Women's Olympic cycling preview

Here's @wheelie1977's look at the women's cycling programme...

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I wouldn't be getting overly carried away with women's racing as I don't follow it as much as I could. That said, some of the best racing out there on the track is in the women's events - there's a certain amount of pure hatred in it !

Track

Sprint & Keirin

I'll start off with Anna Meares versus Victoria Pendleton. This should be the most interesting of the events as there's no love lost. Some of you may have watched the recent documentary on Pendleton and she's quite a brittle character behind it all. However she's got the leading sports scientist returning to her team (also her fiancee) and the team behind her is stellar so she will be in the best form of her life going into the event. Everyone agrees that she is probably the best of them all when in form and that includes the Aussie Meares.

It stands to reason then that if you believe that she can get back to her form of the last Olympics, Pendleton stands a very good chance of a double gold. The World Champs would have been Pendleton at 85% and she won Gold in the Sprint but was surprisingly beaten in the Keirin Heats. I wouldn't think she'll make that mistake in London and I make her at least a joint favourite and certainly not a general 4/1

I think it's a 2 horse race in the Sprint and again I think home form may help Pendleton and so I'm predicting a double Gold for the Queen of British cycling.

Advised Bet

Keirin 1pt @ 4/1 Vicky Pendleton
Sprint 1pt @ 2/1 Vicky Pendleton

Team Sprint

Two World Records in 2012 World Champs against the home nation and still Germany are second favourites? It wasn't even a shock result, they were savagely quick. Anna Meares was 3/10ths of a second up on the first standing lap but still the Aussies lost 4/10 to Vogel on the second lap - that's an astonishing turn around and can be looked at in 2 ways. Either the Aussie Number 2 was off form or the Germans were sizzling. I'm thinking maybe a bit of both and we should see a right battle but I'll stick with the World Champs and World Record Holders at the prices.

Advised Bet

Germany 1pt @ 15/8 (Coral, William Hill)

Omnium

Laura Trott is a brilliant young cyclist. I'm not looking any further than her. if you get a chance have a look at the Elimination race in the World Champs, one of the best displays I've ever seen!

Advised Bet

Laura Trott 2.5pts @ 2/1 Boylesports

Women's Time Trial

Judith Arndt and Emma Pooley go head to head on a flat course and the power of the German should see her through. She's a big time Championship performer and current World Champion.

Advised Bet

2pts Judith Arndt @ 9/4 in BWIN (2/1 Generally)

Women's Road Race

This may well end in a bunch finish and my money goes then on the American Shelley Olds who is one of the quickest riders in the ladies peleton. Although all eyes will be on Marianne Vos, the Dutch woman serially under performs at big Championships - she's a 4 time silver medallist at the World Championships despite being the best rider in the World. If it comes to a sprint she will medal again but it's quite open between 3 of them - I include Georgia Bronzini who would be outright favourite if a bunch sprint is imminent. The recent Giro Donne shows there's not much between all 3 but at the prices Olds make a lot of appeal.

Advised Bet

Shelley Olds
1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Pays 1,2,3) Ladbrokes, Boylesports

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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