It's time for Royal Ascot again and it might just be a Goldilocks week on the weather front - not too hot, not too cold - perfect. Should be a high-class week but with a plethora of other events on, unfortunately I won't get there this year. Ah well, will have to cheer on the Aussies from home!
14.30 QUEEN ANNE STAKES
Cicero's Gift - fluked the QE II Stakes on Champions Day here last year at 100/1, beating the ill-fated Lion In Winter and the over-rated Field of Gold amongst others. Oh and Docklands who needs all the planets in alignment. Whilst he was massive odds, he'd at least been running in weaker races. There's no form at all to recommend him this time, beaten 7L in the Bet365 Mile and the Lockinge. Pass.
Damysus - entered in all the big mile to 1m2f races in Britain and Ireland this season, the Wathnan guys think they have a proper horse here. But so far, he's a G3 and Listed winner, barely beating Cicero's Gift in the G1 Lockinge a month ago when second fav. Big improvement required if he's to match it with the Godolphin pair.
Docklands - still shocked that he won this race last year. This edition looks stronger but if the main contenders aren't at their peak, he'll be snapping at their heels. Impeccable record here, eight starts for three wins, three seconds, a third and a fourth, with two wins and a second at this meeting. Beaten under a length by two locals in the HK Champions Mile six weeks ago. Mark Zahra to ride again, you never know...
More Thunder - mighty talented entire who ran at 1m2f for Sir Michael Stoute, then 6 or 7f last season and now they've stepped him up to a mile. Either way, he has loads of class and is competitive wherever he is entered. Won four races last season from April to August with his only defeat by a head in the Wokingham. Resuming in the Lockinge, he ran home nicely for second behind Notable Speech, maintaining the gap between them for most of the race. Like to settle back in the field - the higher you go in class, the harder it is to make up ground on the front-runners. Has been tipped by a lot of pundits this week, think his price is getting rather tight.
Notable Speech - the one to beat after a strong win in the G1 Lockinge at Newbury a month ago, a career-best effort on the ratings, ahead of his Woodbine Mile and Breeders' Cup Mile wins last season. Worryingly, he has failed twice at this meeting - seventh in the St James' Palace two years as 6/4 fav after winning the Guineas, then fourth in this race behind Docklands, both times with Buick aboard. Which one will turn up? Not sure I'd be lining up for the 2/1 with his Royal Ascot record...
Opera Ballo - the other Godolphin runner totting up a very nice scorecard, winning seven from nine so far. Returning to the UK after a successful winter stint in Dubai, he unleashed a powerful sprint to win the Bet 365 Mile at Sandown, beating several of these (Zeus Olympios, Cicero's Gift, Dancing Gemini) by further than his stablemate did at Newbury and conceding weight in a few cases. Can lead, might be the safer option.
Zeus Olympios - began his career with four consecutive wins, including beating Opera Ballo in the G2 Joel Stakes but has let his opponents catch up based on ths year's racing - running third behind Opera Ballo at Sandown, and third again behind Notable Speech. Stable are bullish.
VERDICT
I think it goes to one of the Godolphin runners and Opera Ballo seems the safer option. A better strike rate, he beat several of these by further in recent runs and can dictate terms.#
OPERA BALLO, Notable Speech, Zeus Olympios
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15.05 COVENTRY STAKES
Confucius - the latest boom colt from Coolmore. Narrowly beaten on debut on a soft track, stepped forward to a 3.75L win at Naas next time out. Still a bit green and wandered around a bit when in front. Cost 1.7milllion guineas as a yearling, by a Norfolk Stakes winner out of a Cheveley Park Stakes winner, he's bred to be very quick.
Great Barrier Reef - the supposed second string from the Aidan O'Brien stable but has recorded the higher Racing Post Rating, although that run was three weeks later than his stablemate's so would suggest that's roughly equivalent allowing for juvenile maturity. Bolted in on debut to win by six lengths, followed up with an impressive win in the G3 Marble Hill over a decent stablemate. Looks straightforward and is versatile in his racing style.
Night In Vegas - the leading British chance in the hands of Eve Johnson Houghton who took Zavateri to multiple Group wins last season, including over the winner of this race, Gstaad, in a G1. Won a three-runner conditions race at Goodwood last time in nice style. While the field was small, the form looks tidy as both opponents were from strong stables and had won their previous starts, while at Ascot on debut, he beat the market fancies from Godolphin and the Gosdens. Drawn high, often the place to be in straight races, next to the favourite. Solid chance.
Ruler's Pride - won comfortably on debut at Ayr, beating the subsequent Hilary Needler winner by 3.25L. Will be ridden by superstar Kiwi jockey James McDonald who comes fresh from a G1 win in Brisbane on Saturday. JMac has won four times at Royal Ascot, absolutely nothing is lost by having him aboard for Wathnan Racing. I'd more concerned about the sire, Mehmas, who is regarded as a source of flying 2yos, yet bizarrely as a Royal Ascot record of 0/76!
