So close to a bonanza yesterday, had two horses that looked home for all money going up the Hill and then…tears.
We saddle up one more time!
TRIUMPH HURDLE
Apolon De Charnie - unseen since being purchased out of France. Ran last at only start in France, then 6L second (at 50/1) to Proactif, one of the market leaders here. The rules have changed to stop hurdling debutants running, could this be Willie's latest way to play with the rules?
Berto Ramirez - millions, owners here for the party.
Fantasy World - decent Flat rating, similar to Saratoga on Tuesday, but has disappointed at two runs over hurdles - beaten 15L both times in weaker company. Nope.
Forty Fifty - another one playing Mullins bingo. Ran fourth behind Macho Man at Auteuil on debut. Probably favourite that day based on the stable. Who knows how good he is?
Indian River - has won all three over hurdles on northern tracks, but that form wouldn't even be good enough to run a place in the Fred Winter (a weaker, handicap version of this race run on Tuesday). No.
Kai Lung - bought off the Flat in France, running in the southern region so hard to line up the form. Won on debut at Naas, beating Saratoga, in the race which is usually a great prep race for the Fred Winter - and he wasn't the stable first pick that day. That was his first race for almost eight months, so he's entitled to be fitter here.
Lord Byron - hasn't progressed enough in three starts to be a contender here. No.
Macho Man - another one imported from France. Ran second to Proactif on both their Irish debuts, a couple of sloppy jumps enough to leave him a few lengths behind. Did look to have talent though, doesn't deserve to be this far apart from Proactif in the odds. They were virtually equal favs that at Fairyhouse.
Maestro Conti - winner of three from three including the Triumph Trial in late Jan. Not convinced the UK form is worth much here as his last victim, One Horse Town, is 66/1.
Minella Academy - bought out of a small Irish yard for €370k after winning well on debut at Cork. Danny Mullins to ride so perhaps he's in the top three in the stable? Nothing from his debut race has turned into anything useful so hard to assess his ability.
Minella Study - gave Winston Junior 7lb and a 6.5L beating here in December. That horse was runner-up in the Fred Winter on Tuesday. Low key connections, wouldn't be those odds if he was in a big stable.
Mon Creuset - yet another Mullins horse purchased out of France. Was favourite in the race won by Kai Lung when he made a mess of the second-last hurdle, after looking like he was about to take over. Has the talent, can he jump better?
North Shore - another French-bred, this time who has raced twice in Ireland, 11L behind one-time race favourite Narciso Has both times. That puts him about 6L behind Selma De Vary. Not hopeless, stable going OK this week, one winner and several not far off.
One Horse Town - had been running well against the English contenders but limitations were exposed when beaten 13L by La Luna Artista at Kempton three weeks ago.
Proactif - market leader after two wins over opponents today, Apolon De Charnie and Macho Man. Didn't look invincible though, would need a bit more in a competitive race like this.
Wolf Rayet - beaten three times with a weight advantage against good horses (Ammes & Minella Study) or in a weak race at Ludlow. not up to these.
Highland Crystal - has won three from three, twice in Fillies' races but then ahead of Saratoga (giving him 7lbs as well) in a race at Naas last month. Fillies can win this and Gordon Elliott is finally off the mark this week.
Noemie De Las Vis - another French purchase, made her Irish debut in an open-aged fillies & mares' maiden over half a mile further in January, led for most of the race, had some distractions by a loose horse and then lost her rhythm at the last hurdle, finishing second. Perhaps bottom of the pile for Mullins, but so was Poniros…
Selma De Vary - another handy Mullins one out of France, got within 5L of Narciso Has who was a dominant favourite for this before he had a setback last week.
Tenter Le Tout - interesting form through Klycot (third in the Fred Winter), beating him by 7L, but was a long way behind Maestro Conti and other rivals here in January. No.
VERDICT
Nine to pick from for Willie Mullins, might end up boxing them for the trifecta and cheering the roughies. This is mighty tough.
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COUNTY HURDLE
Ndaawi ran second in this last year off a 16lbs lower mark, won the Galway Hurdle in July to earn that impost. Very tough task now.
Absurde hasn't been seen since the Melbourne Cup but has run first and third in this race for the past two years off 138 and 146. Now off 155 which will really test him. Can't be underestimated though.
