Oaks Preview

It's Classic weekend and it kicks off on Friday with the Oaks at Epsom. I won't ramble on about my usual reservations about the venue, you've heard it all before, or can look back in previous posts. June is a funny time for me, the domain renewal notice comes through and every year it's a question of do I continue or not, after starting this thing 18 years ago! Obviously, there's at least one more year of it...

Oaks & Derby crowds have been nothing short of dismal in recent years but the Jockey Club to their credit have finally done something about it. The proof will be the pudding, hopefully the weather is half-decent so the public shows up, even if it is in the cheap seats in the middle!

Will we ever see an Epsom crowd like this again?

Aidan O'Brien has won eight of the last 14 editions of the race (11 overall), that's a handy starting point. John Gosden, now partnered with his son Thady on the licence, has won four including the greats Enable and Taghrooda, while Ralph Beckett has taken the race twice.

Of the jockeys, only Ryan Moore (five times) has previously won the race.

THE BETFRED OAKS
Epsom
£625,000
Group 1 for 3yo Fillies
1m4f
1600 local, Sat 0100 AEST

1. A La Prochaine

- means 'see you next time' in French. Costs £550k as a yearling, a half-sister to Mr Hollywood who ran second in a German Derby, last in Ace Impact's Arc de Triomphe and is now running over hurdles for Willie Mullins. Has only raced twice, winning a late-season Newbury maiden last October and then third behind Amelia Earhart and I'm The One in the Cheshire Oaks. She dwelt at the start there, from the inside draw which was against the rail on the tight-turning course. Sat last until the straight, and kept on well only conceding another length more to the winner (in her sixth start) from their settling positions. Given some more education and that run under her belt, an improved performance would not be a surprise.

2. Amelia Earhart

- very impressive since stepping out to a bit of distance, winning her maiden by seven length over a mile last October, then resuming with a strong win in the Cheshire Oaks. Following the same route as last year's winner Minnie Hauk, trainer Aidan O'Brien loves using Chester as an Epsom trial, it makes horses constantly think as they are always turning, so they focus on balance which is critical at Epsom. The choice of Ryan Moore, she's entitled to be favourite, but has a few decent ones against her so I doubt it will that simple.

3. Cameo

- the second pick for 'the lads', she won the Lingfield Oaks Trial very easily, recording a 4lbs higher Racing Post Rating than Amelia Earhart. She's also had the benefit of six starts, her form has been a little up and down but last time out was a big step forward. Can keep going.

4. K Sarra

- thrice-raced filly who is a sister to Pride of Arras, the Dante & Voltigeur winner of last season who ran shockers in both the English & Irish Derbys, leading to a bit of surgery to calm him down. This filly is also showing talent, easily winning her maiden in November then running third to Legacy Link in the Musidora, settling at the back, not being rushed and then working home nicely towards the line. She'll no doubt be better for that experience but she was left a little flat-footed when the winner went for home. She will need to be more on her game here to be competitive but her odds will compensate for that risk. Don't read too much into stable preferences - James Doyle is the retained rider for Wathnan so therefore he would always ride A La Prochaine, while Rossa Ryan would get the choice of K Sarra and On Message.

5. Legacy Link

- a two-time winner from four starts, she ran the highest Racing Post Rating of any in this field when winning the Musidora at York, traditionally a strong Oaks trial, although the runner-up seemd to taper off late. By Dubawi, who had a terrible record in these classics until Ezeliya won this race two years ago, she looks very classy and should improve further from that run, as she has each time she has hit the track. Solid chance, has the Gosden polish.

6. On Message

- has been competing in weaker races and looks like her best chance is to sneak a place to greatly enhance her breeding page. Won here in April so she'll have an advantage over all her rivals there but beaten last time by two fillies who would start big odds here.

7. Sugar Island

- third string for Aidan O'Brien, beaten comfortably in the Cheshire Oaks. Didn't handle the undulations at Newmarket last year, this is much trickier to navigate.

8. Thundering On

- beaten by Cameo and Sugar Island as a 2yo, she relished the step up in distance to win the G3 Salsabil at Naas, a race won by Ezeliya in 2024. As a formline, the O'Brien filly Bloom ran third, beaten 3.75L, and was then beaten 7.25L at Lingfield behind Cameo. Trainer Joseph O'Brien has won the Irish Derby, a St Leger and two Melbourne Cups, but none of the Classics at Epsom or Newmarket. It's only a matter of time but she does seem to be unduly short in the betting.

9. Venetian Lace

- has only won one from seven, but with quite strong formlines. After winning on debut, she has already raced in Listed or Group company, finishing her 2yo season with a second at 40/1 to Precise in the G1 Fillies' Mile (two places ahead of Legacy Link) and then resumed this season with a third in the 1000 Guineas behind True Love, this time at 33/1. Steps up from a mile but is by a Derby winner, Masar, out of a mare who won over 1m2f early in her 3yo season, so the distance shouldn't be an issue. Mark Johnston never won a Classic at Epsom, but his son Charlie ran second in the Derby last year and is not without a chance here. William Buick to ride is a plus.

VERDICT

With only nine in the race, barriers should make little difference. A few of them have led before, but I'd expect Sugar Island and Venetian Lace to make the running, with the main rivals parked close behind. 

It's been a while since we've had a roughie win, 2011-2015 saw three at 20/1 and a 50/1 winner. Lately the highest-priced winner has been Anapurna at 8/1 in 2019. I have favourable memories of that one and Anthony Van Dyck the next day as well!

It's always sexy for a pundit to avoid the favourite and chase bigger prices. You don't much credit for backing favourites and it's only the winners that people remember at better odds. The favourite looks handy but at 9/4, I'm not lining up to back her. I didn't think Legacy Link was overly impressive at York, she battled hard to beat Felicitas who didn't quite run out the trip.

Two I like at double figure odds are Venetian Lace and A La Prochaine. The former comes straight from the 1000 Guineas but plenty have done that successfully before - usually only the exceptional ones though. She'll be on the pace and I think she'll prove tough to get past. 

A La Prochaine has raw talent which might just convert into results at any moment. If she gets away better and takes a position, she can be right in the finish.

BACK Venetian Lace (14/1) and A La Prochaine (10/1) each way.