Back to earth on Thursday although at least we got our money back on Aix Le Chapelle. More time to do a four races today, although I'll take a pass on the handicaps - they take hours to do properly!
14.30 ALBANY STAKES
Dark Issue - debuted impressively at Goodwood, winning by a soft five lengths, has to be in the mix although low draw a negative.
Hidden Gift - was slow out of the gates on debut but flew home late to narrowly miss at Ripon a fortnight ago. Big odds but drawn the right side, has JMac aboard, you could do a lot worse.
Jolivette - won a Newmarket novice a fortnight ago without being knocked around but the proximity of the third horse is a concern, it was beaten a long way in the Windsor Castle on Wednesday. Half-sister to Jonquil.
King's Prize - won at Nottingham on debut but seemed more labouring than anything. Has had seven weeks off to further her racing education.
Kochella - Aussie owned and trained filly who ran once for Lemos de Souza who was minding the fort for Henry Dwyer. Did ok to run third on debut but was beaten by Boleto who was miles off them in the Windsor Castle.
Libertango - caught the eye winning on debut, creeping up through the field after a slow start, then unleashing a powerful burst when given a couple of taps with the persuader. 400k guineas breeze-up purchase in April, looks to have a bright future. Low draw a concern unless the bias dries up.
Light Of Dawn - kicked off her career with a win at Carlisle 11 days ago. The three rivals behind her had reasonable previous form, so that win has merit after going past them without much effort.
Love Is - only beaten 1.25L by Night In Vegas at Goodwood in a three-horse race, and that colt ran a close fifth in the Coventry on Tuesday. Won on debut at Windsor before that. Not out of it.
Silent Beauty - a €1m yearling, she beat a decent one by 4L on debut at Yarmouth. Early foal (January) which is important for 6f and beyond this early in the season.
Sun Goddess - flying Coolmore filly, so good they apparently debated whether to put her into the Queen Mary instead of Victorious. Got close to Carry The Flag (fav for the Norfolk on Saturday) on debut, then belted a maiden field at the Curragh. Unsurprisingly, the stable has a strong record in this. Clearly the one to beat.
Topaz - close up behind Jolivette on debut, running on late. If you give the Juddmonte filly a chance, this one won't be far away.
Valentina Bella - French filly who has won both her starts, including a Listed race at Bordeaux-la-Bouscat. Started both times at about 8/1 so either they don't know how good she is, or the trainer is underrated (not a name I've heard of before). Big ask to win this especially drawn the inside rail.
What A Girl Wants - winless after three starts but has been competitive against some decent types, also running against the boys each time. Unlikely to win but could be in for place money.
VERDICT
Victorious was impressive in the Queen Mary, Sun Goddess looks set to capture this one. By this end of the week, they usually start switching back to the inside. I hope so as Libertango is best of the rest for me and Dark Issue not far behind.
SUN GODDESS, Libertango, Dark Issue, Love Is
============
15.05 COMMONWEALTH CUP
Albert Einstein - hype horse of the century who just ain't that good. Beaten in two Listeds and a G3 this season. Still unders.
Aspect Island - tried his luck in the King Charles III on Tuesday and finished 16th. This isn't much easier.
Charles Darwin - has started Evens or shorter in all six races so far, winning four. Last time he lost his action and stopped very quickly in the G3 Lacken Stakes at Naas. It was enough for Ryan Moore to jump off. He won the Norfolk this time last year, but hasn't progressed.
Coppull - I backed him at 66/1 last year in the Coventry when he ran third and followed that up with a win in the G2 Richmond at Goodwood. Won the Commonwealth Cup Trial here six weeks ago. This field is stronger but he does relish this track. Chance.
Division - finished third behind Coppull here six weeks ago, beaten half a length, then a three-length second to Venetian Sun in the Sandy Lane at Haydock. Competitive but not assuming he automatically goes past Coppull after his last run.
Havana Hurricane - won the Windsor Castle last year but hasn't won since. Never far away but not quite G1 level.
My Calyx Cen - French raider winning his last four. Unlikely to win here based on formline through one British visitor in his last race, but hard to knock winning form.
Outfielder - swift US colt who runs for Amo Racing and Jayson Werth, a former baseball star. Finished four behind Venetian Sun in the G1 Prix Morny last year at Deauville, then flopped in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf behind Gstaad (didn't stay the mile?). Two runs this season has resulted in comfortable wins in Kentucky. Drawn 21 so will be suited if the grandstand rail bias is still there. Don't rule him out.
Samangan - winner of three from six, but French sprinting is generally weaker than Britain's. Beaten at 11/10 and 3/5 this season, time for a change of fortune at much bigger odds?
Song Of The Clyde - took a big step forward in winning the Listed Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury a month ago, ahead of several rivals here. Can be competitive.
