Royal Ascot Day 1 preview

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 1

Warm day, dry ground, cracking fields in the big races and a lot of people in ridiculous top hats & morning suits melting. Bring it on!

QUEEN ANNE

1. Cairo - ran eighth in this race last year at 150/1 and hasn't miraculously improved in the meantime. No hope.

2. Carl Spackler - curious runner for the Yulong empire and leading Australian trainer Ciaron Maher, having just been purchased out of the Chad Brown camp in the US. He's won 8/12 starts, including G1 races such as the Fourstardave and the Maker's Mile Handicap. Loves to sit on speed and kick away. Champion American mare Tepin won this race back in 2016 when everyone wrote off the US turf form. His form measures up nicely against her and the history of this race. Barring Baaeed and Frankel's years, his best would be good enough to win this. If you were curious about the name - it's Bill Murray's character in Caddyshack.

3. Dancing Gemini - the David against Goliath prospect, running for the popular Roger Teal against the might of Coolmore, Juddmonte and the Sheikhs. Was unable to hold off Lead Artist in the Lockinge, but did finish ahead of Rosallion and Notable Speech (and Persica, who then beat Docklands in the G3 Diomed on Derby Day). Very honest, probably needs to step up again off a career-best RPR last time to win this.

4. Diego Velazquez - comes in a run short after being scratched at the gates in the Amethyst at Leopardstown a month ago. The stable can surely ensure his fitness but it's the bit between the ears that's the concern. Has won all four races in Ireland, but unplaced in four in Britain and France. Back him at your peril, not the race to take on when so much can go wrong.

5. Docklands - keeps running in Pattern races, isn't good enough to win any of them. Sits in a difficult place on the ratings scale, would carry the grandstand in handicaps, but a few lengths off top class. Tremendous record here - 6:2-3-1, has won two handicaps (including the Britannia), and ran second in this race last year but this edition is stronger. In the mix for place money again.

6. Lake Forest - runner-up in last year's Commonwealth Cup, he steps up to the mile for the first time in the best of company. Won the rich Golden Eagle in Sydney last year when perhaps lucky to keep the race after causing significant interference. Came back after a long break in a French G3, dropped to the back, ran on late on a slippery track (rain during the meeting on top of a firm surface, usually hard to accelerate), a decent enough run. That winner, Topgear, is quite popular for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee on Saturday. Don't think we've seen the best of him yet, could step up again.

7. Lead Artist - returned to form with a win in the Lockinge after a shocker first-up in the Bet365 Mile, the first time he'd ever missed the frame. Highly rated by Juddmonte, he offers their newly-retained rider Colin Keane a chance to open the Royal meeting with a winner. His Royal Ascot record is a poor two winners from 51 over the past ten years, but he's never had the pick of the rides (average Betfair SP of 60.71), it's a whole new ball game for him now.

8. Notable Speech - started his career on fire, winning three times at Kempton on the AW then winning the 2000 Guineas off a very irregular preparation for a Classic. But he's wobbled a bit since then, running poorly in the St James's Palace here, winning  what looks in hindsight to be an average Sussex Stakes (although the figures hold up), then fifth in the Prix Moulin, third at the Breeders' Cup and fourth in the Lockinge. This is harder than all of those. Fade anything trained by Charlie Appleby at your peril but I can't see him winning. 

9. Quddwah - lightly-raced 5yo who beat Docklands in the Queen Anne Trial last season,, won the G2 Summer Mile (also here), then finished fourth and fifth to last year's champion miler Charyn (on the heels on Inspiral in the G1 Jacques le Marois and of Dancing Gemini in the QEII Stakes). Resumed with a win at Longchamp last month with a change of tactics to lead for the first time. He still has upside, more than capable of being in the money.

10. Rosallion - looked to need the run in the Lockinge when third behind Lead Artist, never looked particularly settled and the couldn't sprint with the winner and runner-up when it mattered. Should come on for that, he's two from two at Ascot, and a three-time Group 1 winner. Rightful favourite but not unbeatable.

Summary:

There's a lot to say for the Lockinge form, particularly the pair who were first-up on the day, Rosallion and Notable Speech. But the form outside of the four who ran there isn't out of the game. Docklands loves Ascot, Quddwah is still improving, Lake Forest finished behind a smart sprinter first-up but it's the Aussie-owned ex-American Carl Spackler I am most intrigued with. Love his turn of foot and his US form stacks up. Each-way at 16 or 20/1 is worth a crack.