Royal Heritage - the second Wathnan colt and the choice of retained rider James Doyle. His win at Hamilton last week on debut was effortless, Doyle never budged on him before winning by an easy 2.75L. Cost £800k at the breeze-up sales, could be anything on exposed form.
Siouxperb - from the powerful Archie Watson stable who love a good juvenile. Looked very handy winning his only start at Yarmouth back in April. In his wake that day was O'Gorman who has won his subsequent two starts. Dad won the Norfolk Stakes so he's bred to be precocious.
Cut A Dash - won a decent novice race at York a month ago, earning a decent RPR. Richard Hannon jr is not the juvenile force his father was but he can produce a good one. Drawn next to Confucius and Night In Vegas which sets it up nicely for him.
God Given Talent - showed a good turn of foot to win a Newbury maiden on debut with an SP of 28/1. That surprise win means the stable don't seem to know exactly how good he can be. William Buick taking the saddle is a good yet unusual move (rare for Godolphin not to have a runner here), and the soon-to-retire trainer is talking him up. Not without a shout.
Cicilian - this one interests me at a big price. Trainer Brian Meehan won this with Rashabar at 80/1 just two years ago and this one will be well down the betting. On debut, he ran second to the previously once-raced The Ginger Kid at Nottingham. On that occasion, they were side by side for most of the race until The Ginger Kid found room to make his run, while this son of Blackbeard had to wait for space. He was at least two lengths behind the winner at the furlong pole, and worked home well once clear to be beaten just half a length. He's got a fair bit to make up on the market leaders but there might just be reason to be hopeful.
The Ginger Kid - flopped on debut at York but then followed that up with a 20/1 win at Nottingham over the aforementioned Cicilian. Looked like he gave everything that day but can still improve. Does have the Mehmas jinx against him (0/76 at Royal Ascot).
Mrair - highly rated by connections and has started odds-on at both starts. A tad unlucky losing to a good Godolphin colt who should be undefeated from two (unseated rider when in control at second start), then started 1/6 to beat Final Objective at Lingfield last time, skipping clear a long way to remove any chance of repeated bad luck. More to find to be competitive here but they rate this one. Has the Mehmas stat to overcome.
High King - probably out of his depth here but did turn his form right around last time with a dominant win at Fairyhouse, after being very green on debut at the Curragh. Longshot chance.
The Harv - Irish raider who made his debut at Goodwood, which is a little unusual. Started odds-on and fought on well to win on the line. Swaps from Oisin Murphy to Colin Keane here, so connections have obviously been talking him up to the higher echelon of jockeys. Needs a big step up to catch the market leaders.
VERDICT
I'm probably ignoring the obvious here with stable jockey assignments but I'm more interested in Great Barrier Reef than Confucius on performances so far. However, if the straight course favours the high draw, he's drawn the wrong side in gate 3. With a small field for the Queen Anne beforehand, we can only guess. So I'm going to split them up into two sets of tips, for the inner and outer rails. Take one from each side and cover yourself, bit ignoring the bias, I'll have Great Barrier Reef each-way and a little on Cilician at a massive price.
GREAT BARRIER REEF, Cilician, Royal Heritage (inside bias)
RULER'S PRIDE, Night In Vegas, Confucius (grandstand bias)
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15.40 KING CHARLES III STAKES
American Affair - won this race last year then promptly got injured and took 11 months off. Did nothing at York but backed up quickly and was beaten only a length by Night Raider into second in the Temple Stakes at Haydock, a race he ran fifth in last year. His win last year was the lowest-rated winning performance since 2016. This edition might be slightly stronger.
Big Mojo - ran second in the July Cup and won the Sprint Cup, both G1s, last season, but has shown little of that form in two runs since. Will not doubt be fitter for his one run this season when 5L behind Elmonjed in the G2 Minster Stakes at York. Usually runs at 6f rather than five, connections hoping the sharper trip might stir him up. Ran seventh without much luck in the Commonwealth Cup last year. At his best, right in this. On recent form, not so much.
Night Raider - gelded after a frustrating campaign last season and it has certainly done the trick. Has claimed the G3 Palace House and G2 Temple Stakes in two runs this season, showing versatility by leading throughout in the former and missing the start and coming from near last in the latter. His biggest test but is clearly the best of the locals.
Getreadytorumble - didn't do a lot at Haydock last time but was unlucky behind Mission Central the start before at Naas, conceding 7lbs to the 3yo. Was consistently progressive last year coming through the ranks and this shouldn't be out of his reach based on that. Outside chance.