Wise Approach - ran second in the Norfolk last season behind Charles Darwin, and kept improving for the rest of the season, running third in the Prix Morny (beaten half a length by Venetian Sun, ahead of Outfielder and Coppull) and then winning the G1 Middle Park. Hasn't found that form this season, running fifth to Coppull on resumption and then three lengths behind Song Of The Clyde at Newbury. No reason to think circumstances change today.
Havana Anna - ran second to True Love in the G1 Cheveley Park, then hated Del Mar for the Breeders Cup, running last of 1 in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Won the G3 Lacken Stakes a month ago at Naas, when Charles Darwin failed as even money fav. Don't think she's quite up to these.
Midnight Tango - ran second to Coppull in the Trial for this race six weeks ago. Last year's was steady but not up to top level, obviously better this season but unlikely to be enough.
Venetian Sun - a worthy clear favourite for this race. Her five wins have been over five or six furlongs, only when they've tried her in G1s over further has she been beaten. Won the G3 Albany, the G2 Duchess of Cambridge and the G1 Prix Morny last season, but showed she was no one-season wonder with a dominant win in the G2 Sandy Lane last month at Haydock. She's damn quick and can overcome the middle draw.
VERDICT
Venetian Sun should have been favourite along for this, and certainly demanded it after her Sandy Lane win. The Coolmore colts have had enough chances, so it's Outfielder and Coppull for the minors.
VENETIAN SUN, Outfielder, Coppull
=======
1620 CORONATION STAKES
Balantina - was 20/1 when winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last October. Hasn't raced since then. Was third behind Venetian Sun in the Albany last year. Ambitious to try and win this first-up.
Black Caviar Gold - blasphemous that they should be allowed to be even similar to the name of Australia's greatest sprinter. Has finished five and seven lengths behind Precise in two clashes, and nine behind True Love when those fillies were winners. Ran fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Nope.
Moon Target - unraced since the G1 Bet365 Fillies' Mile in October, 13L behind Precise. Finished second to the same filly earlier in the season, but has done nothing since to justify her rating.
Precise - disappointed in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in early May when fav but then made up for that by three weeks later in the Irish edition, beaten True Love by 2.5L. Has won five of seven, Ryan Moore aboard, clearly the one to beat.
Rose Ghaiyyath - started 50/1 in the 1000 Guineas and ran accordingly, then finished sixth of eight in a Listed fillies' race at Goodwood 12 days ago. Nope.
Sukanya - won the Fred Darling at 16/1 but then finished 16L last in the Irish 1000 Guineas. This is no easier.
Timeforshowcasing - won the Listed Burradon Stakes at Newcastle at Easter, finished 13L behind True Love in the Newmarket version of the 1000 Guineas and then won the German edition in Dusseldorf. Not up to these.
Touleen - second in the Fred Darling, then sixth in the 1000 Guineas behind True Love (second on her side of the track, and ahead of Precise). Always respect Owen Burrows at Royal Ascot but I don't think this one is quite there.
True Love - (English) Guineas winner but was rolled at odds-on in the Irish version with no excuses. Has won five from ten, with four second, her only failure was at the Breeders Cup when pushed to a 5f sprint (and Precise went to the Juv Turf but was a late non-runner).
VERDICT
The two Coolmore fillies are miles better than the rest.
PRECISE, True Love, daylight.
==========
17.35 KING EDWARD VII STAKES
Ancient Egypt - fancied this one in the Derby but faded late in the wet. Form before that was solid enough for this.
Causeway - not in the top bracket of Coolmore colts but has picked up a G3 and Listed at most recent starts and is entered for the Irish Derby plus several big races beyond that.
Echo Of Stars - beat Blue Hercules (long odds in the King George V) last time, not good enough for this.
Golden Story - just beat Del Maro who just missed in the Queen's Vase on Wednesday. Perhaps best of the rest.
Venetian Prince - scraped in on a heavy track in the Italian Derby but was beaten 19L in the 2000 Guineas before that. G2 in UK is about his level, so placed at best
Water To Wine - winner of both starts to date, including an 11L romp at Kempton (SP 1/12!) against trees (second horse then ran last in a weak race), the better formline is a 4L win in a Newbury maiden over the Derby fifth, Alderman. Ratings are behind Causeway but it's hard to rack up the numbers in weaker races rather than Pattern ones.
VERDICT
Causeway looks strong enough for this, I still like Ancient Egypt but it's tough backing up after the Derby, while Water To Wine could do anything.
CAUSEWAY, Ancient Egypt, Water To Wine.
Aidan O'Brien landed his 100th Royal Ascot winner yesterday, he could win several more on Friday. The Sun Goddess/Precise/Causeway treble is worth a look.
Comments
Post a Comment
Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.