Cheltenham 2026 - Day 1

Apologies, no time for fancy formatting here! Two full previews and a quick summary of the rest. 

CHELTENHAM TUESDAY

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

Baron Noir - beat El Cairos in a bumper at Punchestown in May but oddly hasn't surpassed that rating in three hurdles starts since. Has been very conservatively campaigned, at Warwick, Uttoxeter and Kempton, winning two of three, but that lack of progress in rating is very concerning. No.

Eachtotheirown - won a Galway maiden hurdle in October, ran fifth in the Royal Bond G2 beaten 20L and then returned to form with an impressive win in a Thurles handicap hurdle in January. The stable reported a few from their stable being off-form in Nov/Dec, so that covers the poor run, and last time he showed good speed to win easily. Not out of this.

El Cairos - exciting horse who needs to tidy up his jumping. Formerly owned and ridden by David Maxwell, he has plenty of Flat pace, running fifth in the Champion Bumper here last year, and second behind Baron Noir in one at Punchestown. He had a race shot to bits at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day before crashing down at the last, then went to Thurles a month later, making a mess of the last obstacle and still winning. He has a tremendous turn of foot and generally jumps ok, until he gets to the final hurdle. With a bit more work at home and a stronger field, he might be able to keep his mind on the job. Too risky to side with if he was 3 or 4/1, but prepared to take a chance at 7 or 8s. But I'd probably put in a lay offer at 1.3 just in case he hasn't been cured of all his demons. 

Koktail Brut - a November 'champion' but back into the rank and file when it comes to the big races. Or is he? Won his maiden at Punchestown, spreadeagling the field with margins of 9L x 25L, then did just enough to win the G2 Royal Bond. Next time out he bled from both nostrils and tailed off a long way back at Leopardstown over Xmas in a Grade 1. At the Dublin Racing Festival, he ran fourth at 11/1, beaten 6.5L behind Talk The Talk. That form's not that bad - mark him up a bit for a quick turnaround after a bleeding attack and he might be one at a big each-way price here.

Leader d'Allier - multiple winner in French bumpers, bringing big expectations when arriving in the Mullins yard. First up he ran second behind Ballyfad (who will be a leading chance in the Turners on Wednesday) at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day, then claimed an easy scalp in a Punchestown maiden a month later. Paul Townend rides which would normally be first choice for Willie Mullins, but the other two Mullins runners have jockeys designated by their owners. Think he'd be double the odds if not for the jockey & trainer.

Mighty Park - an enigma with few miles on the clock. Bought by JP McManus after running second on P2P debut, he won his only hurdles start by 38L in a Fairyhouse maiden. How good was that field? Not so great but the runner-up was far closer to El Cairos the next time. The betting was uncompetitive, the front two were well clear of the rest of the field and it looked that way on the course too. A stablemate ran second, and Paul Townend on the runner-up gave up very early. Mighty Park just jumped to the front and keep going with absolutely no pressure. Initially the talk was he'd go for a longer trip so it's a bit of a surprise to see him here. Too short in the betting for what he's faced so far but has drifted alarmingly since my first draft.

Mydaddypaddy - kicked off his hurdles career with comfortable wins at Carlisle and Haydock, then went around odds-on in the G1 Formby on Boxing Day at Aintree. That race was turned into a farce when unseasonal sunshine meant four out of the nine hurdles(all in the finishing straight) had to be omitted. Idaho Sun proved to be the better stayer that day, but Mydaddypaddy was denied the opportunity to take advantage of his superior jumping. This should be a great test for him.

Old Park Star - the Nicky Henderson star who heads the market. Has progressed nicely in three starts over hurdles, winning at Kempton, Cheltenham and Haydock, last time in a Grade 2. He has shown strong finishing speed coupled with solid jumping each time and looks a worthy favourite. The concern though is from his trainer. In previous years, he has been really bullish on his big stars - Altior, Shishkin, Constitution Hill etc., but this time he's not. Perhaps it's just a comparison against his most recent winner, the now-retired from jumping, Constitution Hill, but the lack of confidence is alarming.

