Royal Ascot Day 3 preview

ROYAL ASCOT THURSDAY

NORFOLK STAKES

Another big field juvenile sprint, don't be put off by the odds, the last four winners have been 14/1, 50/1, 150/1, 12/1 and no favourite has won since 2008. Aidan O'Brien had an odds-on shot, Whistlejacket, turned over in this last year.

1. Afjan  - impressive winner in a newcomers' race at Chantilly in a good time. Bred to be quick, drawn near the inside which hasn't been an advantage as yet.

3. Charles Darwin - one of the shortest-priced favourites of the week and the stable is cleaning up in the 2yo races. Has won his last two starts conclusively, looking very hard to beat.

4. Clear Force - trained by Karl Burke, beat the future Marygate winner to win easily at Ripon, then disappointed in the National Stakes at Sandown. Unless there was an excuse, he's going to need a big lift to match these.

7. First Legion - won nicely at York on debut but was then beaten at Sandown, regressing slightly in rating. Cost half a million at the breeze-ups, they'll be hoping for a sharp improvement!

8. Graft - French Listed winner at Chantilly last time out, but he beat Super Soldier who was beaten a long way in the Coventry. Nah.

9. Hey Tru Blue - Aussie-owned colt who finished second on debut, behind Rock On Thunder who ran ok in the Coventry, and ahead of a future winner in third. Named after a John Williamson song, bit of an Aussie anthem. The syndicate will enjoy themselves...

11. Lil Brother - I doubt he'll measure up but thought this one deserved a mention. He was very green on debut at Bath and flew home to claim second, then went to the front at Nottingham and fought hard to win a novice last time. Unfashionable connections but worth a nibble EW at Betfair SP because he will end up a ridiculous price.

12. London Boy - won impressively at Brighton on debut, beating a couple with experience. Looked a nice type, big step up here but not hopeless.

13. Naval Light - took a while to get going in the Beverley 2YO Trophy, behind a colt I quite like who runs in the Windsor Castle, Old Is Gold. Cost 360k at the breeze-ups, obviously has a bit of talent.

14. Sandal's Song - US raider who was purchased by Wathnan after a handy win on debut at Gulfstream. Who knows?

16. Wise Approach - won on debut here, disappointed as fav at York the next time. 

SUMMARY

Charles Darwin looks the obvious one but this race hasn't seen a favourite win for years. Due? Naval Light looks to have a future (although Old Is Gold didn't win) and Lil Brother at odds for third.

CHARLES DARWIN, Naval Light, Lil Brother.

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RIBBLESDALE

1. Caspi Star - ran second to Lady Vivian in a Southwell maiden 10 weeks ago, progressed with a dominant win at Musselburgh and then a third to Oaks winner Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks in a big career peak. How much more can she improve?

2. Catalina Delcarpio - just the two starts to date, a facile win in a Leopardstown maiden, followed by a second to Oaks fourth Wemightakedlongway in the G3 Salsabil. She did a few things wrong that day, expect improvement with a bit of experience. Trainer Paddy Twomey won his first Royal Ascot race yesterday, he said he had been waiting to bring the right horse(s). Like this one...

3. Ecstatic - finished 10L behind Catalina Delcarpio in the Salsabill (didn't like the wet?) but was then midfield behind Qilin Queen at Newbury, that horse finishing nearer the tail in the Oaks. Pass.

4. Garden Of Eden - with Moore aboard, she looks to be top of the Coolmore fillies here but it mightn't be a strong hand. She didn't even start fav last time in beating Island Hopping who was several lengths behind Catalina Delcarpio in the Salsabill, and the second horse started 200/1 in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Leaving this one alone.

5. Go Go Boots - assume she didn't handle Epsom in the Oaks, but was only a neck behind Serenity Prayer in the Musidora before that. Gosden stable are flying this week, must be a chance.

8. Lady Vivian - a recent purchase for Wathnan Racing, must have cost them plenty to get her from Valmont. Won a handicap during the Chester May Festival, should make the grade here.

9. Life Is Beautiful - bumped into a very good one last time in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket (Falakeyah). Another Gosden filly with ability, must be a chance.

10. Serenity Prayer - won her maiden at Newbury before going onto a second in the Musidora behind Oaks runner-up Whirl. Regally bred, owned by the Coolmore group but runs for Andrew Balding, looks more than handy. In the mix.

Summary:

Plenty of chances amongst the lightly-raced fillies but it's Catalina Delcarpio that intrigues me the most. 

CATALINA DELCARPIO, Go Go Boots, Serenity Prayer

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GOLD CUP

1. Coltrane - long past his best, still can't forgive him for not winning on the weekend Robbie Coltrane died (Champions Day 2022). Beaten by Yashin in the Sagaro and Trawlerman in the Henry II. Ran second in this race two years back when favourite, then was beaten over 10L last year. Not getting any younger. Pass.

2. Dubai Future - hasn't raced in the UK for nearly three years, but won the Dubai Gold Cup in April, beating amongst others, Trawlerman. Ran last in the Prix Vicomtesse a month ago at Longchamp, an eased-down 30L behind Candelari, on a damp track. Will prefer the firm going but no.

3. Sweet William - has struggled for wins since stepping into Group company, running second or third to Kyprios three times last season (incl. this race) but did manage to claim the Henry II and Doncaster Cups. Resuming this season, he ran a close-up third behind Rebel's Romance in the Yorkshire Cup. That should tune him up nicely for this, but has 5L to make up on Trawlerman on last year.

4. Trawlerman - a Godolphin horse who doesn't take that well to running around the Gulf states. He was beaten by Dubai Future in the Dubai Gold Cup this season, last season he ran third to Tower Of London in that same race, and back in 2023 he was beaten nearly 40L. Meanwhile in the UK, he has won six of his past nine, including a win over the now-retired Kyprios, and resumed this season with a win in the Henry II, his best RPR since...winning the Long Distance Cup over Kyprios back in 2023. The Gosdens are flying this week, I think he should be favourite.

5. Wonder Legend - yet another 'legend' owned by K K Ho. He's flying on AW but needs to bring that form back to the turf. Look for him in the Northumberland Plate instead.

6. Yashin - surprised everyone in winning the Sagaro, his first start for Michael Bell and since a wind op.  That was slowly run over two miles, now he's got to run 4f further with, I'd expect, a more genuine tempo. Not for me.

7.  Candelari - has had a remarkable rise, he only made his debut back in December, now he's third favourite for the Gold Cup. All runs in France, one converging formline, he beat Double Major by 1.25L (receiving 10lbs) before that horse went onto the Dubai Gold Cup and finished second to Dubai Future. Claimed a G1 last time out, but this is a step up again. Classy and exciting stayer but think this is a bit of a stretch n his first campaign.

8. Illinois - Coolmore's rising staying prospect who slots in to directly replace Kyprios. He was beaten last season by Ambiente Friendly, Sosie, Los Angeles and Jan Brueghel over a mile and a half or further. Late in the season he claimed a French G2 and then resumed last month to claim the Ormonde at Chester, ahead of Al Qareem and Absurde, who then ran the quinella at York last weekend. He's obviously good, but he's not Kyprios just yet. He might win, but I wouldn't have him favourite.

Summary:

Keen on Trawlerman, it's his time before Illinois probably takes over the staying mantle.

TRAWLERMAN, Illinois, Sweet William

Good luck in the handicaps, they're bloody hard and there's only so much time in the day...