Royal Ascot Friday & Saturday

No detailed preview for the next two days as I'll be on the road, but some quick notes...

Commonwealth Cup

I was doing some research on successful and unsuccessful sires at Royal Ascot yesterday and notably found that both Kodiac (sire of Babouche) and Lope De Vega (sire of Shadow of Light and Jonquil) have terrible records at the meeting. Now, there are always exceptions to the rule and all three of these are very, very good... but I wouldn't be lumping on heavily.

Coronation Stakes

Zarigana from France looks the one to beat, but she only beat Shes Perfect on protest, and if you go by that horse's UK form, she's not top level, so I have a question mark on the depth of the form. I like Falakeyah, she ticks a lot of boxs - Shadwell, Crowley, Burrows, by New Bay...

King Edward VII

Amiloc would have been competitive in the Derby had the prudes not ruled him out because he's lost his nuts. Zahrann looks useful but not sure on the depth of form.

SATURDAY

Hardwicke Stakes

Rebel's Romance is still underrated in this country due to most of his wins being abroad. Should win.

QEII Jubilee Stakes

Liking two here - Satono Reve has been running close to the best sprinter in the world, Kai Ying Rising, and that is better than all of these. Just has to handle the straight. I don't like Storm Boy, he was a star 2yo but since his form has gone off the boil, he has become unreliable. Let 'the lads' back him, I'd prefer to be a layer. Topgear looked the goods resuming at Longchamp a few weeks ago, could be a decent price.

Golden Gates Stakes

I've been following Ernst Blofeld for a while, think he goes close here at around 10s.

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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