Bowensonfire was running off 35lbs less last May and has been in brilliant form ever since, apart from unseating at the first in the Galways Hurdle. 11 runs for four wins, never worse than fourth (when completing the course) and finished the stretch with two big field handicap wins at Leopardstown at Xmas and the DRF, with several of these behind him. Comes from the back and picks his way through the field, held off a big handicap punt on a Byrnes' runner last time. Big chance.
Karbau is yet another star of the Mullins empire. He went through the top novice hurdles last season, finishing a long way behind Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme, third behind Salvator Mundi at Aintree and then third between that pair in the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle. He returned this season in the G3 Limestone Lad at Naas, beaten a length in heavy ground, but keeping his rating in check for this. Paul Townend is in flying form this week with three winners and four seconds in two days, with an overall strike rate of 48% winners in the last 14 days. Has been popular on the preview circuit, will go mighty close.
Hello Neighbour - got his career off to a flying start winning his first four starts before running sixth in last year's Triumph. Since then, it's been a bit harder. After a third to Lulamba at Punchestown, he took a two-month break, had a terrible Flat run beaten 18L in early July, then had six months off before poor runs at Xmas and the DRF, both beaten around 18L again. One was behind Lossiemouth but the other was behind Bowensonfire and Murcia. On talent, he should be right in that mix but he's off the boil right now.
Wilful is an honest hurdler, having finished no worse than fifth in his past five. One of those was a fifth in a big field Listed Handicap Hurdle at Punchestown. Has the ability but might just be up to the limit of his rating.
Pinot Gris was beaten a long way behind Bowensonfire last time in heavy going, but he's gone ok on that before. Ran eighth, beaten 5L here last year at 14/1. Will be several times those odds today.
Murcia won a G1 Juvenile last season at Aintree but has been tricky to place since. Or was it a long-term plot? This is the classiest of the handicap hurdles so it makes sense to plan ahead for this one. Fourth in the Punchestown Festival juvenile, third behind Talk The Talk in a G3 and then fourth behind Bowensonfire in heavy going at the DRF. He ran wide the whole time in that race - a search for betting going or a convenient way to keep his rating? Meets that winner 11lbs better off. He will be popular in the betting.
Tripoli Flyer was next in the betting against Constitution Hill recently at Southwell but finished seventh, beaten 17L. Won a few races to start his hurdling career but has been on the same mark for seven runs now, seems to be at the top of his handicap and unlikely to step forward.
Helvic Dream doesn't run over hurdles much of late, chasing richer targets on the Flat or preserving his hurdles rating for the right target. Noel Meade won the Bumper yesterday but generally his strike rate is pretty low these days.
Sixandahalf ran second here last year in the Mares' Novice, and ran 7.5L behind Wodhooh over Xmas. This is an ambitious target but don't underestimate Gavin Cromwell. He trained the winner of the Cross-Country on Wednesday, with this jockey aboard.
Jubilee Alpha also ran in the Mares' Novice last yeat, running eighth, and then won a weaker version of the same race type a month later. That bumped her up to around 140 and she's struggled to win off that. Three seconds out of four runs this season, she drops back in distance here. Not sure if that's what she needs right now.
Williethebuilder has been winning again since switching trainers but ran fourth in the Scottish County Hurdle six weeks ago after landing a couple of weaker handicaps at Kempton. Not much room left in his current mark, no.
Sticktotheplan returns after a wind operation with the addition of a tongue tie. Ignoring his last run, a 27L defeat behind Wilful, his previous two runs were in G2s for a win and a third. Back in July he won a Listed Hurdle at the Galway Festival, surprising punters at 22/1. Olly Murphy has a profitable record with runners after their first wind surgery, at a handy 17% win strike rate.
Cracking Rhapsody beat Kabral Du Mathan in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last year and also the Morebattle for the second time, but this campaign has been underwhelming, carrying big weights at Haydock and at Kelso again in the Morebattle. Drops considerably in weight, a stone and a half, might find a new lease of life being able to accelerate again.
Joyeuse - ran four times in two weeks earlier in the season without winning, perhaps taking too much out of her and the two month break might spark improvement. Gently sliding down the weights, might spark some improvement. After all, it's a McManus runner in a handicap.
