Cox Plate preview

THE LADBROKES COX PLATE
The Valley, Melbourne
AU$6.05m, Group 1, WFA
1740 local time, 0740 BST

A very interesting race this year. Perhaps not the finest field in history, not the biggest, but it is the last to be run at The Valley (formerly known as Moonee Valley) under the current configuration. The whole place will be knocked down or ripped up in order to completely rebuild the place with a different track orientation and a more traditional length of home straight. It will all change...

A year ago, Via Sistina blew them away in one of the world's best performances on the year. This season, at least down in Melbourne, she's not quite so invincible. Races haven't been run to suit, she's drawn inside each time, she's been running OK without being the superstar that scared off any international rivals. Third behind Mr Brightside in the Makybe Diva then third behind Sir Delius in the Turnbull, after opening her campaign with a win in the Winx Stakes in Sydney. Perhaps she just doesn't bother for races worth less than a million bucks. Since she arrived in Australia, over 2000m she is eight starts, six wins, a second and a third. She's also seven wins from eight in races worth a million or more. She's definitely good enough and she almost certainly doesn't need to be as good as she was last year to win. According to Dan O'Sullivan's TRB ratings, she's on a similar prep to her last two campaigns, ready to step forward for the 'grand final', fourth-up. Pace is the concern. With Globe our of the race, who leads? Who puts the pressure on, to allow her to move into the race going past the school? 

The feeling is that Light Infantry Man goes forward or perhaps the 3yo Nepotism takes advantage of the weight advantage and goes for the So You Think or Shamus Award tactics out in front. It's the Cox Plate, you think something has to set a decent pace but it wasn't that long ago that Romantic Warrior was almost undone by a slow pace. It's the only thing putting doubts in the head about Via Sistina.

Second favourite is the Queenslander, Antino. He was impressive in the late autumn winning the Hollindale Cup and then the Doomben Cup with ease, and has run well without winning in three starts this campaign. He was on Via Sistina's heels in the Makybe Diva and then finished ahead of her in the Turnbull. He'll set off early, he loves making a long sustained run and he'll certainly inject some life in the race.

Attrition doesn't seem up to this level but with Willo aboard, could he be there to sneak into a place? Didn't stay the 2000m in the Australian Cup, but was fine last time over 1900m in Sydney.

Buckaroo seems to be overlooked by all and sundry. Third in the Memsie, second in the Underwood, third in the Might & Power - he's around the mark each time but having four different jockeys in a row suggests connections don't really think he's up to this. Was beaten 5L in the Queen Elizabeth in the autumn on a sound surface and behind Via Sistina.

Treasurethe Moment has had excuses this campaign, with a colic scare after winning the Memsie impressively first-up. In her past two, she's been beaten in pace-controlled races. If this one is genuinely run, she'll be ripe to peak.

Aeliana is the query horse. Looked a world beater during the autumn, thumping the boys in the ATC Derby after just being nosed out by Broadsiding in the Rosehill Guineas. The stable seemed a bit concerned about her, being behind in her coat, not being as bright and bubbly as they'd expect from her but her figures are like most of this field, solid without being brilliant this campaign. There's improvement left in her and trusting the stable that she's in prime condition for the WFA championship of the southern hemisphere. She'll be in the mix.

Nepotism gets a big weight advantage as the sole 3yo but the question is whether he's good enough. His performance ratings don't scream emerging star, he won the Champagne Stakes in the autumn but this time in hasn't run in the first six in the Run to the Rose, Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas. Granted he hasn't had a lot of luck in each of those, but in none of those did he look like he'd have won with a nicer roll of the dice.

It's going to be all about the odds here - at time of publishing (Via 2.48, Antino 4.3, TTM 8.2, Aeliana 8.6). I can make a case for all of them. As they stand now, I'll go for the Waller quinella, but with Aeliana on top.

Aeliana

Via Sistina