CARL Spackler, Rosallion, Lake Forest

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COVENTRY STAKES

I do love a good 2yo race which so much unknown. Bookies do too after two massive-priced winners in the past five years.

1. American Gulf - one run for one win, an easy Novice win at Windsor a fortnight ago. He was the first 2yo runner for the stable, one usually renowned for precocious talent, this season, so perhaps they were holding back until the better ones were ready. Nothing much behind him but the figure was good and Oisin Murphy is sticking with him. Worth a look.

2. Andab - bolted in on debut, then finished third behind the highly-rated Coolmore colt Albert Einstein and Power Blue in the Marble Hill. A full brother to Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner, Victoria Road, there seemed to be no excuses last time but he did take a step forward and if natural progression continues, he is in with a place chance at least. Drawn close to the stands rail, can only help. 

3. Ballistic Missile - won a decent novice race at York on debut a month ago. Was slowly away and a bit green last time, likely to improve notably off that. Rating was decent without being exceptional, sits about the right place in the market for me.

4. Bone Marra - up for grabs at the auction on Monday. Won at 25/1 on debut at Wolverhampton giving the syndicate their day in the sun, now they are hoping to cash in if someone is willing to pay silly money for a Royal Ascot runner. He's a mile off these on form so far.

5. Bourbon Blues - trained by the man who trained the 80/1 winner last year, Brian Meehan. Well beaten on debut at Newbury and then romped in at Brighton in a weak race. Can't see him getting close.

6. Coppull - won nicely on debut at Leicester back in April. While the figure didn't set the world on fire, 2yo ratings tend to increase throughout the season. It was a solid mark for back then and plenty of winners have come out of the race. If he's been growing away from the track, then he's not out of this. Wide gate probably helps.

7. Do Or Do Not - huge improvement between an 11L beating on debut and a neck second to Tadej last month. A big step forward but that can't happen twice and last time still was well short of the level required.

8. Gavoo - was spanked on debut by Andab, but did run second, albeit 4.75L behind at 33/1. He followed that up with a strong win at Listowel, matching the level of his conqueror at the Curragh. A similar step forward could win this - that's a big ask! Drawn the grandstand rail, usually an advantage.

9. Gstaad - a £450k foal, he's a half-brother to the star colt of 2023, Vandeek, who won the Prix Morny and the Middle Park (both G1s) in his unbeaten 2yo season, plus another half-brother who won his first three starts. A winner at his only start to date, he defeated the odds-on stablemate True Love, who'd run close to flying machine Lady Iman on debut. Connections have won this three times in the past decade, but all of them were sub 2/1. Unlikely to be that short here unless they truckload him. 

10. Kolkata Knight - won a Hamilton maiden very easily on debut, but I'm not convinced the form is anywhere near the level contested by his rivals. The runner-up has since won though. 

11. Military Code - the one with more exposed form, unbeaten in two, with strong form holding up behind him (2nd and 3rd last time have both won since, and from debut both have won or placed). Both victories required knuckling down so they didn't scream star of the future, but the latter was carrying a penalty and the form guide says he's unbeaten. Will be near the top of the betting. 

12. Postmodern - won effortlessly on debut at Yarmouth, coasting home by 5L but against a field that hasn't done much else, before or after. By boom sire Too Darn Hot, he's the early choice of Wathnan Racing's retained rider, James Doyle, but do they actually know one is better than the other? Each of their trio in this race is trained at a different venue, and they've all had just one race. Doyle did not ride this colt on debut, that privilege went to Jamie Spencer. Not sure there's enough evidence to make him favourite, or certainly clear one,  in a wide-open race.

13. Power Blue - impressive winner on debut, but none of those behind have turned out any good so far. Since then though, he has run placings against two very good types - Lady Iman (second was True Love who was beaten next time by Warsaw), and second to Albert Einstein in the G3 Marble Hill, who would have been clear favourite for this had he not suffered a setback. The Marble Hill is usually a very good form guide for Irish juveniles. A recent purchase for Amo Racing, but hasn't changed stable. In the mix. 

14. Raakeb - handy one from the Hannon stable. Won at Ripon on debut, ran third in the Beverley 2yo Trophy (behind Old Is Gold who ran third to Military Code and third in the Woodcote at Epsom on Derby, behind the very talented Maximized. Making small steps forward at each start, others open to sharper improvement.