Sageborough - won on debut at big odds in October, then ran last in the Grade 2 Royal Bond next time, behind Koktail Brut who is massive odds here and with no obvious excuse. Miles behind them on ratings. No.

Sober Glory - an impressive winner of six of his seven starts, with no apparent reason for defeat in the Listed Claremont Novices' Hurdle in December. He then went to Newbury twice and belted the field both times, winning by 13 and 27 lengths respectively. Loves to get out in front and bowl along, but that's a very big task stepping up to the highest level. Has progressively shortened since fields were declared.

Talk The Talk - won by the proverbial cigarette paper at the DRF, over Ballyfad and King Rasko Grey. He looked flat-footed on the bend and then powered home late to get himself out of trouble. Looked home in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle (G1) over Xmas, when he stumbled at the last. Jumped it fine, just landed funny and down he went. Prone to making little mistakes, I don't think he's the finished article. As such I'm prepared to risk him at the price. Big chance though.

Too Bossy For Us - pitched in at the deep end for his first two hurdle starts, ran seventh to Poniros in last year's Triumph (in a G1 at his first hurdle start!), then fifth in the 4YO Champion Hurdle at Punchestown, beaten 30L. His owners have more money than sense and just want to compete on the big days rather than race for peanuts. Battled to win a weak maiden at Punchestown last time, miles out of his depth here and probably looking for a longer trip.

One trend to note - only three winners out of the last 11 runnings have not won their last two starts, so don't go getting too fancy with your selections. This also creates a shortlist of three - Old Park Star, Sober Glory and Baron Noir. However, I'm prepared to ignore that..

VERDICT

This is a strong race with a solid group at the top of the market, but the one who has really impressed me is EL CAIROS. He just has speed, and with the final hurdle being moved back significantly this year, that could be a key factor in the race - assuming he's managed to jump them all! At 8 or 9/1, I'm prepared to take that risk. My rank outsider is Eachtotheirown, I liked his handicap win last time and Sober Glory goes in as well.

El Cairos

Eachtotheirown

Sober Glory

FRED WINTER (MCCOY CONTRACTORS JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE)

Mustang du Breuil - another McManus runner, ran third against older rivals last time in a Novice Hcp Hurdle. Made a couple of minor jumping errors which proved costly. in the mix here. Ignore the jockey choices for the three runners in the green & gold, that'll probably be due to stable/geographical ties rather than a pecking order.

Ammes  - handy Flat performer with an OR of 90, ran honorably in big Ascot & Goodwood 3yo handicaps last season. Convincing winner of his first two hurdles starts, then ran second to leading Triumph Hurdle fancy Minella Study at Wetherby at the end of October. The third horse, Tralee Girl, ran second to Highland Crystal next time out, who then went on to beat Saratoga and Munsif at her next race, carrying a double (14lb) penalty. Having qualified for this race, to keep the nice handicap mark he was sent to Kempton for a Flat race last month to blow out the cobwebs. Will go close.

Winston Junior - leading UK hope who has looked talented in three hurdles starts without blowing his handicap mark. Was beaten by Minella Study in the Triumph Trial here in December, then won very easily at Ascot a month later. Not quite top class but good enough to win this. If you've not heard of the trainer Faye Bramley, she trains from a yard owned by the great AP McCoy. 

Harwa - French import who only cost €50k at the Arqana Sales in November after two seconds in as many appearances but bolted in at Fairyhouse on Irish debut last month, cruising up to the runaway leaders and going straight past them in the closing stages. That was in an open aged maiden, so not sure if that was a tougher task than against 4yos, or they weren't much good. Has copped his fair share of weight here, needs to have a bit more in the tank to win. Five of the last nine winners have carried 11-5 or more, three with 11-8 or more, so if he's good enough, it's not a negative.

Saratoga - former Coolmore colt who has since lost the 'two stone' and joined JP McManus' empire as a hurdler. He was a handy Flat horse but nothing special, just a couple of pounds higher than Ammes (the same gap in their weights here). He's yet to win in three runs over obstacles which isn't a great shock for JP McManus, but I'm not convinced he's that good. There's every chance that JP is holding something back but I can't have him as favourite, or even as the best of the McManus trio. Mark Walsh is aboard, but he's usually the first choice for the Irish runners rather than the other two trained in the UK.