Gibbs Island has picked off a couple of Class 2 handicaps but tends to be found out in the bigger races. Huge odds for a reason.
Hamlet's Night had been flying after joining the James Owen stable in the summer, winning three and finishing second in three more until he went to Kelso and needed binoculars to see the winner. That run in the Morebattle though was on a quick 10 day backup and perhaps too soon for him after a Flat win at Kelso. Big odds if you can forgive one bad run. SCR.
Balko D'Ange has been racing behind Bowensonfire in his recent big Irish handicap form, will meet him 19lbs better for the last contest. Can't see it but will have been set for this.
Bowmore wants good ground but also a much weaker race. Expecting him to be run off his legs.
Tellherthename only joined the Skeltons recently and has been set for this. Will be a great training effort as he hasn't raced since a bleeding attack in October. Has form around Jango Baie and Sir Gino.
Sinnatra has been cleaning up in small fields, winning one at Sandown by 55L in January. Lightly raced, found two tough maidens early in the season, coming second to Captain Hugo (Morebattle winner) and Act Of Innocence (second in the Turners on Wednesday). Sneaks into the field down the bottom and is the stable pick. Big chance.
Secret Squirrel beat Kabral Du Mathan a year ago at Windsor, but fell at his next start and took a year off. Probably not.
Ooh Betty won at Ascot last time in a field of four, but beaten over 20L at three previous starts. Can pull out big runs occasionally.
VERDICT
Sinnatra, Karbau, Sticktotheplan, Bowensonfire
MARES
Panic Attack, Spindleberry, Dinoblue
GOLD CUP
What a race this promises to be. If it’s half as good as the King George on Boxing Day, we’re in for a classic edition.
Envoi Allen - not as a 12yo
Firefox - well short of these
Gaelic Warrior will probably start favourite. Mullins, Townend, the pink silks of Rich Ricci and he’s just so honest. Was beaten a nose by a nose in the King George, won the John Durkan, ran second to Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup at the DRF. Used to run keenly but seems to have settled that down, now stays on well over 3m. Goes mighty close.
Gold Tweet - ten horses would need to fall for him to win.
Grey Dawning - picks off the cheap G1s like the Betfair Chase, not classy enough for this level.
Haiti Couleurs - the Welsh hope looking to replicate Native River in 2018, a die-hard stayer who wants a real stamina test. Likely to go to the front and will try to grind them all down. Overnight rain will help greatly.
Two from two at Cheltenham, six from eight over fences, loves three miles plus. The wide open race might work in his favour.
Inothewayurthinkin won this race last season but has been poor since. Fifth, ninth, fell, all at Grade 1 level and this is even harder.
Jango Baie won the Arkle (two miles) with a storming finish last season and has been aimed at this ever since. Beaten just half a length in that amazing King George finish, no reason to think he can’t win this, especially the way he climbed the hill last March.
L’Homme Presse has been around the traps for several seasons but has only won twice in over three years. Won’t be stopping but won’t be catching them either.
Spillane’s Tower is often talked up by the Irish pundits who like the small stables, and occasionally they do spring one in the big race. But last time here he battles to beat L’Homme Presse receiving 7lbs from the veteran. He’ll be more finally tuned for this but he can run against me today.
The Jukebox Man - I’ve loved this horse since the Albert Bartlett of 2024 when he was just pipped in the heavy. Four from four over fences, missed the Festival last season and hasn’t been overtaxed. Was headed after the last fence in the King George after leading much of the way but dug in to get his nose in front right on the line, winning by the proverbial bee’s dick. Why can’t he keep going? It’s a new trip for him but he has risen to the challenge every time so far and someone else will surely set the pace.
VERDICT
Got to stick with Harry Redknapp’s The Jukebox Man but this shapes as a race with many chances.
The Jukebox Man, Haiti Couleurs, Jango Baie, Gaelic Warrior
FOXHUNTERS
Not even going to try and unravel the form here. Darts thrown at
Golden Son, Shearer, Stattler, Wonderwall
MARTIN PIPE
As above…
Enjoy the day!
Andashan, Hot Fuss, Roc Dino, Kel Histoire
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