15. Rock On Thunder - debut winner, took a while to get going before coming clear of rivals at Leicester. Third from that race won over the weekend. In a shrewd juvenile stable but will need to step forward significantly to contend here. 

16. Shaatir - has had a bit of a rushed preparation, this will be his third run in a month. Learned plenty from his debut third at Chepstow (winner won again on Sunday carrying a penalty) with a convincing win at Lingfield next time out. Improving but probably needs a big step to keep up with the market leaders.

17. Super Soldier - finished ahead of Tadej and behind Godolphin runner Wise Approach (entered for the Windsor Castle and the Norfolk later in the week) here in April. Then tried his luck in France in a Listed race, running second to a local horse breaking his maiden at the fourth attempt. That probably leaves him short of the required mark here.

18. Tadej - won a restricted novice race at York on his third start, grinding very hard to overcome Do Or Do Not. That's a long way short of this grade, and Hollie Doyle deserts him for Shaatir.

19. Tricky Tel - has won both of his career starts, at Chester for his locally-based stable. I doubt they were expecting a Coventry runner based on his breeding, sights have been raised after those performances. Aidan O'Brien has always said horses learn a lot running on the Roodee as it's constantly turning, but that was more in regard to Epsom and the Derby. Not sure how much it relates to the straight six at Ascot, other than he'll be relatively sharp. There have been two massive-priced winners (150/1, 80/1) of this race in recent years, don't let the odds put you off.

20. Underwriter - impressive winner of an Ayr maiden on debut, though interestingly James Doyle has gotten off him to ride Postmodern. Kiwi ace James McDonald takes over, nothing lost there. Archie Watson has won this race before with Bradsell, so he is well aware what it takes to win. Drawn right next to Postmodern in 18, big chance.

21. Warsaw - a leading contender of the Coolmore assault, having debuted with arrogance in winning a Navan maiden. He was third-string that day, starting 22/1 and being ridden by a 5lb claimer, but he obviously produced a lot more than he's shown at home,  clearing away to win by almost 3L. By Wootton Bassett, the lads would love a Royal Ascot winning juvenile from their boom sire. Who knows how good this one is? Wayne Lordan takes the ride with Moore optiong for Gstaad. Lordan, you may recall, won the Derby recently with a terrific front-running ride on Lambourn. 

Summary:

So many angles to look at here. I'm willing to ignore the top bracket in the betting. Any of those could win, but unless I spot any of them looking like Frankel in the parade ring, I'll be looking wider in the market. Power Blue has been running in strong company in Ireland, that education will hold him in good stead here at a solid EW price.

POWER BLUE, Underwriter, Coppull, American Gulf 

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KING CHARLES III STAKES

1. American Affair - much improved sprinter who has been cleaning up in the big handicaps. Loves running in big fields down the straight, winning at Musselburgh, Thirsk, Doncaster and York. Stepped into G2 territory last time at Haydock in the Temple, was blocked at a key stage and could only manage fifth behind Mgheera. 

2. Bucanero Fuerte - star 2yo who didn't go on with it last season at three, running in a series of G1s (Haydock Sprint Cup, Flying Five, Champions Sprint) late in the season, never finishing closer than sixth. Won comfortably on seasonal debut but that seems to be short of this level.

3. Jasour - finished behind Bucanero Fuerte in the Sprint Cup and Flying Five, then pulled too hard on seasonal debut, finishing only sixth. Winner of the July Stakes at Newmarket, needs a sharp change in fortune to be competitive here.

4. Kerdos - fifth, beaten just over three lengths in this race last year, and kept that form up for the rest of the season, two to four lengths behind the victor in the big sprints, never quite close enough to hit the frame. Disappointed first-up over 6f, back to five this time and gets the services of the brilliant Belgian, Christophe Soumillon. Rough chance if the inside rail (drawn 3) proves the place to be.

5. Manaccan - has a great record here with two wins and a close-up fifth (beaten 1L) from three starts. In his last nine races, he has won four times (including two Listed races and a Group 3) and never been beaten by two lengths. But that was mostly in 2022, he's not run since May 2023. Would be a considerable training performance to win this after that break.   

6. Night Raider - a recent purchase for Wathnan Racing, he's a jet on AW, winning four from four, but his turf form has yet to match it. He was beaten out of sight in the 2000 Guineas and Jersey Stakes last season, a reset to sprinting brought two synthetic wins later in the season, then returned this year with a 4L third behind last year's Commonwealth Cup winner Inisherin and Champions Sprint third Flora Of Bermuda. That's good enough to win this - and, if there's any turf track in the UK that correlates closely to All Weather, it's Ascot.

