Skip to main content

York Dante meeting - Friday preview

A better day on Thursday, landing Point Lynas and the forecast with Big Evs and Sommerlier later in the programme. Not enough to retire on though, we go again!



1415 Marygate Fillies' Stakes

A tricky field of lightly-raced fillies with a decent spread of formlines to compare.

Baileys Jubilation - ran a decent fourth in what might be the strongest 2yo race of the season so far, with a couple of winners behind her. Her dam was beaten as 2/5 fav in this race back in 2012, after arriving unbeaten in two previous starts. Drawn high which hasn't been the place to be yet this week, although Clarendon House did win from 12 on Thursday, coming down the middle. Will be a big price, not out of it at all but the usually reliable Jason Hart has ridden one winner from his last 53 rides - he's cold as ice.

Betty Clover - a home-bred for Eve Johnson Houghton who specialises with budget juveniles. Won easily at Bath on debut then ran second to Running Queen at Salisbury. Seemed to have no excuses there but the winner was obviously classy.

Call Me Harswell - competitive at Beverley in her two starts with a third and a first. The win was Jason Hart's only win in his last 53 rides, not sure if that means this horse overcame that burden or the opposition was poor! 40/1, look on.

Glorious Kitty - sole debutant in the field. Locally owned and trained, this is a day out for them as on breeding, she's unlikely to trouble the judge.

Invincible Annice - a Nick Bradley Racing filly who started favourite when runner-up to Francisco's Piece (who ran second here in a 2yo Novice on Wednesday). That appears to be a weak race on the surface but she did seem to get the hang of it late in her debut.

It Ain't Two - won nicely on debut at Newmarket, ahead of a few of these. Wasn't fancied that day, starting 18/1 and ridden by Ross Coakley. Gets an upgrade to William Buick and probably starts favourite now. Word of warning - half-brother Balon D'Or won on debut and then has flat-lined ever since. 

Jayvee - showed good acceleration to beat Call Me Harswell on debut at Beverley, starting at 16/1. Has since been purchased by Medallion Racing, a US-based syndicate expanding into UK racing. Tudhope climbs aboard, not out of it.

Kaadi - improved to win at her second start, after a first start defeat to Enchanting Empress who went onto win again. A half-sister to Happy Together who has been racing against multiple G1 winner Romantic Warrior in Hong Kong of late. Gun trainer/jockey combo and they've had a few juvenile winners already this season. 

Lady Dorchester - the most experienced here with five runs (best result two thirds in small fields) but not showing any progression. Nope.

Magic Mild - ran a nice third, a length behind It Ain't Two, on debut. Finished ahead of two subsequent winners, expect a decent amount of natural improvement. Big chance.

Miss Lamal - another one from the Burke yard. Won easily at Thirsk on debut. Those behind her have slightly weaker formlines when they've faced the beaten horses from other rivals, but she did win by 3.25L. Based on jockey bookings, I'll assume she is stable second pick but that mightn't mean a lot in an even race of raw fillies.

Ruby's Profit - won easily on debut at Kempton, ahead of Lucid who had been beaten a little further by It Ain't Two and others from that race. She was the first ever 2yo winner for Dr Richard Newland and his new training partner, Jamie Insole, should have more to come and will be underestimated by the market compared to the more experienced Flat trainers.

Running Queen - the one to beat after her impressive win at Salisbury, taking a significant step forward. Her debut fourth at Newbury has turned out to be a strong race, with a high RPR for the winner, and the others that finished ahead or around her winning or running second at their next start. 

Seraphim Angel - fourth behind It Ain't Two on debut, then won the Lily Agnes last week at Chester, running home late to score. From the first crop of Sergei Prokofiev who has hit the ground running as a sire, with five winners from 11 runners so far in the UK & Ireland. In the mix.

Sybaris Jewel - ran third to Call Me Harswell at Beverley on debut. One would think that form is not up to this.

SUMMARY

A lot of unknowns here but based on exposed form, I'll have to go with Running Queen with Magic Mild and Kaadi to continue improving.

RUNNING QUEEN, Magic Mild, Kaadi

===========

1445 Knights Solicitors Handicap

Botanical - yet to finish out of the first three in five starts with two dominant wins at Hamilton, the last of which (in October) pushed him up 10lbs for his seasonal debut. That rise won't be enough to stop him, but is he ready to go after seven months off?

Epic Poet - a new addition to the David O'Meara stable, a former classy French galloper who disappointed for the Meade yard last season. In his French 3yo campaign, he finished to third to recent Prix Ganay winner Haya Zark, won a Listed race ahead of Athabascan who recently placed in the Sydney Cup, ran third to West Wind Blows (second in the Hardwicke Stakes and Caulfield Cup last year), and second in the Grand Prix de Marseille (Listed) to a half-sister to Pinatubo. He was awful last season for Freddie & Martyn Meade, was gelded mid-season, has dropped 8lbs in rating. New connections, new stable, new jockey, the sort of recruit O'Meara excels with. Worth a look each-way.

Stressfree - another O'Meara runner (three in the field) who gets the cheekpieces after failing at Ripon last start. The headgear has worked for him before in France. Note he'll carry below the weight Danny Tudhope can get down to, so we can't accurately gauge which one is stable preference. Either way, they won't lose much with Hollie Doyle in the saddle.

BOTANICAL, Epic Poet, Stressfree, Reach

=========

1515 SkyBet Fillies' Stakes

True Cyan finished fourth in the Nell Gwyn but all those ahead of her went to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket (down the field) or the French equivalent where Kathmandu just missed the grand prize on Sunday. Plenty still to come from her.

Devoted Queen - impressive winner on debut last season then ground out a tough win on resumption at Kempton last month. Well bred, likely to be much more to come.

Bolsena - hasn't done a lot so far, taking four starts to win her maiden, but is from a very strong family (half-sister to Triple Time, Cape Byron and seven other 100-rated winners). Ryan Moore sticks with her, that's a tip in itself.

TRUE CYAN, Devoted Queen, Bolsena

==========

1545 Yorkshire Cup

Gregory finished fifth in the St Leger last season, just behind today's favourite Tower of London. That was his fifth run of his debut season and was entitled to be tapering off by that stage. Freshened and more mature, he'll go very close here.

Giavellotto was able to pinch this race last year with a daring ride from HK-bound Andea Atzeni. This season he finished behind Tower of London in the big money Gulf states, giving the winner 6lbs each time (one and 3.75L margin). Now he faces that same horse 9lbs better under G2 terms.

Tower of London won the big staying races in Riyadh and Dubai over the winter, now he has to prove he is at the top of the staying ranks back in the UK, often with weight penalties in G2 races.

GREGORY, Giavellotto, Tower Of London.

===========

1615 Darley Novice Stakes

Small field and two no-hopers.

First Conquest has a 6lb penalty for nosing out Lead Artist at Newmarket in the Wood Ditton, Dark Tornado ran second to Ghostwriter at the tail-end of last season but resumes for a new trainer in James Horton, while Under Siege ran second debut behind Economics who was mighty impressive winning the Dante on Thursday.

Under Siege, Lead Artist, Dark Tornado

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...