Overpass - Aussie sprinter who has won over AUD12m and run in the first two 17 times out of 36 starts. Has won the two big Western Australian races (the Winterbottom and the Quokka) twice each, but nothing quite as big on the east coast. Did run 1.5L fourth behind Ka Ying Rising in last year's Everest, and has been close up with Nature Strip and Joliestar over the years. Generally runs at 6f rather than five, but the Ascot test should level that out. If Asfoora can win this race (2024), then so can this one. Watch out if he does win because Bjorn Baker likes a celebration!
Rumstar - ran a close second to Night Raider in the G3 Palace House at Newmarket last month. That was about as well as he's ever run but as a 6yo, you wouldn't expect much room left for improvement. There's never much between this group, in with a shot.
Asfoora - Aussie mare who won this race two years ago, then the Nunthorpe and Prix de L'Abbaye last year. Last season she wasn't ready first-up in Britain, this time she's third up and been awful in two runs for Lemos de Souza, who was covering for Henry Dwyer. She might be able to miraculously bounce back for her target race, but I think she's pining for the breeding barn now.
Frost At Dawn - was in fine form last season, running second in this, third in the Nunthorpe and fourth in the King George at Goodwood. But miles off that form in two runs this season behind Night Raider. Returning to a good-to-firm surface here will need to spark a revival.
Monteille - French sprinter who finished alongside Rayevka in two Dubai runs this year, beat her in a G3 last September and ran eighth in this race last season at 150/1. Will be much better value than Rayevka.
Rayevka - rapid French filly who ran third behind Time For Sandals in the Commonwealth Cup last season. Record is only three wins from 12 starts so I'm not sure the reputation she has is fully earned. Ran sixth in the Champions Sprint here last October, behind a 200/1 winner. Out of the placings in two starts in Dubai in the autumn, then won a weak G3 at Longchamp a month ago. Can't have, terrible price.
Rosy Affair - very genuine mare who has won six from 15 starts, including three stakes races out of six, and out of the first two just three times (one third and two fourths, never further than 2.25L from the winner). Owned by the same billionaire who won the Oaks with Thundering Now. Generally runs in Listed/G3 class but we've seen before there's not a lot of difference from Group 1 down to Listed for sprinters in this part of the world. Right in the mix.
Time For Sandals - last year's Commonwealth Cup winner but that's by far her best level of form. Will be reunited with Richard Kingscote who was aboard for the G1 win here, but these days plies his trade in Hong Kong. Has started favourite in both runs this year, the G3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket and the G2 Minster at York, running unplaced each time with every chance. Might revel in the big field here with a bit of cover, but I can't have her. Drops in trip.
Behike - has won both starts this year at Lingfield, turf and AW, in relative ease. Big step up here but connections obviously have a big opinion of him.
Mission Central - this one would be running in the Commonwealth Cup on Friday if he was still intact, but after running greenly on debut, the decision was swiftly made to end his breeding prospects. Since then he has won five out of seven, winning at the Curragh, Ascot and Naas on big straight tracks. Ryan Moore flew to Naas twice to ride him (along with a couple of other leading Royal Ascot chances) so he's been doing his homework. Gets a 6lb weight advantage on the older males and drawn high.
VERDICT
Good race with a big field. Overpass is a better sprinter than Asfoora, if he's travelled well, I think this race is at his mercy. Rosy Affair and Mission Central for the minors, with Night Raider the danger if the inside is the place to be instead.
OVERPASS, Rosy Affair, Mission Central
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16.20 ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES
Bow Echo - won the 2000 Guineas with the highest rating since Frankel over a decade ago. I think he's a machine with a bit more to go before his peak. Unbeaten after four starts and it's nice to see an extremely good one not from Coolmore, Godolphin or Juddmonte for a change.
Gstaad - won the Coventry last year, then embarked on a run of seconds before winning at the Breeders' Cup. After running second to Bow Echo at Newmarket, he won the Irish equivalent with a similar level performance. Never out of the first two in eight starts, but might have to settle for second again.
Talk of New York - muffed his lines when trying to win the 2000 Guineas at Meydan off a 20-week spell, but since returning to Britain has been in fine form, winning a conditions race at Newmarket followed by a dominant win at Sandown in the Listed Heron Stakes. In the mix but facing two very good ones at the top of the market.
Puerto Rico - started odds-on in the Poule D'Essai de Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) a month ago when fourth with Moore on board. With Moore opting for Gstaad, he'll be ably replaced by Christophe Soumillon who won a pair of Group 1s on him in October. Probably makes the running and good enough to pinch it if left alone. Back to his best, he's a chance to be competitive but the main three rivals here are very strong.
VERDICT
A strong race and a shame that the French Guineas winner Rayif didn't make it across the Channel. I've been really impressed by Bow Echo and would love to see him take another step forward. Best bet of the week for me, and 4/5 in a six-horse race is acceptable.
BOW ECHO, Gstaad, Talk Of New York
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Ignoring the later races, there's only so much time in the day to do the form!
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