Madness d'Elle - not a filly, despite the name. Won a maiden hurdle at his second attempt, and copped quite a hefty weight for the privilege. The colours and the connections seem to have influenced his price more than the class if his win.

Dignam - summer jumper who hasn't run since a fifth in a Grade 1 at Auteuil in heavy going last November. Very rare for a summer jumper to progress into a Cheltenham winner but Joseph O'Brien is very sharp. The tracks have dried up in his favour. Completely guessing on him, happy to let him go.

Glen To Glen - has been tipped up by a few. Similar Flat rating to Ammes and Saratoga, ran fourth at Royal Ascot in the Golden Gates. Had two cosy starts tucked back in the field before a win last time out over a handy benchmark called Ole Ole, who has run second to Quinto Do Lago, Glen To Glen and Hardy Stuff who all line up here! Those defeats were all at level weights by no more than a length. A frustrating horse to own. Back to Glen To Glen, and his trainer Joseph O'Brien has won this two years in a row and three times in the past seven. Needs a big step up in rating to win this but some seem to think he's capable of that. 

Quinto Do Lago - another Irish runner with a seemingly harsh mark. After beating Ole Ole back in November, he's taken on the big guns, finishing sixth behind Narciso Has (clear Triumph fav until ruled out by injury) and then third to Proactif (current Triumph fav). Can he return to the winner's circle back in handicap company? Can't be ruled out but despite saddlecloth 17, the spread of weights doesn't seem so attractive. Cheekpieces first time here.

Hardy Stuff - fourth behind QDL in November, beat Ole Ole at Xmas, then ran a shocker in the January Triumph trial here, 'running too free' according to the trainer. That was a 10-runner field that day, perhaps the capacity field here resolves that. Odds around 25/1 provides the premium for that concern.

Bertutea - obviously classy with topweight but flopped last time at the Dublin Racing Festival. Tongue tie applied, not the worst at that price.

VERDICT

Absolutely wide open with coat tugs and 'inside knowledge' everywhere. I'm steering around the big names with HARWA. I was impressed with his stalk & accelerate style at Fairyhouse on his Irish debut. He comes from a completely different formline to everything else so he's hard to line up... which also means he's likely to be underestimated. At 20/1 on the books and 30 on Betfair, he's the one for me. I think Ammes is being overlooked with Manlaga and Mustang de Breuil to fill the placings.

Harwa

Ammes

Manlaga

Mustang De Breuil

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Quick summary of the rest of the card:

ARKLE

Against Lulamba here, made hard work of it last time at Newbury and got pipped by a 100/1 shot here last year in the Triumph. Just a little short for me. Kopek Des Bordes is a machine but hasn't run since November, his chase debut. Trust Willie. Steel Ally as the surprise result.

Kopek Des Bordes, Steel Ally, Lulamba

ULTIMA

Lots of chances here, experienced handicappers playing games to get a nice mark, spring ground etc.

Jagwar looks the obvious one but word is he had to run here over 3m+ to qualify for the Grand National. That angle has been successful before but doesn't appeal as being his preferred route.

Hyland is top of my shortlist, will love the drier ground and has a great record here. Down 4lbs since running second to The Jukebox Man in the Kauto Star G1 at Kempton in Dec 24. Looks a plot job.

The Short Go might be a big price, ran fifth in this last year after being caught a long way back and gets a decent weight pull over Myretown this time.

Hyland, The Short Go, Konfusion, Quebecois

CHAMPION HURDLE

Lossiemouth has an exceptional record here and doesn't have to face Constitution Hill or State Man this year.

Golden Ace had all the cards fall in her favour last year and she's improved since, while The New Lion steps up in class but can handle the rise.

Lossiemouth, Golden Ace, The New Lion

SUN RACING PLATE

Darts thrown...

Madara, Downmexicoway, Down Memory Lane, Zurich

NH CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE

Newton Tornado, Backmeorsackme, Holloway Queen