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Royal Ascot Day 2 preview

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 2


QUEEN MARY

There's a lot of chaff in this race, I'd be here all night if I went through them all properly.

1. America - drawn the outside rail but struggled to win at Bath last time.

2. Caitlin G - squillions but will have to have a token bet on her after my daughter...

3. Cardiff By The Sea - ran well against one of the better Coolmore colts on debut, recording a decent RPR. Not out of it.

9. Harry's Girl - beaten in the final strides at York last time in the Marygate, by the 33/1 shot Secret Hideaway who held her cover into the stiff headwind until very late. The stable have a high opinion of this one but she's a bit of a worry in the barriers - could easily miss the start by three lengths. Rather handy, worth the risk at 15/1+.

11. Lennilu - US raider trained by the astute Patrick Biancone. Has won both starts comfortably so far, in rather different circumstances. She debuted at Keeneland on the dirt (slop, it was wet!), stalked the lead and ran on strongly, then on the turf at Gulfstream, she sat in the middle of a contested three-way lead, fought them off and kept on going. It gets tougher down the straight in a 25-horse field, but she looks like she has a bit of grit in her.

12. Love Olivia - impressive on debut then pulled hard to lead into a strong headwind at York and ran third behind Secret Hideaway. Should do better with cover. In same stable as the favourite, gets the no.1 Amo Racing jockey, I think she's a decent chance. Watch the betting.

14. Paris Carver - ran fourth on debut at The Curragh. Bought for $600k at a US breeze-up sale with a dirt pedigree, a curious one to send to Ireland on turf. Should come on a bit for the experience.

15. Revival Power - sister to G1 Nunthorpe winner Winter Power. Was very green at Thirsk winning her debut, and wasn't fancied either, 22/1 SP. That race has produced two winners from the three who have run again. Who knows how good she is?

16. Secret Hideaway - played her hand late to win the Marygate, avoiding the stiff headwind as long as she could. While that tactic gifted her the run of the race, there's obviously a bit of talent there. Might be a silly price.

18. Social Exclusion - won on debut then was totally lost at Chester, getting caught wide, hating the constant turning before the jockey eased up early in the straight. She was pretty good on debut, albeit at Southwell against two rivals. Will be a huge price - dismiss Chester and she's in with a squeak.

19. Society Kiss - impressive winner down this straight on debut for Ralph Beckett. Drawn the middle, should be ideal to choose which bit of speed to park behind.

20. Solana Rose - debuted in the Marygate and got bumped around, then stepped up to bolt up at Ripon a fortnight later. That win would have been her litmus test over whether to send her here. Drawn the inside, is that a negative or just something which will boost her price? 

21. Spicy Marg - posted an impressive figure on debut, winning at Newmarket in a small field. Was supposed to go to the Marygate after that but trainer Michael Bell opted to skip that for this race. Bred to be very speedy, another one drawn near the inside rail. 

22. Staya - won on debut at Yarmouth after being snapped up for £375k at the breeze-ups. Who knows how much more she has up her sleeve?

23. True Love - handy Coolmore filly who has bumped into two very handy juveniles at her two starts. First up, it was Lady Iman (who probably would have won this if entered) and last time she started odds-on before being run down by stablemate Gstaad, who won the Coventry impressively yesterday. If she can get her head in front...

24. Viamarie - won nicely on debut then scratched when drawn wide at Chester. A half-sister to handy sprinter First Folio (of whom I have a share!), she obviously has a bit of talent and is in very good hands. Being off for 70 days is a little concerning, but trust the stable. Well drawn, big price.

25. Zelaina - created a huge impression winning on debut at Nottingham (the same race Leovanni came out of last year), she’ll be one of the shortest-price favs of the week. She jumped straight to the front in that run, didn't see another runner. That's unlikely to happen again in a huge field but she also might have multiple strings to her bow.


Summary

Numerous chances here, it's not just about True Love & Zelaina. Over the past 11 years, it's mostly been about the favourites, but Karl Burke won with a Wathnan filly at 22/1 last year. American fillies have won four times in that period too. There's enough here to make me look wider than the top of the market, I'm not keen on 3/1 in a 25-runner field. 

LOVE OLIVIA, Revival Power, True Love, Harry's Girl, Social Exclusion


Not had time to do the other races, will be playing catch up all day. Back on Thursday with more coverage.

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