The Sportsbet Caulfield Cup 2025

Before the creation of the northern slot race, this day was always known as Caulfield Cup Day. Hopefully no Sweet Caroline here...

CAULFIELD CUP

2400m, Group 1 Handicap
Of AU$5million
1715 local, 0715 BST

1. Vauban - after two years of visiting and flopping n the Melbourne Cup, he was bought by locals and sent to the Waterhouse & Bott camp. Has shown good fresh form, winning the G3 Sky High in the autumn and finishing third in the G2 Chelmsford behind Lindemann and Sir Delius six weeks ago, but has tapered off later in each campaign. Didn't have much luck in the Metropolitan behind Royal Supremacy last time, meets that horse 2kg better off for 1.36L defeat. I think he could have bullocked his way out into space in that race, but Tim Clark probably wasn't too keen on risking a suspension that would put him out of Everest day Is classy enough to win but at the weights, we need to see his very best. Jockey upgrade to Blake Shinn, topweights often run well here but can he get around Caulfield? Can see him sitting midfield in the three-wide line winding up on the turn.

2. Presage Nocturne - the French raider who almost certainly needs further. Has not won on a good track before - the formguide lies in this case, the race at Deauville was actually on the synthetic. Look at him for Flemington.

3. Middle Earth - hasn't shown a great deal this prep but is one who is crying out for this trip. Decent run in the Turnbull when locked up on the rail and improving position without ever being able to unleash. His record over 2400m+ is four wins and two seconds from 10, all against decent young UK stayers. Looking for significant improvement here in his first Australian run at this distance but would prefer him to be drawn out wider.   

4. Meydaan - always thought of in high regard in the UK but hasn't consistently delivered. The Crisfords are firm in their belief that he is the equal of West Wind Blows, just not as consistent. On ratings he's a couple of points behind but you have to rate the stable intel. His big run was his last one, running third behind Arc entrants Giavelotto and Kalpana in a sit-sprint in the straight on the AW track, which I think flattered him significantly. 

5. Absurde - repeat visitor for Willie Mullins, running seventh and fifth at Flemington in the past two years. Is he here to win this one or just try something different for the Melbourne Cup? Has never run over 2400m before, he ran short of that trip when trained in France as a two and three-year-old, then over 2700m+ with Mullins in Ireland. This season on the flat, he's been pissing around in small fields but we know he's up for the fight in a handicap based on previous Cup runs and his Cheltenham hurdling form. From the inside gate, I'm inclined to leave him but he might be flying home late in a tremendous trial for 17 days later.

6. Land Legend - ran third in this race last year at 8.50 (beaten 6.25L, making his run from the 800m) but has done close to bugger all this campaign. Each time he's drawn wide and been pulled back to the rear of the field. He made a long searching run in the Underwood to finish a nice fifth but flopped either side of it. His chance to be in the finish is to make another long run but can he park close enough for it to be any use? Not for me but looking for a solid run towards Flemington.

7. Zardozi - seems to have lost the zest for racing and if she doesn't perform here, I think she'll be off to the breeding barn.

8. Adelaide River - ran second in the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris back in 2023 but hasn't looked the same horse for most of his time in Australia. His last two runs show he might be turning the corner though, a narrow second in the G3 Kingston Town (beaten a bob of the head) and then led in the Turnbull, finishing a close-up seventh beaten only 3.23L behind Sir Delius, Via Sistina, Half Yours, Deakin and Aeliana. Given he has to do all the hard work out in front rather than sit back with cover and sprint home, that's a huge run. Probably goes to the front and give a great sight.

9. Bankers Choice - not a hope in hell. Won the Mornington Cup to earn a free ticket into the race. And he'll be 100/1 so that's wasted.

10. Deakin - settled in the box seat andfinished a nice sixth in the Turnbull behind Sir Delius a fortnight ago. And I think that's about the best he can do here from an ideal draw. He won the Roy Higgins Quality in March which earned him a ticket to Flemington but the horses contesting those races are a level below those that qualify on their class. In the mix for a placing but don't think he's classy enough for the big prize.

11. Golden Snap - Japanese visitor whose ultimate aim is at Flemington. She needs to run in the top eight here to qualify, and given she's drawn the car park, that's probably her best possible result. Worth noting that the last time these connections brought a runner to Australia, they won the Cox Plate with Lys Gracieux. They know what they are doing.

12. Revelare - local hope probably better off at Flemington where stamina is more important than class. Qualified for the major Cup by winning the Archer last month but was then undone in the Bart Cummings a fortnight ago in a fast run race. Did the pressure get to him or had Robert Hickmott eased up on him in training to peak again here? Not for me here.

13. River of Stars - ran third in the Sydney Cup at her second start in Australia but has done precious little since, albeit over unsuitable distances. Out to 2400m, she'll stick on well from barrier four, but she lacks the acceleration to compete here unless it falls in her lap.

14. Birdman - going OK in Sydney in lesser staying events, winning the Kingston Town and seventh in the Metropolitan, beaten 2.62L, when given an impossible task from virtually last at the 800m, after drawing 16 of 18. I want to rule him out but I don't think I can. Teo Nugent is an excellent lightweight rider who can put him into a great position. Knockout chance.

15. Half Yours - the 'talking' horse that everyone has wanted to be on since he won the Naturalism a month ago. Followed that up with a solid fourth in the Turnbull behind genuine WFA horses, and drops in weight here. He ran away from them in the Naturalism but did have the dream run, parked behind the leader and then took off when the gap appeared. He might just get the same run here - but in a much higher pressure race, he could just as easily be locked away until far too late. Deserves to be favourite but back to handicap conditions, there'll be far more pressure on than he has seen in recent races. Can't back him at the price.

16. Royal Supremacy - second in the Newcastle Cup and winner of the G1 Metropolitan recently, arriving in fine form. He took a couple of runs in Australia before the Maher camp worked him out and since then he hasn't looked back with three wins from four starts. The Metropolitan is a significantly weaker race than this, a very questionable G1, but he stayed on well but needs to step forward again, going up 2.5kg in weight and a lot of class. Gets the singing jockey here and the perfect draw. The stable says there is more to come...

17. Valiant King - has run sixth and ninth in the last two editions of this race, with considerably different formlines coming in. Last year he had virtually no form, was set an impossible task from last, beaten a long way, and the year before he was straight out of quarantine, drew the inside rail, and finished 5L behind the winner. This time, he'd done virtually nothing before flying home late to win the Bart Cummings from last off a fast pace, starting 60/1! He won't have much choice but to hope for the same circumstances from gate 16.  

18. Plymouth - one of these horses who seems to be never far away but rarely good enough to win. Mixed it with Aeliana and Broadsiding in Sydney in the autumn, fourth in the Rosehill Guineas, sixth in the ATC Derby, before winning the Benalla Cup and running second in the Herbert Power last weekend, having every chance to run past the winner. That was in a rather slow time and he only drops one kilo into a far, far harder race. I like the horse but from gate 17, I just don't see it.

SUMMARY

Birdman
Half Yours
Meydaan
Vauban