began her career in June with a quickfire second and fourth within nine days in maiden company. Both those winners finished a long way behind in the Albany at Royal Ascot, albeit on heavy ground. Fair bit to find here.

12. Mytilda

Showed decent ability early doors, running three times in April, beaten no more than 3.5L in any of those, and splitting the handy Khunan and Flaming Rib at Ripon. Had two months off before returning at Chester, drew the outside fence and never had any hope. Even dismissing that run completely, she's still a long way behind and jockey Joey Haynes hasn't had a winner in his last 50 rides.

13. Showtimes Mahomes

Has shown only minimal improvement in his three starts according to RPRs but did look to have a bit in hand last time at Musselburgh. A formline of 221 is good on paper but has a fair bit to make up on the front two in the market. Trainer Grant Tuer is flying this season, hitting 28% with 24 winners out of 117 starters. 

14. Symphony Perfect

Has shown tiny improvement at each of her four starts based on RPRs, and led all the way last time to win at Bath. One of six from the Hannon stable, ambitious to think she's the one on exposed form so far.

15. Banner Moonshine

Hasn't troubled the judge in three starts to date and her jockey hasn't ridden a winner (0-20) this season. 

16. Desert

Beaten five lengths in both her starts to date, but in relatively strong maidens here and at Newmarket. Will win a race soon but not this one.

17. Rosa Mystica

Five runs to date, highest RPR of 67 when winning a seller at Goodwood when her owners bought her back. Won't be troubling these.

18. Russellinthebushes

New owners, new trainer for this race, and David Evans is flying at the moment, winning 36% in the past fortnight. Has been frustrating for punters so far, with four seconds from six starts, and none of those by more than half a length. Not sure if she's ungenuine or just not quite good enough. Switches from cheekpieces to a visor first time. Imagine she'll be competitive for a while and fade late, like the one time she has raced in better class and also on a straight track, in the Marygate at York.

19. El Maga

20/1 winner on debut on Redcar, when she fought back well when challenged, but has since regressed in better company, beaten a long way in the Albany and then 2L into fourth at Ripon under a penalty. Cannot enthuse.

20. Guilded

One of the 40 2yo fillies for Nick Bradley Racing this season. Ran a decent race behind Chipotle in the Windsor Castle, beaten 5.75 lengths (meets that rival 5lb better here). Previously ran second in the Hilary Needler at Beverley. On the opposite side of the draw to the favourites, if there's any bias to the other side, she has some hope.

21. Adaay In Asia

Three starts on the all-weather, including a victory last time at Lingfield, but hasn't cracked an RPR of 70 yet and thus will need binoculars to see the arse of the winner at the finish line.

22. Sienna Bonnie

Consistent filly who has been competitive in Listed races at level weights, and now drops to the featherweight of 8st1lb. Trainer won this race with Mrs Danvers off bottom weight in 2016. Hollie Doyle reclaims the ride, she was aboard when she won by over 8L at her second run. Gets her chance here.


SUMMARY

It's hard to go past the front two in the market, they are drawn together near the stand fence, should get a good trail behind likely leaders Russellinthebushes and Sienna Bonnie. Also on that side are Gubbass and Delmona. Pushed for a choice I'll side with Chipotle but wouldn't be rushing to take 2/1 or shorter. If there's a Without Favs market, I'd be tempted to have a little on Showtime Mahones, reckon he might improve for the rise in class. Hard to make a case for any of the roughies.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...