7. Regional - very honest sprinter who is consistently in the money in big races. Won the Sprint Cup at Haydock in 2023, ran second in the G2 Greenlands and this race last year, then ran fourth beaten under 2L behind Elite Status, Commonwealth Cup runner-up Lake Forest and future Champions Sprint winner Kind Of Blue, in the G3 Hackwood at Newbury. After several months off, he then went to Dubai and ran third in the G1 Al Quoz, behind Believing and in amongst a trio of Japanese sprinters. Needs an ounce of luck to crack the big win, would love to see Ed Bethell and Callum Rodriguez land a Group 1.

8. Rumstar - has a peculiar record that his five wins have all been on the extremes of the barrier stalls - either the inside or the outside. Not drawn that here, will get bumped around in the pack.

9. Starlust - 33/1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner last season who has a run or two left before he heads off to Australia for stallion duties. Outside chance.

10. Twilight Calls - has run second, fourth and sixth in past three editions of this race. Now a 7yo, not won since April 2022, needs the grandstand rail to be the magic lane to win here. No.

11. Washington Heights - another honest sprinter just out of the frame regularly. Ran third to Mgheera last time, one of the best runs of his career. Not a million to one on that. Jockey Tom Eaves in poor form though.

12. Asfoora - last year's winner who returns because trainer Henry Dwyer and entourage enjoyed it so much. Last year she finished up in Aus in March and then had a lead-up run at Haydock, this season she had two runs in April before catching the plane. Blinkers go on first time, Dwyer said he's always wanted to put them on her but she was running too well to do it! Oisin Murphy reacquaints himself with her, she must go close again.

13. Balmoral Lady - won the Achilles at Haydock last time but that's a bit short of this level. Very honest, apart from a six-week period last year when she ran poorly three times, she's not missed a place otherwise.

14. Believing - went so close is so many big sprint races last season, racking up two seconds, a third and two fourths in five G1 starts in England. Went to Dubai and earned a big cheque winning the G1 Al Quoz ahead of Regional. Won't have many starts left, she's already in foal to Frankel which has been known to boost the hormone and performance levels. Biggest thing against her this year is stall one.

Ignoring most of the no-hopers down the field, apart from

16. Mgheera - a recent acquisition out of France for Andrew Lloyd Webber, she won the G2 Temple at Haydock recently. That was no fluke, she'd won a G3 at Longchamp a fortnight earlier and ran third to multiple G1 winner Bradsell last season at Deauville. We may not have seen the best of her yet.

20. Aesterius - very handy 2yo who could only run fifth in the Norfolk but then won three Pattern races in the months after. Had an issue at York on his resumption this season, while the reason wasn't reported, he wouldn't be here unless he was ready to go again. Another chance at odds for James McDonald.

23. West Acre - tucked away down the bottom, this 3yo broke a track record at Meydan in January, winning a G2 and a G3, running second to Symbol Of Honour (likely Wokingham favourite) in a stakes race, and then started third fav in the G1 Al Quoz, finishing nearly 7L behind Believing. Has had two months off since then to freshen up and has drawn the outside rail. Interesting runner.

Summary:

A mad cavalry charge with a host of chances. I do like the 3yos, they are good enough to stretch the market leaders.

WEST ACRE, Aesterius, Asfoora, Night Raider

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ST JAMES'S PALACE

A great field with three Guineas winners, but precious little else in the septet.

1. Field Of Gold - left it too late at Newmarket, bolted in at The Curragh. The obvious one to beat.

3. Henri Matisse - last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner who claimed the French Guineas (Poule d'Essai des Poulains) by a head over Jonquil, one of Juddmonte's many 3yo stars. Might need a bit more to catch the favourite.

6. Ruling Court - part of the magic weekend for Godolphin when they claimed both Guineas at Newmarket and both the Classics at Churchill Downs. It was a solid win but not many think he'd have beaten Field Of Gold if Kieran Shoemark had gone earlier for him. Pulled out of the Derby because they were afraid of a few drops of rain, now drops back to the mile. Surely that's not ideal but who am I to question Charlie Appleby. 

FIELD OF GOLD, Ruling Court, Henri Matisse

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Not interested in the staying races and the Wolferton is a complete raffle. I'll stay out of those for the blog.

Best of luck punters!